PSL Transfer Focus: Sundowns

Mamelodi Sundowns returned to the top of the PSL table following a 2-0 win over Orbit College on Monday night. The Brazilians started the year in second, a position they are not used to. For a team that has won eight consecutive titles, most of them at a canter, it is a bit unusual seeing them play chase. Pirates have been the form team in the last few months of this season, winning the MTN8 and Carling Knockout Cups and for some, are favourites for the title. Yet, Sundowns are not just watching all this unfold. They have taken action in the mid-season transfer market, and brought in some needed reinforcements. The arrivals of Monnapule Saleng, Brayan León, Khulumani Ndamane, and the return of Kobamelo Kodisang are aimed at restoring the dominance that has defined the club for the last decade.

What is actually going wrong so far?

On the surface, Sundowns remain the league’s most potent attack. They have scored more goals than any other team (22), and have the best goal-difference in the division (+15). However, the detailed data suggests a team that is not as solid as it seems. The points trendline below shows how Sundowns have fallen below the championship path (green) in the second quarter of the season. Both actual points and expected points are heading towards second-place for them. Serious improvements are needed if they are to retain their title.

Despite scoring the most goals (20), Sundowns rank only 5th in the league for shots taken (175 total and just under 13 per game). While their 21.5xG total is parallel to their 22 goals and shows they are creating high-quality chances, they are no longer dominating the opposition like before. Last season, and the season before when they were almost invincible, they were outstanding both in shot volumes and conversion. Now, conversion is still good, but they are not threatening as often.

Defensively, the team has conceded only seven goals, but their xGA (Expected Goals Against) stands at 10.5. This is where Downs are riding their luck, with opposition teams not being clinical when they go through at Sundowns’ goal. Sundowns are stil producing good numbers, but just not as dominant.

Threee New Faces

1. Monnapule Saleng (from Orlando Pirates)
In the most shocking move of the window, Sundowns snatched Saleng following his loan spell at Orbit College. Saleng is a high-volume shooter, and that may be what Sundowns need at the moment. His trigger-happy shooting style is a direct answer to a glaring problem. However, his injury means he will miss a few more matches before making his debut, and may only be available for the run-in.

2. Brayan León (from Independiente Medellín)
The Colombian player arrives with a high-price tag. Judging from his first game on Monday, Leon is a dynamic striker with good poaching instincts and the ability to find spaces in the box. Since the departure of Lucas Ribeiro, Sundowns’ atack has looked one-dimensional. Downs will be hoping he brings in the chaos-factor that allows other teammates to have more space.

3. Khulumani Ndamane (from TS Galaxy)

The signing of the Bafana Bafana defender is a direct response to fixing the xGA problem. Ndamane provides the recovery pace needed to stop counterattacks that have led to high-quality chances for opponents this season. As a Bafana-level player, he also brings immediate quality for Sundowns’ continental exploits.

Sundowns are just two favourable results away from levelling up with Orlando Pirates on the table, and they need to add pressure on Pirates – reinforcing their squad does just that.