UFC Fight Night: Cannonier v Rodrigues Predictions

The co-headliner between No. 10-ranked Calvin Kattar and Youssef Zalal is one of three featherweight fights on the main card. The other two tilts at 145 pounds will see Edmen Shahbazyan battle Dylan Budka and Connor Matthews meet Jose Delgado.

Plus, Ismael Bonfim squares off against Nazim Sadykhov at lightweight and Rodolfo Vieira faces Andre Petroski at middleweight.

MAIN CARD

When: Sunday, February 16, 2:00 AM SAST

Jared Cannonier (2.75) v Gregory Rodrigues (1.42) (Middleweight)

Dangerous middleweights on opposite trajectories collide in the main event.

Cannonier (17-8) is no ordinary UFC fighter. He’s had success at heavyweight, light heavyweight and middleweight, he’s fought for the 185-pound title and he’s heading into his eighth main event.

He’s a feared veteran with concussive power and a wealth of experience. For years, he’s been a staple of the middleweight elite, with the legendary Anderson Silva, Derek Brunson and Jack Hermansson among his 10 knockout victims.

He also holds a win over former champion Sean Strickland and holds the record for the most significant strikes landed in a middleweight fight with 241, a feat he produced in his decision victory over fellow former title challenger Marvin Vettori in 2023.

However, the 40-year-old has run into difficulties as of late, losing both of his bouts last year. He suffered a knockout loss to Nassourdine Imavov in June followed by a decision loss to Caio Borralho in August.

“The Killa Gorilla” is always a threat, but with his back against the wall, he’ll be more dangerous than ever this weekend as he fights to keep his No. 7 ranking.

Rodrigues (16-5), with respect, is not someone you’d consider a UFC main eventer. He hasn’t done anything particularly noteworthy, aside from overcoming the nastiest cut you’ll ever see in his comeback win over Chidi Njokuani in 2022.

He’s never looked like cracking the top 15 and the “biggest” name he holds a victory over is veteran Brad Tavares. Just looking at the numbers, though, “Robocop” has put in solid work. He’s won seven of his nine UFC fights and is on a three-fight win streak, most recently picking up a decision win over Christian Leroy Duncan this past July.

The 32-year-old’s current form sees him head into this headlining bout as the favourite, which suits me just fine as I have faith in Cannonier. Rodrigues has never faced anyone remotely as good as Cannonier and doesn’t have the speed and swiftness that enabled Imavov and Borralho to beat him.

Considering the elite-level strikers Cannonier’s faced in the past, he’s unlikely to get caught by something big by Rodrigues, who doesn’t bring anything special to the table in the striking department and is more of a grappler. On that front, Cannonier should be able to keep the fight on the feet for the most part as he’s powerful and has solid takedown defence.

The value is firmly on Cannonier, who I see returning to winning ways against a solid but outmatched Rodrigues.

Prediction: Cannonier by knockout.
Best Bet: Cannonier at 2.75.

Calvin Kattar (4.00) v Youssef Zalal (1.22) (Featherweight)

Once looking like a possible future title contender, Kattar (23-8) hasn’t been the same since the hiding he got from the great Max Holloway in 2021.

Since then, he’s only won one fight, finds himself on a three-fight losing streak and is in danger of falling out of the top 10. The last time we saw him in action was when he was controlled and outworked by Aljamain Sterling last April. 

At his best, “The Boston Finisher” is a high-level boxer but hasn’t evolved beyond that, which has seen the sport pass him by. At 36, he’s lost speed, both when it comes to speed of movement and hand speed, and is firmly in a downward spiral.

In contrast, Zalal (16-5-1) is on a six-fight win streak, all by stoppage. “The Moroccan Devil” is in his prime at 28 and an exceptional grappler, while his striking has come a long way in a short period of time.

It’s his grappling that’ll see him get the job done in this one, though, as he should blanket Kattar to pick up the biggest win of his career.

Prediction: Zalal by decision.
Best Bet: Zalal by decision.

Edmen Shahbazyan v Dylan Budka (Featherweight)

An explosive and exciting striker with 11 knockouts to his name, Shahbazyan (13-5) seeks to get back on track after winning just two of his last seven fights.

“The Golden Boy” started his career with 11 straight wins, including over Tavares, but was unable to step up to the next level, losing to top talent like Brunson, Hermansson and Imavov.

After a mixed 2024 in which he stopped AJ Dobson and was submitted by Gerald Meerschaert, he’s keen to kick off 2025 on the right note.

This is a favourable match-up for him as Budka (7-4) has failed to impress inside the Octagon. “The Mindless Hulk” went 0-2 in his first year in the UFC in 2024, suffering losses to Cesar Almeida and Petroski, and to make matters worse, he missed weight for the latter bout.

He presents little danger and as such, Shahbazyan should walk and gun him down.

Prediction: Shahbazyan by knockout.
Best Bet: Shahbazyan by KO/TKO/DQ.

Ismael Bonfim (1.45) v Nazim Sadykhov (2.62) (Lightweight)

Ultra-dynamic, Bonfim (20-4) is a master blaster in the making. One only needs to look at his spectacular knockout of Terrance McKinney in his UFC debut as proof of the beautiful violence he’s capable of.

Though he lost to Benoit Saint-Denis in his next fight, “Marreta” was able to rebound with a decision victory over Vinc Pichel last May and sees his 2025 campaign opener as a chance to start a streak. To do so, he’ll have to keep the fight standing as all of his losses have come by submission. 

Sadykhov (9-1-1) has looked good so far in the UFC, registering stoppage wins over Evan Elder and McKinney and a draw against Viacheslav Borshchev. “Black Wolf” is a solid southpaw striker, although not as athletic and active as his opponent, and has decent takedown ability.

In what’s close to a pick ‘em, the speed, reach and experience of Bonfim should see him bank the win. 

Prediction: Bonfim by decision.
Best Bet: Bonfim at 1.45.

Rodolfo Vieira (1.38) v Andre Petroski (2.95) (Middleweight)

Like a moth to a flame. That describes the dynamic in this fight.

Petroski (12-3) is a wrestler whose game plan is to take and hold an opponent down. The problem for him is Vieira (10-2) is a submission specialist who’s super dangerous on the ground.

Known as “The Black Belt Hunter”, Vieira has a 100% finish rate including nine submissions and won his last two bouts, against Cody Brundage and Armen Petrosyan, by arm triangle choke.

Petroski (12-3) has eight finishes to his credit, split evenly between knockouts and submissions, but he’s gone the distance in his last two fights, wins over Joshua Fremd and Budka.

He’ll have to fight within himself and keep takedowns to a minimum to limit the danger, but Vieira – a multi-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion – is so slick in getting the fight to where he wants it that I see him claiming another tapout win.

Prediction: Vieira by submission.
Best Bet: Vieira by submission

Connor Matthews (3.50) v Jose Delgado (1.28) (Featherweight)

All eyes will be on Delgado (8-1) as he makes his UFC debut in the main card opener.

Naturally aggressive and well-rounded with a ton of potential, Delgado has a 100% finish rate (four knockouts and four submissions) and is on a six-fight win streak. He earned his UFC contract with a knockout win over Ernie Juarez on Dana White’s Contender Series this past August.

Matthews (7-2), who’s mainly a grappler and has five wins by submission, is looking for his first triumph in the UFC after being knocked out by Dennis Buzukja in his promotional debut last March.

Delgado is not only the bigger man (he has a three-inch height and two-inch reach advantage) but has also displayed better cardio, which, along with his superior striking, should see him melt Matthews.  

Prediction: Delgado by knockout.
Best Bet: Delgado by KO/TKO/DQ.