UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen v Figueiredo Predictions

The co-headliner at the Wells Fargo Arena will see the undefeated Bo Nickal battle Reinier de Ridder, while welterweights Santiago Ponzinibbio and Daniel Rodriguez duke it out in the featured out.

The main card also includes two bantamweight bouts with Montel Jackson facing Daniel Marcos and Cameron Smotherman squaring off against Serhiy Sidey, plus, veteran Jeremy Stephens makes his UFC return against Mason Jones at lightweight.

MAIN CARD

Cory Sandhagen (1.18) v Deiveson Figueiredo (4.50) (Bantamweight)

When: Sunday, April 27, 3:00 AM SAST

Members of the bantamweight elite aim to get back on track in this weekend’s historic headliner after they were both cooled down in their previous fights.

Fourth-ranked Sandhagen (17-5) has long pursued a shot at the 135-pound title and edged closer to his goal with consecutive wins over Song Yadong, Marlon Vera and Rob Font in headlining bouts. However, he ran into then-undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov last August and bent the knee by decision.

Looking to conquer a second division, former flyweight champion Figueiredo (24-4-1) moved up to bantamweight in 2023 and looked the business with wins over Rob Font, Cody Garbrandt and Vera. Like Sandhagen, though, his three-fight win streak came to an end in his last bout against former 135-pound titleholder Petr Yan.

A former interim title challenger, Sandhagen is a flashy striker who produced highlight-reel knockouts against the likes of Marlon Moraes and former lightweight king Frankie Edgar. “The Sandman” has seven knockouts and three submissions to his name but hasn’t had a finish since his doctor stoppage win over Song in 2022.

Figueiredo was one of the hardest hitters at flyweight, a division he ruled four years ago and remained a pillar in until his move up to 135 pounds, and has relied more heavily on his wrestling and grappling since moving up to bantamweight.

Equally lethal on the feet and the ground (nine knockouts and nine submissions) and boasting a wealth of experience, “Deus Da Guerra” is a complete combat athlete. Sandhagen has added a solid layer of grappling to his game, but he won’t want to engage Figueiredo on that front. Instead, he’ll look to rely on his speed and perpetual motion to chip away on the outside with his two-inch reach advantage.

Figueiredo remains a force to be reckoned with, but at 37, he’s lost a few steps. Sandhagen’s struggles have come against elite grapplers like Nurmagomedov and while Figueiredo has excellent jiu-jitsu, he doesn’t have the wrestling and endless cardio that powered Nurmagomedov to victory.

As a result, switch-hitting Sandhagen will use his physical advantages and sophisticated striking to lead the dance and get the job done.

Prediction: Sandhagen by decision.
Best Bet: Sandhagen by decision at 1.66.

Reinier de Ridder (3.50) v Bo Nickal (1.28) (Middleweight)

Undefeated wrestling phenom Nickal faces the toughest test of his career in the co-main event.

A three-time Division I national champion and four-time All-American, Nickal has an unprecedented wrestling pedigree that has seen him blow through most of his opponents without getting a scratch on him.

He’s 7-0 with six finishes (two knockouts and four submissions) and went to a decision for the first time in his last bout against Paul Craig last November. Though not the most exciting win, the fight against the Scottish submission specialist was the perfect preparation for the similarly skilled De Ridder (19-2).

A former ONE Championship middleweight and light heavyweight champion, De Ridder is the most decorated opponent Nickal has ever faced. “The Dutch Knight” is 2-0 in the UFC with submission wins over Gerald Meerschaert and Kevin Holland, which took his tapout victories tally to 13.

As he did against Craig, Nickal might opt not to take De Ridder down due to how dangerous he is on the ground. De Ridder will thus be best served to push the action and try to force grappling exchanges. It’s tempting to go with the underdog, but I see Nickal picking up another decision win.

Prediction: Nickal by decision.
Best Bet: Nickal by decision at 3.00.

Santiago Ponzinibbio (1.80) v Daniel Rodriguez (1.95) (Welterweight)

Welterweight veterans will trade leather in the featured bout. This promises to be a high-level striking duel between two dangerous and durable stalwarts, so it should be a fun fight.

