Carling Knockout: Quarter-Final Preview

The quarter-final stage of the Carling Knockout Cup takes place in the coming days, with four games lined up between Saturday and Wednesday next week. A KZN derby kicks off the action on Saturday afternoon, with Richards Bay facing Durban City. Then on Sunday, KZN comes to life again when Golden Arrows host TS Galaxy at the Sugar Ray Xulu Stadium. Pirates-v-Magesi and Marumo-v-Stellenbosch wrap up the action during the week. Let’s preview the weekend games.

Quarter-Final history

Tight and tense affairs have been typical of recent Carling Cup quarter-finals, with many low scoring contests at this stage. The inaugural CKO 2023 saw just 5 goals scored in the four quarter-finals, with two of these ending 0-0 and going to penalties. Last season’s edition also had just six goals, most of which were scored by Sundowns in a 4-0 win. The other games ended 1-0, 1-0 and 0-0 (with penalties). Should that trend continue, history tells us that one or two of the weekend games could go the distance.

1.4 – goals per game in the Carling Cup quarter-finals since its 2023 return, compared to 2.8 goals per game on average in quarter-finals between 2001 and 2019.

Richards Bay v Durban City

The first host this weekend will be Durban City, whose pragmatism has contributed more than most teams to this low scoring phenomenon. In the 2023 quarter-finals, Richards Bay drew 0-0 with Orlando Pirates in the quarters, and progressed on penalties. A year later, on the same weekend, they also drew 0-0 with Cape Town City, similarly progressing on penalties. Yet, one may argue that this is a different Richards Bay side, who pumped 4 past Chippa United in the previous stage.

Oddly, their opponents this weekend also won 4-1 in the last round. Do these results suggest this could be a different goal-laden stage? The head-to-head on this fixture is quite thin, as City have just been promoted to the top-flight. But 10 goals in 10 league games for City at an average of 1 per game suggests a team happy to roll the dice with a single goal. Bay’s average (0,7 goals per game) is even lower.

1 – Richards Bay have not scored more than one goal in any league game this year, and are the only team with that record.

Predicted team to progress: Durban City

Golden Arrows v TS Galaxy

The other weekend quarter-final sees 2023 losing finalists TS Galaxy travel to Golden Arrows. The Rockets will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2-1 defeat to Magesi in their last game.

Arrows, meanwhile, were involved in a seven-goal thriller during the week, albeit in a 3-4 defeat. What’s more, they have scored three goals in three straight games in all competitions. Before the aforementioned 4-3 defeat to Stellenbosch, Arrows beat Sekhukhune 3-1 in the Last 16 stage of this competition and dispatched Orbit Cillege 3-0 in the league late last month. Can they continue their merry scoring spree, or will coach Manqoba look to be more conservative?

Like TS Galaxy, Mngqithi himself experienced the lows of losing in the final in 2024 with Sundowns. And that heartbreak, which acceleraed the process of his departure from the Brazilians may be a driving factor here. Yet, it is their home form which could matter more than perceived grievances from the past.

⅚ – Arrows have won five of their six home games this season. That’s already more home wins than they managed throughout last season (4 in 15).

Predicted team to progress: Golden Arrows