Lions vs New Zealand: Preview and Predictions 

The Lions take on New Zealand in the final provincial fixture of the historic Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry tour. The Johannesburg side heads into the match desperate to end a three-match losing streak in the 2026 Carling Currie Cup. The All Blacks arrive at Ellis Park full of confidence after an unbeaten tour through South Africa so far.  

After victories over the Stormers, Sharks and Bulls, New Zealand made an even bigger statement by beating the Springboks 33-16 in the opening Test of the series. That result extended the All Blacks’ winning streak to four matches on tour and underlined why they’re one of the favourites heading into Rugby World Cup 2027.  

For the Lions, this is a chance to restore pride in front of a packed Ellis Park crowd and prove they can compete with one of rugby’s biggest powerhouses. 

Why This Match Matters So Much   

The Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry tour marks New Zealand’s first full tour of South Africa in 30 years. It brings back the traditional provincial matches that helped define rugby history. Alongside four Tests against the Springboks, the All Blacks have faced South Africa’s top franchises, with the Lions now getting the final shot.  

The Lions have endured a difficult Carling Currie Cup campaign and enter this fixture on a losing streak after several disappointing results. Their confidence has taken a knock, and facing the All Blacks is arguably the toughest Test possible. 

New Zealand, meanwhile, have looked sharper with every outing. Their attack has been clinical, their defence relentless, and they’ve shown they can handle both franchise opposition and Test rugby intensity. After defeating South Africa in the opening Test, momentum is firmly on their side.  

A win for the Lions would be one of the biggest provincial upsets in recent South African rugby history. 

Tactical Overview  

This match is likely to be decided by tempo versus territory. 

The Lions are at their best when they move the ball quickly and attack from broken play. Expect them to play with pace from scrum-half, target the All Blacks’ edges with quick passing, and use Ellis Park’s altitude to keep the tempo high. They’ll also need a much-improved defensive effort after conceding heavily during recent Currie Cup matches. 

The All Blacks have embraced a fast, multi-phase attacking style throughout this tour. They’ve consistently looked to keep the ball alive through multiple phases, attack space with pace rather than relying solely on kicking, and pressure opponents with an aggressive defensive line. This approach caused major problems for the Springboks in the first Test and has overwhelmed every South African franchise they’ve faced so far.  

So, if New Zealand dominate possession and recycle the ball quickly, the Lions could struggle to contain their attacking depth. 

Players to Watch  

Francke Horn (Lions)  

The Lions will need a huge performance from captain Francke Horn if they’re to pull off an upset against the All Blacks. Starting at No. 8, Horn will be central to the Lions’ work at the breakdown, while his carrying and defensive work will be crucial against New Zealand’s physical pack. As captain, he’ll also have the responsibility of keeping the Lions composed and competitive throughout the 80 minutes.

Richie Mo’unga (New Zealand)  

All eyes will be on Richie Mo’unga as he makes his long-awaited return to the All Blacks starting XV. The flyhalf will play his first match for New Zealand since the 2023 Rugby World Cup final when he lines up against the Lions at Ellis Park.

Mo’unga’s experience and creativity could be crucial for an All Blacks side looking to maintain their winning momentum. With Beauden Barrett at fullback and a dangerous backline outside him, the Lions will have their hands full trying to contain New Zealand’s attack.

Starting Lineup (Lions)  

1. SJ Kotze 

2. PJ Botha 

3. Sebastian Lomard 

4. Etienne Oosthuizen 

5. Ruan Delport 

6. Siba Mahashe 

7. Batho Hlekani 

8. Francke Horn (C) 

9. Nico Steyn 

10. Chris Smith 

11. Erich Croje 

12. Richard Kriel 

13. Henco van Wyk 

14. Kelly Mpeku 

15. Quan Horn  

Replacements  

16. Morne Brandon 

17. Boan Venter 

18. RF Schoeman 

19. Hyron Andrews 

20. Sikhumbuzo Notshe 

21. JC Pretorius 

22. Haashim Pead 

23. Boeta Chamberlain  

Starting Lineup (New Zealand)  

1. Siale Lauaki 

2. Samisoni Taukei’aho 

3. Pasilio Tosi 

4. Sam Darry 

5. Patrick Tuipulotu (C) 

6. Wallace Sititi 

7. Ethan Blackadder 

8. Semisi Ta’eiloa 

9. Noah Hotham 

10. Richie Mo’unga 

11. Emoni Narawa 

12. Timoci Tavatavanawai  

13. Rieko Ioane 

14. Fehi Fineanganofo 

15. Beuden Barrett 

Replacements  

16. Bradley Slater 

17. Pfa Tu’ungafasi 

18. Saula Ma’u 

19. Jamie Hannah 

20. Peter Lakai 

21. Kyle Preston 

22. Josh Jacomb 

23. Anton Lienert-Brown  

Match Details 

Date: 25 August 2026  

Venue: 10bet Ellis Park 

Kick-off Time: 19:00pm  

TV: SuperSport  

Prediction  

The Lions will have home support and altitude on their side, but recent form heavily favours the visitors. New Zealand have already beaten three South African franchises and followed it up with a convincing victory over the Springboks in the opening Test, showing they’re adapting well to conditions in South Africa.  

The Lions are capable of scoring points, but stopping the All Blacks for 80 minutes is a far bigger challenge. The All Blacks should have too much quality, experience, and momentum to leave Ellis Park with anything other than another tour victory. 

Prediction: New Zealand to win  

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