Betting Notebook: Pirates look to bounce back from CAF exit

Quarter-Final 3: Orlando Pirates v Magesi

Orlando Pirates suffered the ignominy of being the only PSL team to bow out of CAF competitions when they were knocked out of the Champions League by St Eloi Lupopo on Saturday afternoon. The Bucaneers have built themselves a reputation as Cup specialists in recent years, winning six of the nine domestic trophies competed since the start of the 2022/23 season. There will be no time to lick their continental wounds, as focus swiftly changes to the Carling Knockout. Given how Kaizer Chiefs (Nedbank Cup champions) and Sundowns (league champions) have been knockoed out, Pirates are now considered favourites by many for this title. Yet, it is a tournament they have often struggled in.

1 – Despite playing the most matches (81) in the League Cup (PSL-era Coke/Rothmans/TKO/Carling Cups), Orlando Pirates have won the competition only once (2011 Telkom Knockout).

As such, Pirates have an oportunity to right a couple of wrongs this week. Not only would they elevate their fandom out of the post-CAF slumber, but they can also edge closer to a League Cup that has proved elusive for most of the PSL era. The latter consideration is accentuated by the number of times they have come close – no team has been to more semi-finals than them (14). Standing in their way of a 15th semi will be Magesi, the defending champions. If you recall, Magesi eliminated Pirates 3-2 from this competition on their way to winning it last season. But can they do it again?

1 – Only one team in PSL history has ever successfully defended the League Cup (Kaizer Chiefs – three times).

Add to that, the bookmakers’ odds are in Pirates favour. Results wise, the previous games between the two sides have been tight – one win apiece (including the aforementioned Carling Cup win for Magesi) and a 1-1 draw. But in-game, Pirates have dominated the league encounters, outshooting their opponents 31-8 across both league games last season. Magesi’s win over AmaZulu in the Last 16 was their first away win since February (10 winless away games in between). So the cause for concern implied by the odds could be justified. Moreover, Pirates have been exemplary at home.

7 – Pirates have won each of their last seven home games, keeping a clean sheet in each.

Our team to progress: Orlando Pirates

Value bet: Pirates to score Over 1.5 goals

Quarter-Final 4: Marumo Gallants v Stellenbosch

The other quarter-final sees Stellenbosch travel to Marumo Gallants in search of a semi-final berth. The 2023 winners of the competition have clicked into form in time for another deep run in, after a tentative start to the season. The first 15 games in all competitions for Stellies saw them score just nine goals, while the last two have seen eight – four in successive games. The odds are split here, with Stellies made the slight favourites – but only just. Stellies’ implied 39% implied win probability is above Marumo’s 36%. This is a repeat of last season’s clash at the same stage of the same competition, a game Marumo edged 1-0. While Stellenbosch are in form, Marumo’s home record this season (featuring wins over Pirates and a draw with Sundowns) has been quiote solid, and a 10-day rest window for them suggests this will be a tightly contested affair. Or will the rustiness bug bite?

0 – Stellenbosch are yet to win a game away from home this season (P6 W0 D4 L2)

Our team to progess: Marumo Gallants

Value bet: Under 2.5 goals in the game