UFC Fight Night: Burns v Morales Predictions

Lethal light heavyweights Paul Craig and Rodolfo Bellato will battle it out in the co-headliner, with Nigeria’s Sodiq Yusuff set to square off against Mairon Santos in a lightweight bout in the middle of the main card.

Plus, Dustin Stoltzfus and Nursulton Ruziboev meet at middleweight, and Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa collide at featherweight.

MAIN CARD:

When: Sunday, May 18, 1 AM SAST

Gilbert Burns (6.00) v Michael Morales (1.11) (Welterweight)

A staple in the welterweight elite, eighth-ranked Burns (22-8) is determined to get back on track in his fourth main event. The Brazilian veteran is amid a career-worst three-fight losing streak.

He was outworked by Belal Muhammad, who went on to become champion, was minutes away from a decision win over new champion Jack Della Maddalena before the Australian rallied to score a third-round knockout and lost on points to Sean Brady last September.

“Durinho”, who fought then-king Kamaru Usman for the title in 2021, has battled and beaten some of the best at 170 pounds, including Jorge Masvidal, Stephen Thompson and former champion Tyron Woodley. At 38, he’s nearing the end of his career and heads into this weekend’s headliner looking to prove he still has fight left in him.

He can do it all at the highest level. He has power and heart, as he showed in his classic three-round war with Khamzat Chimaev in 2022, and he’s a grappling wizard. A multi-time jiu-jitsu world champion, he has nine submission wins and five knockouts to his name.

Meanwhile, 12th-ranked Morales is yet to taste defeat as a professional. A perfect 17-0 with 12 knockouts and one submission, he’s rattled off five straight wins since he joined the UFC in 2022 to earn this opportunity to crack into the top 10. His lone outing last year saw knockout gatekeeper Neil Magny in the opening round.

The Ecuador-born fighter is a heavy-handed striker who throws at a high volume (he lands 5.42 significant strikes per minute compared to Burns’ 3.17). At 25 and 6’0″, he’s 13 years younger and three inches taller than Burns, and he’ll have a massive seven-inch reach advantage.

Morales is rightfully the favourite, but the line is too wide in my view. It suits me just fine, though, as I’m backing Burns. He has the skill on the feet and the ground to cause Morales problems, he’s super durable, and conditioning has never been an issue for him, so I like him as a heavy underdog.

Prediction: Burns by decision.
Best Bet: Burns at 6.00.
Alternative Bet: Burns by decision at 12.00.

Paul Craig (4.75) v Rodolfo Bellato (1.16) (Light Heavyweight)

The co-headliner is a classic grappler versus striker matchup.

One of the most intense fighters on the roster, Craig (17-9-1) is a submission magician with 13 tapout wins. After losing his last three fights at middleweight, “Bearjew” returns to light heavyweight, where he was once in the top 10 and holds a submission win over current champion Magomed Ankalaev.

Bellato (12-2-1) is a skilled, hard-hitting striker who’s finished all but one of his wins (seven knockouts and four submissions). His only two losses came to fellow Brazilian Vitor Petrino. Last time out, “Trator” battled Jimmy Crute to a majority draw in February that extended his overall unbeaten streak to five.

Bellato is the far superior striker and athlete. He’s eight years younger than Craig, will have a one-and-a-half-inch reach advantage and has never been submitted, so he should stand tall.

Prediction: Bellato by knockout.
Best Bet: Bellato by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.60.
Alternative Bet: Under 1.5 rounds at 1.72.

Sodiq Yusuff (2.05) v Mairon Santos (1.75) (Lightweight)

One of African mixed martial arts’ top prospects, Yusuff (13-4) makes his UFC lightweight debut after going 6-3 at featherweight. The Nigerian ace is on a two-fight losing streak, dropping a decision to veteran Edson Barboza in his first main event and being stopped by recent title challenger Diego Lopes last time out.

Santos (15-1) marched to glory on Season 32 of The Ultimate Fighter, an impressive run that culminated in a second-round knockout win over Kaan Ofli in the featherweight tournament final. Last time out, “The Legend” eked out a split decision win over Francis Marshall.

This should be an entertaining striking battle. “Super Sodiq” is the busier man on the feet and two inches taller, however, Santos is more sophisticated and will have a one-inch reach advantage. Faster and seven years younger than Yusuff, Santos should continue his winning ways.

Prediction: Santos by decision.
Best Bet: Santos at 1.75.
Alternative Bet: Santos by decision at 2.50.

Dustin Stoltzfus (3.30) v Nursulton Ruziboev (1.30) (Middleweight)

Cue the carnage in this clash of middleweight finishers.

Stoltzfus (16-6) is a kill-or-be-killed scrapper. Six of his eight UFC appearances have ended inside the distance, and with an ultra-dangerous dance partner, this one, too, should have a violent finish.

Inconsistency has held Stoltzfus back as he’s alternated wins and losses over his five outings. Coming off a first-round knockout win over Marc-Andre Barriault last November, the American aims to put together successive victories for the first time in over five years.

A pure predator, the highly experienced Ruziboev (35-9-2) has no less than 33 finishes (13 knockouts and 20 submissions). Huge for a 185-pounder at 6’5″, the Uzbekistan star has won all three of his middleweight fights in the UFC by knockout and is coming off a second-round stoppage win over Eric McConico in February.

Ruziboev’s ruthlessness, experience, versatility, size and sounder defence make him a sizeable favourite and should see him stop Stoltzfus in his tracks.

Prediction: Ruziboev by knockout.
Best Bet: Ruziboev by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.80.
Alternative Bet: Under 1.5 rounds at 1.76.

Julian Erosa (2.40) v Melquizael Costa (1.53) (Featherweight)

Kicking off the main card are two active, entertaining and streaking featherweights.

Never in a dull duel, Erosa (31-11) has been making the most of his third stint in the UFC. The 35-year-old is 8-3 in his latest run and on a three-fight win streak, having followed up successive first-round submission wins over Ricardo Ramos and Christian Rodriguez with a first-round knockout of Darren Elkins just over a month ago.

Not to be outdone, Costa (23-7) has won three straight as well, building off last year’s submission win over Shayilan Nuerdanbieke with victories over Andre Fili (submission) and Rodriguez (submission) already this year.

Equally skilled on the feet and the ground, the 28-year-old looks better every time he steps inside the Octagon and should be too sharp for “Juicy J.”

Prediction: Costa by decision.
Best Bet: Costa by decision at 3.00.
Alternative Bet: Costa at 1.53.