UFC 315: Muhammad v Della Maddalena Predictions

The co-headliner will see flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko face off against Manon Fiorot, while the legendary Jose Aldo battles fellow top-15 bantamweight contender Aiemann Zahabi in the featured bout.

Plus, Alexa Grasso and Natalia Silva square off at flyweight, and lightweights Benoit Saint Denis and Kyle Prepolec promise to light up the Octagon.

MAIN CARD

Belal Muhammad (1.53) v Jack Della Maddalena (2.40) (Welterweight Championship)

When: Sunday, May 11, 4 AM SAST

Two men who have forgotten how to lose top the marquee in a battle for the welterweight title.

Muhammad (24-3) is unbeaten since 2019, a golden 11-fight win streak that culminated in him being crowned the 170-pound champion following a dominant decision victory over Leon Edwards last July.

He had to take the hard road to the title and ran the gauntlet exceedingly well. While not the most exciting fighter with his wrestling-heavy style and lack of knockout power, he’s perfected his high-pressure approach and toppled big names like Gilbert Burns, Sean Brady, Vicente Luque, Stephen Thompson and Damian Maia en route to ultimate glory.

Della Maddalena (17-2) doesn’t have the same strength of schedule as the champion but has nevertheless scored some notable wins and established himself as the real deal. In a good example of believing in oneself, the Australian lost his first two professional fights but has racked up 17 wins in a row since. 

Unbeaten since 2016, the danger man from Down Under is a perfect 7-0 inside the Octagon and got past high-level competition like Burns, Kevin Holland and Randy Brown. He showed just how determined and tough he is in his most recent fight against Burns last March, knocking out the Brazilian despite having a broken arm.

Having recovered, he aims to achieve his dream of capturing UFC gold. In contrast to Muhammad, Della Maddalena is a finisher of note with 14 stoppage wins, including a dozen knockouts. The 28-year-old is one of the best boxers in the UFC and will look to keep the fight on the feet where he has superior power and technique.

When it comes to striking, Muhammad is solid and intelligent. What makes “Remember The Name” so successful is his ability to mix striking and grappling seamlessly and relentlessly. Weaponising his cyborg-like conditioning, few can keep up with the pressure the 36-year-old pushes.

As I mentioned, he’s mastered this style, so he knows exactly how to defuse, outwork and outsmart a fighter like Della Maddalena. The challenger, with his knockout power and resilience, is never out of a fight, but Burns laid the blueprint on how to beat him before he got caught, and it happens to be smothering him with wrestling.

As a result, I expect Muhammed to do what he does over 25 minutes to hold onto the gold.

Prediction: Muhammed by decision.
Best Bet: Muhammed by decision at 2.00.
Alternative Bet: Muhammed at 1.53.

Valentina Shevchenko (2.10) v Manon Fiorot (1.70) (Flyweight Championship)

The best female pound-for-pound fighter in the world, Shevchenko (24-4-1) looks to kick off her second reign as flyweight champion in style in the co-headliner.

One of the all-time greats, “Bullet” has wowed fans with wins over former champions Alexa Grasso, Jessica Andrade and Joanna Jedrzejczyk as well as current bantamweight champion Julianna Pena but knows she has a hungry, streaking challenger in front of her.

A technical master, Fiorot (12-1) is riding a 12-fight win streak with Erin Blanchfield, ex-champion Rose Namajunas and Katlyn Cerminara being among her victims. She looks to make history by becoming the first French fighter to capture an undisputed UFC title.

Shevchenko is rarely the underdog, and one has to jump on the chance whenever you can get the Kyrgyzstan ace at plus money. As efficient as Fiorot is at point-fighting, Shevchenko has the complete game to disrupt her rhythm and slay “The Beast.”

Prediction: Shevchenko by decision.
Best Bet: Shevchenko at 2.10.
Alternative Bet: Shevchenko by decision at 3.00.

Jose Aldo (1.45) v Aiemann Zahabi (2.65) (Bantamweight)

Brazilian icon Aldo (32-9) aims to return to winning ways when he battles Montreal’s own Zahabi (12-2) in a clash of top-15 bantamweights.

Aldo, one of the greatest featherweights of all time, is 4-4 since he dropped to bantamweight in 2019 and 1-1 since coming out of retirement, following up a win over Jonathan Martinez with a controversial split decision loss to Mario Bautista last October.

Just one year older than his opponent, the 38-year-old “King of Rio” is still a tough out with his elite technical striking, legendary takedown defence and wealth of experience and is just outside of the top 10 in 11th place.

Three places below the Hall of Famer in the rankings, Zahabi is on a five-fight win streak. He’s an intelligent striker but lacks elite-level experience, with his most high-profile win coming over Pedro Munhoz last time out in November.

Aldo has in recent years only struggled against grapplers who pin him up against the side of the Octagon, and Zahabi doesn’t fall into that category. In what promises to be a stand-up battle, bank on Aldo to get the nod on the judges’ scorecards.

Prediction: Aldo by decision.
Best Bet: Aldo by decision at 1.80.
Alternative Bet: Aldo by 1.45.

Alexa Grasso (2.85) v Natalia Silva (1.40) (Flyweight)

Returning for the first time since her title loss to Shevchenko last September, Grasso (16-4-1) seeks to cement herself as the No. 1 contender with a win over fifth-ranked Silva (18-5-1).

Grasso is a crisp boxer with good footwork. Her grappling and, more importantly, ability to mix striking with takedowns serve her well and saw her shock the world with her title-winning submission of Shevchenko before fighting to a draw in the rematch and losing the third encounter by decision.

A dynamic kickboxer, Silva is a perfect 6-0 since joining the UFC in 2022 and is on a 12-fight win streak overall dating back to 2017. She beat former champion Jessica Andrade last time out to prove she’s the real deal and could earn a title shot with a win here.

Silva has the better attacking and defensive stats, a wider striking arsenal and boasts 91% takedown defence. Throw in her momentum, and she should secure the biggest win of her career.

Prediction: Silva by decision.
Best Bet: Silva by decision at 1.72.
Alternative Bet: Silva at 1.40.

Benoit Saint Denis (1.08) v Kyle Prepolec (7.00) (Lightweight)

Saint Denis (13-3) has been thrown a late Canadian curveball after his original opponent, Joel Alvarez, was forced to withdraw due to injury on Monday.

Replacing Alvarez is Prepolec (18-8), who makes his UFC return riding a three-fight win streak, with all those wins coming by way of first-round knockout. Both men like to stand and bang, so this should be an exciting main card opener.

A kill-or-be-killed fighter, Saint Denis was on a five-fight win streak and closing in on a title shot before being stopped by the legendary Dustin Poirier last March. A stoppage loss to Renato Moicano followed six months later, leaving him desperate for a win.

The former French Army Special Forces paratrooper lives up to his “God of War” moniker with a 100% finish rate (four knockouts and nine submissions). He’s a massive step up in competition for Prepolec, especially on such short notice, and should get back in the win column in style.

Prediction: Saint Denis by knockout.
Best Bet: Saint Denis by KO/TKO/DQ (check markets).