Vastly experienced Ponzinibbio (30-8) snapped a two-fight losing streak and picked up just his third win in the last four years with a third-round TKO victory over Carlston Harris in January. A skilled kickboxer, “The Argentine Dagger” has 17 knockouts in all but at 38, he’s not as fast and ferocious as he was in his prime.

Rodriguez (18-5) edged out Alex Morono by split decision last time out to halt a three-fight losing streak. Those three losses, it must be said, came against top competition in Neil Magny, Ian Machado Garry and Kelvin Gastelum. “D-Rod” throws at a much higher pace, landing 7.5 significant strikes compared to Ponzinibbio’s 4.8 and should triumph as a result.

Prediction: Rodriguez by decision.
Best Bet: Rodriguez at 1.95.
Alternative Bet: Rodriguez by decision at 3.00.

Montel Jackson (1.45) v Daniel Marcos (2.62) (Bantamweight)

Surging bantamweights will bring the heat in this one.

Jackson (14-2) lived up to his “Quick” nickname by knocking out Da’Mon Blackshear in just 18 seconds last July to secure his second straight KO victory and extend his winning streak to five.

Tall for the 135-pound division at 5’10” with a massive 75.5-inch reach, he’s well-rounded with a wrestling base and serious power, with South African JP Buys being among his eight knockout victims.

He faces the unbeaten Marcos (17-0-1NC). Fighting out of Peru, “Soncora” has gone 4-0 with one no-contest through his first five UFC appearances, most recently pipping Adrian Yanez by split decision last December.

A Muay Thai fighter with sharp striking, he can knock opponents out (eight wins by KO) but is also comfortable going the full 15 minutes. He has good patience on the feet and distance management, both of which will be crucial in this contest.

This is a big step up for Marcos against No. 15-ranked Jackson. The American has more tools and a massive six-and-a-half-inch reach advantage, which should take him and his backers to the pay window.

Prediction: Jackson by decision.
Best Bet: Jackson by decision at 2.30.
Alternative Bet: Jackson at 1.45.

Cameron Smotherman (2.05) v Serhiy Sidey (1.72) (Bantamweight)

The other bantamweight bout on the main card is between two men in the early stages of their UFC careers.

Both claimed their first win inside the Octagon last time out, Smotherman (12-4) out-hustling Jake Hadley on short notice and Sidey (11-2) edging out Garrett Armfield on the scorecards.

Heavy-handed Smotherman is aggressive by nature, which has earned him the nickname “The Baby-Faced Killer”, but he showed sound fight IQ in his promotional debut, so he’s not a hot-headed hunter.

Though well-rounded, Sidey’s striking is his biggest strength, particularly his long jab and stabbing kicks. At 5’10”, he has a two-inch height and three-inch reach advantage, while he’s also more technically savvy, so he should prevail.

Prediction: Sidey by decision.
Best Bet: Sidey at 1.72.
Alternative Bet: Sidey by decision.

Jeremy Stephens (4.75) v Mason Jones (1.16) (Lightweight)

Both of the main card openers are making their return to the UFC.

Competing in mixed martial arts for the first time in more than two years and fighting in the UFC for the first time in almost four years, Stephens (29-21) looks to collect his first victory inside the Octagon since knocking out Josh Emmett in 2018.

A big-hitting brawler with 19 knockouts to his name, “Lil’ Heathen” has in the last two years fought in Bare Knuckle Fighting Championship, where he scored wins over Jimmie Rivera, Bobby Taylor and, most recently, former UFC champion Eddie Alvarez in January.

Jones (15-2) went 1-2 with a no-contest in his first four UFC appearances before returning to Cage Warriors and posting four wins in as many outings to earn a call back to the big show. “The Dragon” is a pressure fighter who fights at a high volume and is super durable.

The Welshman is now near his prime whereas Stephens is past his. The American is also on the small side for a lightweight, having fought at featherweight for most of his career. Thus, Jones should be the one celebrating a successful comeback.

Prediction: Jones by knockout.
Best Bet: Jones by KO/TKO/DQ at 3.00.
Alternative Bet: Jones by decision at 2.30.