Investec Champions Cup Predictions – Semi-finals

Two titans of French rugby, Irish giants and English champions remain in the race for the richest prize in club rugby and are one step away from punching their ticket to the Bilbao final.

In the first of the weekend’s two seismic showdowns, Leinster play host to Toulon in Dublin on Saturday, while defending champions Bordeaux Begles welcome Bath to the Stade Atlantique Bordeaux Metropole on Sunday.   

Leinster v Toulon

Saturday, 2 May – 16:00

The consistent colossal force from Ireland face off against the dark horses from France in the first semi-final.

Leinster have stormed through the competition unbeaten and booked their sixth successive final four appearance with a 43-13 win over the Sale Sharks in the quarter-finals.

Toulon, meanwhile, were fortunate to sneak past the Stormers in the Round of 16, with a decisive decision at the death going their way and seeing them hang on for a 28-27 win.

However, there was nothing lucky about their 22-19 upset win over the Warriors in Glasgow, a stunning result in every sense that has them set to play in their first Champions Cup semi-final in 11 years.

They are by no means a small fish in a big pond, having won the competition three times, but given their lukewarm form prior to hitting their straps in Scotland last time out, they’ve emerged as dark horses and are daring to dream of a fourth star.   

As much as benches have become increasingly important to determining the outcome of games, this duel in Dublin will be decided early. Leinster are known as fast starters and when the reigning United Rugby Championship champions get going, there’s no stopping them.

On the flip side, considering how the Irish giants have crashed out at the semi-final stage twice and lost the final three times since 2021, they’d feel the pressure and might just implode if the visitors are able to race into a lead. 

Toulon will put their best foot forward, but Leinster are looking great and should return to the championship game after tripping up at this stage last season.

Prediction: Leinster by 13.

Suggested Bet: Leinster -10 at 1.90.

Bordeaux Begles v Bath

Sunday, 3 May – 16:00

One of the most anticipated club games in recent memory, the second semi-final is an epic clash of champions. It’s the defending Champions Cup kings against the reigning EPCR Challenge Cup, PREM and Premiership Rugby Cup champions.

It’s a star-studded affair, with four of the five men shortlisted for the Player of the Year award among the elite talent who’ll be on show, namely Bordeaux duo Matthieu Jalibert and Louis Bielle-Biarrey and the Bath pair of Finn Russel and Alfie Barbeary.

In imperious form and having cemented themselves as the top seeds, unbeaten Bordeaux blew the Leicester Tigers away 64-14 in the Round of 16 before facing the toughest test in all of club rugby in the quarter-finals – their French rivals Toulouse.

Forget about the thrilling dominance that had preceded that. It was in the last-eight encounter that they showed their championship class, overcoming adversity after trailing 15-5 to run out emphatic 30-15 winners over the record six-time Champions Cup winners.

Bath had to come from behind to win both of their playoff games, but they fully deserve their place in the final four. After overturning a 10-point halftime deficit, they beat three-time winners Saracens 31-22, and then completed one of the competition’s all-time great comebacks to edge last season’s runners-up the Northampton Saints 43-41.

It goes without saying that Johann van Graan’s men will prioritise getting off to a better start, but even if they do fall behind early, their never-say-die heroics this season have shown they’re never out of a fight. That said, Bordeaux have unrivalled class, balance and depth and should set up a mouth-watering final against Leinster.

Prediction: Bordeaux Begles by 12.

Suggested Bet: Bordeaux Begles -11 at 1.90.