EPCR Challenge Cup Predictions – Semi-finals

We’re down to the final four in Europe’s second-tier club competition, and with the final in Bilbao beckoning, players are braced to pour their blood, sweat and tears into their semi-final showdowns.

Up first is a battle between Ulster and the Exeter Chiefs in Belfast on Saturday, before Montpellier play host to the Dragons in the South of France on Sunday.

Ulster v Exeter Chiefs

Saturday, 2 May – 18:30

While both of these clubs have won the Investec Champions Cup before, they’re out to reach their maiden Challenge Cup final.

Ulster have gone from strength to strength this season and made light work of La Rochelle in the quarter-finals, toppling the French giants 41-24. The Chiefs, meanwhile, travelled to Treviso for their last-eight encounter and edged hosts Benetton 44-41.

Both sides put a premium on attack and are lethal in their own ways. As well as boasting 27 tries so far, the Ulstermen’s 51 line breaks have had other sides under their spell throughout. Winger Zac Ward tops the competition’s defenders-beaten standings (27), with the side boasting 144 overall.

Not to be outdone, their opponents from Devonshire have also dotted down 27 tries, and, armed with the likes of Immanuel Feyi-Waboso – who’s made a competition-best 405 metres, as well as 10 clean breaks and 19 defenders beaten – they’ve made almost 2,500 metres so far this season.

As much as this looks set to be an exciting shootout, defence wins championships and will decide this one. In that regard, Ulster have shown greater grit. Add the fact that they’ll be in their element at home, where they’ve won eight of their last 10 games, and the Irish outfit should pip it.

Prediction: Ulster by 3.

Montpellier v Dragons

Whereas the first semi-final is essentially a pick ‘em, the second is anything but, as it pits a high-flying French side against Welsh minnows in the bottom two of the United Rugby Championship.

It was clear from the start that Montpellier are men on a mission. The two-time champions earned themselves the number one seed of the pool stage and continued their march to the semis with dominant knockout wins over Perpignan (53-13) and Connacht (45-22).

They’ve scored 34 tries so far — the second-highest tally in the competition — and accumulated 217 points. They’re hard to contain going forward too, with 746 carries, 2,902 metres made and 139 defenders beaten. With their class, pedigree and dominant form, they are firm favourites to clinch their third title.

Meanwhile, not even the most die-hard of Dragons supporters would’ve predicted their team would make it to the final four. Without a win in a year prior to the pool stage, the Challenge Cup brought with it a change in fortunes for the Newport side.

Having defeated last season’s runners-up Lyon, as well as Stade Français and Zebre away from home so far, they’ve emerged as giant slayers and are back in the semi-finals for the first time in 10 years.

They’ve impressed with their relentlessness at the breakdown, winning 37 turnovers, and are quick to transform momentum into attack, clocking up 811 passes (third highest) and 136 defenders beaten.

It’s been a fairy tale campaign for the gutsy Dragons, but instead of reaching a first-ever Challenge Cup final, they’re in for a reality check. Montpellier are simply in another class and are unbeaten at home since November, so bank on the Héraultais to march on.

Prediction: Montpellier by 21.