Springboks vs New Zealand: Preview and Predictions 

The Springboks and New Zealand meet for the fourth and final Test of Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry on Saturday, 12 September. South Africa is looking to finish the series on a high in Baltimore. 

The Springboks lead the four-match series 2-1 after beating the All Blacks 29-24 at FNB Stadium last weekend. While South Africa have already secured the series, Rassie Erasmus’ side will be determined to end the historic contest with another victory. New Zealand will be desperate to level the series at 2-2. 

So, the question on everyone’s mind is, will the Springboks take home the whole trophy, or will it be split between the two teams?  

Why This Match Matters So Much   

South Africa can complete the series with three consecutive victories after losing the opening Test. New Zealand have the opportunity to leave the United States with a 2-2 draw. The All Blacks also have plenty of pride on the line after South Africa fought back from an opening defeat to win the next two Tests. 

The third Test underlined just how little separates these top two ranked teams. South Africa won 29-24 despite New Zealand scoring four tries. The Springboks’ physicality, set-piece pressure, and ability to control key moments ultimately proved decisive. 

The Baltimore Test also gives both sides an opportunity to make history, with M&T Bank Stadium hosting a major international rugby match in the United States. 

Tactical Overview  

The tactical battle should once again centre on South Africa’s power against New Zealand’s speed and attacking width. 

The Springboks will look to establish territory through their forwards, build pressure through the set piece, and force the All Blacks to defend repeated phases close to their own line. Their maul and carrying game were important in Johannesburg, while Malcolm Marx’s second-half try demonstrated the value of South Africa’s forward platform. 

New Zealand, meanwhile, will want quicker ball and more opportunities in space. The All Blacks looking to move the ball rapidly and use their dangerous outside backs before South Africa can establish its defensive line. 

Team News 

South Africa have made two changes to the side that defeated New Zealand 29-24 in Johannesburg. 

Damian Willemse returns at fullback in place of Cheslin Kolbe, who suffered a broken jaw during the third Test and has been ruled out of the Baltimore match. Morné van den Berg has also been promoted into the starting XV at scrumhalf, with Cobus Reinach moving to the bench. 

Kolbe is the only Springbok confirmed as unavailable for the Baltimore Test because of an injury suffered during last weekend’s match. Damian Willemse has been cleared to return after previously missing the third Test with a hamstring injury. 

New Zealand have suffered a much larger injury blow. Captain Ardie Savea suffered a dislocated shoulder, Quinn Tupaea sustained an MCL knee injury, and Luke Jacobson suffered an elbow tendon injury during the third Test. All three have been ruled out of the final match and did not travel to the United States. 

Players to Watch  

Damien Willemse (Springboks)  

Damian Willemse returns to the Springboks starting XV at fullback after missing the third Test with a hamstring injury. Willemse’s versatility, attacking ability, and composure under pressure could be crucial in Baltimore. He offers the Springboks another playmaking option from the back, while his ability to join the attacking line can create extra numbers against an All Blacks defence that is expected to be reshaped for the final Test.  

TBC (New Zealand)  

Starting Lineup (Springboks)  

1. Ox Nche 

2. Malcolm Marx 

3. Wilco Louw 

4. Eben Etzebeth 

5. Ruan Norje 

6. Siya Kolisi (C) 

7. Pieter-Steph du Toit 

8. Jasper Wiese 

9. Morne van den Berg 

10. Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu 

11. Ethan Hooker 

12. Damian de Allende 

13. Jesse Kriel 

14. Kurt-Lee Arendse 

15. Damian Willemse 

Replacements  

16. Deon Fourie 

17. Gerhard Steenekamp 

18. Thomas du Toit 

19. Lood de Jager 

20. Andre Esterhuizen 

21. Cameron Hanekom 

22. Cobus Reinach 

23. Manie Libbok  

Starting Lineup (New Zealand)  

TBC 

Match Details 

Date: 12 September 2026  

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore 

Kick-off Time: 23:00pm  

TV: SuperSport  

Prediction  

South Africa look well placed to finish the series with another victory. The Springboks have retained the majority of the side that beat New Zealand in Johannesburg, while the All Blacks head into the final Test without captain Ardie Savea, Quinn Tupaea, and Luke Jacobson. 

New Zealand still have enough attacking quality to make this a close contest. However, South Africa’s continuity, forward power, and greater experience in managing pressure situations give them the edge. 

Prediction: Springboks to win 

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