Betting Notebook: PSL Matchday 11

Indeed, 24 September was the last time we saw eight full games played over 2-3 days. We’ve selected three games to focus on in our weekend preview, including the biggest game of the weekend or season – Orlando Pirates v Sundowns, then Kaizer Chiefs v Durban City & TS Galaxy v Stellenbosch. Our Betting Notebook helps you make sense of the upcoming action.

Durban City (5th) v Kaizer Chiefs (4th)

4th meets 5th on Friday night, with Gavin Hunt looking to kiil two birds with one stone. The experienced gaffer can overtake Chiefs on the table and also get one back against his former club with a win on the weekend. Whisper it, but how he’d love that. Yet, both teams are out of form in this competition at the moment – Chiefs are winless in four league games, and City have managed just one win in the same span. Chiefs games have been tight affairs this season – they’ve kept the most clean sheets in the league on the one hand, but they are yet to score more than one open play goal ina game on the other. The odds favour Chiefs slightly here (41% win probability for them) compared to 34% for their hosts. It’s an interesting take, given how Durban City have been cruising at home this season.

2.5 – Durban City averaged 2.5 points per game at home this season. Only Sundowns & AmaZulu (both 100%) have better home records.

You can bet on a draw/Chiefs win

You can bet on Under 2.5

Sundowns (1st) v Orlando Pirates (3d)

For many years, this game, in this competition at least, was merely a formality for Sundowns. Between 2020 and 2025, the 10 league meetings between the sides produced eight wins for the Brazilians, and two draws, with Downs outscoring Pirates 19-3. A few moons later, the same fixture is  invariably now a title decider. Thanks to morale-boosting Cup wins (and the MTN8 semi-final knockout this year) Pirates have narrowed the gap in the last few years, and even the gap in the league has started to close – Pirates even won the last fixture between the sides. The odds favour Sundowns for this one, largely due to their home form where they are aiming to become the first ever team to win 20 home league games in a row.

500 – It’s been over 500 days since Sundowns were beaten in a league game at home, last losing to Cape Town City at the end of the 2023/24 season (Matchday 30).\

You can bet on a draw or Sundowns win

You can bet on Over 2.5 goals

TS Galaxy (8th) v Stellenbosch (13th)

Two steps forward and one step back has been the dance for Stellenbosch in recent weeks. After scoring 4+ goals in successive league games to breathe life back into their league season and progress into the next round of the CAF Confederations Cup, they suffered a reverse 4-0 defeat themselves to bow out of the Carling Cup. They travel to a TS Galaxy team who have also stuttered lately – claiming one regulation time win in their last six games (P6 W1 D3 L2 in 90 minutes). Bookmakers are finding it hard to split the two teams, with Stellies (40% implied win probability) slightly edging the home team (37%). The thing is – Stellies have never lost a game against TS Galaxy, winning 10 & drawing five of the 15 previous meetings since 2018. But their away form has been a shambles, and there is a first for everything.

10 – This is Stellies’ 10th away game since mid-May & they haven’t won any of the previous nine (D5 L4).

You can bet on draw or TS Galaxy win

You can bet on both teams to score