Formula 1: Miami Grand Prix Preview and Predictions

The fast-flowing street circuit around the Hard Rock Stadium offers plenty of overtaking opportunities and with the updated rules in play for the first time there’s a lot to look out for.

19-year-old Kimi Antonelli leads the world championship from Mercedes teammate George Russell, but the German team’s dominance is under threat with several teams announcing upgrades for the first US GP of 2026. Let’s take a look at what to expect this weekend.

Track Stats

The Miami International Autodrome is a semi-street circuit with long straights, tight chicanes, and tricky braking zones.

The layout, which runs through sections of public roads and the stadium’s parking areas, measures 5.412 kilometres and is raced over 57 laps.

It rewards straight-line speed and confidence under braking, but it can punish mistakes harshly thanks to its unforgiving walls.

Tyre management and safety cars often play a role here. According to Pirelli, the asphalt, resurfaced in 2023, has a low level of roughness and gains grip over the course of the weekend as the track evolves.

Tyre degradation in Miami has always been limited, thanks to the characteristics of the circuit, allowing drivers to extend their stints and make just a single pit stop during the race.

Who are the favourites

Last year’s race saw Oscar Piastri take a straightforward victory, but this year should be a wide-open affair as Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull look to have a better understanding of their cars.

The favourite for the race is Russell, with Antonelli not far behind. Mercedes’ car has been nothing short of flawless in 2026 so far, bagging all three GP wins.

McLaren and Ferrari will be outside bets to get their first wins in 2026. Charles Leclerc and Piastri have strong past performances in Miami to justify taking a chance on them for the win.

Podium places up for grabs?

Perhaps you are looking for markets with better value and the podium has that compared to outright winners.

Drivers to watch include seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton who has been consistent and opportunistic this season.

A wildcard is William’s driver Carlos Sainz who is quietly effective and often overlooked in odds.

Oscar Piastri is a strong contender for a podium spot if he hooks up a clean weekend, he could sneak into the top three.

Other prop bets to consider are Safety Car and first retirement. We think there will be a SC and the first will likely be a midfield team as their reliability is still shaky.

Predictions

Grand Prix Winner: Antonelli

Grand Prix Podium: Antonelli, Piastri, Leclerc

Pole Position: Leclerc

Top 4 and 5: Hamilton, Norris

Finish in the points: Lindblad, Hadjar, Gasly, Bearman

Race Winning Margin: Under 5 seconds

Fastest Lap: Russell

First to Retire: Stroll, Alonso, Bottas, Perez

First car to retire: Aston Martin , Cadillac

Most Team Points: Mercedes

Both Cars Qualify for Q3 Shootout: McLaren

Practice 1/2/3 Winning Car: Russell / Mercedes