UFC Fight Night: Burns v Malott Predictions

Malott headlines a Canadian quartet who will showcase their skills on the main card. The other locals set to throw down are Charles Jourdain, who collides with Kyler Phillips at bantamweight in the co-main event, promotional newcomer Mandel Nallo, who meets Jai Herbert at lightweight, and Jasmine Jasudavicius, who squares off against Karine Silva.

Plus, Thiago Moises goes toe-to-toe with Gauge Young at 155 pounds, and Dennis Buzukja welcomes Marcio Barbosa to the Octagon at 145 pounds.

MAIN CARD:

Sunday, April 19, 2 AM SAST

Gilbert Burns (3.55) v Mike Malott (1.28) (Welterweight)

The fight game is a dog-eat-dog business. Only the strongest survive, and those who lose a step are unmercifully and painfully put to pasture.

Brazil’s Burns (22-9) has been a staple in the welterweight elite for years and fought for the title back in 2021, coming up short in a knockout loss to then-champion Kamaru Usman.

Since then, he’s scored some big wins over Stephan Thompson, Neil Magny and former BMF champion Jorge Masvidal, and gave undefeated reigning middleweight king Khamzat Chimaev the toughest fight of his career.

However, with his career winding down, “Durinho” has dropped off the pace. He hasn’t won a fight in three years and is desperate to snap a career-worst four-fight losing streak in the Great White North.

It must be said that all four of those defeats were against the cream of the crop at 170 pounds – former champions Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena, as well as Sean Brady and the unbeaten Michael Morales.

Having slipped out of the top 10, 11th-ranked Burns now faces his first unranked opponent in years in a must-win scenario. A multi-time jiu-jitsu world champion, he has nine submission wins and five knockouts to his name.

At 39, he heads into his fourth UFC main event looking to prove he can still get the job done.

Malott (13-2-1), meanwhile, is on the rise. A blue-chipper long tipped for big things, this is his chance to break through and enter the top 15 in his first UFC main event.  

“Proper” has put together a three-fight win streak, using his well-rounded approach to topple Trevin Giles, Charles Radtke and Kevin Holland to earn this, the biggest fight of his career.

It’s taken a bit longer than expected, but at 34, Malott is putting it all together, smoothly blending technical striking with high-level grappling. Overall, he has six submissions and five knockouts to his credit.

Even though Malott is not on the same level as the fighters Burns is used to facing, he’s firing on all cylinders and has all the skill and athleticism to break into and stay in the top 15.

His rise, coupled with Burns’ fall, makes him an overwhelming favourite, and the bottom line is Malott should wear down and finish the veteran to send the fans home happy.

Prediction: Malott by TKO.

Best Bet: Malott by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.80.

Kyler Phillips (2.25) v Charles Jourdain (1.61) (Bantamweight)

The co-main event is a bantamweight bout with Fight of the Night written all over it. As aggressive as they are skilled, this pair of 135-pounders promises to put on a show. 

For Phillips (12-4), this is a crucial clash to stop his slide. Back-to-back losses to Rob Font and Vinicius Oliveira resulted in him dropping out of the top 15, so “The Matrix” is ultra-determined to get things moving in the right direction again.

Jourdain (17-8-1) returns home reinvigorated and red hot. A long-time featherweight, all-action “Air” dropped down to 135 pounds at the end of 2024 and is 2-0 in his new weight class.

As lethal on the feet as he is on the ground, he became the first man to tap out Victor Henry and doubled down by forcing Davey Grant to quit last time out. 

Phillips has high-profile wins over the likes of Song Yadong and Pedro Munhoz and will have a three-inch reach advantage.

Jourdain, though, is looking like a man reborn and with his well-balanced game and home advantage to boot, the local favourite should get it done.

Prediction: Jourdain by decision.

Best Bet: Jourdain at 1.61.

Alternative Bet: Jourdain by decision at 3.75.

Mandel Nallo (1.55) v Jai Herbert (2.40) (Lightweight)

All eyes will be on Canadian Nallo (14-3) as he finally makes his UFC debut in the featured bout.

A great example of never giving up on your dream, he’ll get his big break at the age of 36. Dana White always says the Contender Series is about discovering young talent, but the UFC CEO happily made an exception after Nallo knocked out former Cage Warriors champion Samuel Silva on the show in September.

The win over Silva was his fifth consecutive first-round stoppage victory since wrapping up his stint in Bellator and will see him face a second former Cage Warriors champion in a row.

Herbert (13-6-1) has struggled to make the step up to the UFC, managing just three wins in nine Octagon outings, and dropped a split decision to Chris Padilla last time out.

As his nickname suggests, “The Black Country Banger” is primarily a striker and has clinched nine of his wins by KO.

Momentum is clearly on Nallo’s side. Highly dangerous, the man known as “Mango” in some circles and “Rat Garbage” in others boasts a 100% finishing rate (eight knockouts and six submissions) and looks set to keep that streak intact.

Prediction: Nallo by knockout. 

Best Bet: Nallo by KO/TKO/DQ at 3.00.

Alternative Bet: Nallo at 1.55.

Jasmine Jasudavicius (1.33) v Karine Silva (3.25) (Flyweight)

The crowd will be cheering for Jasudavicius (14-4) in this clash of top-10 flyweights.

The local girl is ranked seventh and looked to be making a serious run at the title until she hit a roadblock in October.

The veteran took a five-fight win streak, capped by a submission victory over former champion Jessica Andrade, into her fight with Manon Fiorot, but fell to the top contender.

In Silva (19-6), she has a dangerous opponent who’s also determined to put a loss in her last fight behind her. The ninth-ranked Brazilian was beaten by Maycee Barber in December and has lost two of her last three bouts.

“Killer” is an apt nickname for her as she’s one of the most prolific finishers in the flyweight division with no less than 17 stoppages to her name (nine knockouts and eight submissions).

One thing about Jasudavicius, other than being the more tactically astute fighter, is that she’s never lost two in a row, and she’s not going to start now.

Prediction: Jasudavicius by decision.

Best Bet: Jasudavicius by decision at 1.66.

Thiago Moises (2.05) v Gauge Young (1.75) (Lightweight)

This lightweight bout boils down to the experience of Moises (19-9) and the exuberance of Young (10-3).

Moises made his UFC debut back in 2018 and is 8-7 inside the Octagon. He headlined a card against none other than Islam Makhachev in 2021 and made it further than most before being submitted in the fourth round by the now pound-for-pound king and welterweight champion in 2021.

Win or lose, he always brings the fight but has long been hampered by inconsistency. He’s no slouch on the feet but as a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, he’ll be aiming to get things to the ground where he’ll have the advantage.

Young has only stepped inside the Octagon twice and is 1-1. After a short-notice loss to Evan Elder in his debut last April, he registered his first UFC win against Maheshate four months later and is eager to start building momentum.

Mainly a striker, the 25-year-old “Gee Money” is talented. However, Moises is a wily veteran who took the necessary time off after his last loss and whose savviness and grappling make him a value underdog.

Prediction: Moises by decision.

Best Bet: Moises at 2.05.

Dennis Buzukja (4.75) v Marcio Barbosa (1.18) (Featherweight)

The main card opener pits a fighter returning from a long layoff against one making his UFC debut.

The last time we saw Buzukja (12-5), he lost a split decision to Francis Marshall in August 2024. Unfortunately for him, “The Great” hasn’t lived up to his nickname at the highest level and is up against it as he aims to make it 2-2 in the UFC.

Barbosa (17-2) is a firecracker with a ton of potential. He’s the ideal fighter to kick off the main card as he’s only gone to the scorecards once in his 19-fight career.

Fast and ferocious with serious power for a 145-pounder, “Ticoto” doesn’t play games, nor does he waste time, as all but one of his wins have come in the first round.  

Don’t blink as the red-hot Barbosa is primed to melt the ice-cold Buzukja.

Prediction: Barbosa by knockout.

Best Bet: Barbosa by KO/TKO/DQ (check markets).

Alternative Bet: Barbosa in round one (check markets).