AFCON 2025 Preview: Group D

The 35th edition of the Africa Cup of Nations (popularly known as AFCON) kicks off this coming

weekend. The tournament will be hosted by Morocco, starting on 21 December 2025 and

crossing over to January 2026. Morocco, Egypt, Senegal, and Algeria are the heavy favourites to win the tournament. Group D features one of the favourites in Senegal, who will battle DRC, Benin and Botswana in a quest to set the early pace for the rest of the challengers. Continuing our preview of the tournament, today we focus on Group D and the statistical predictions and projections for this group.

Who will win Group D

Senegal

The Lions of Teranga will be looking to bring home only their second AFCON title after their 2021 heroics and lift the title. The two-time runners-up are favourites to win Group D, where they will face DR Congo, Benin and Botswana. The West African nation has participated in 18 of 35 AFCON tournaments, with 12 appearances coming since the turn of the century. Since beating France at World Cup 2002, Senegal have been a powerhouse of African football, and go into every tournament with high expectations. They are projected to finish top of their group and have been assigned a 95.3% probability to make the last 16. They are the third-favourite team to win the tournament, with a 12.3% chance of winning the title.

Players to watch: Sadio Mane (Al-Nassr), Nicolas Jackson (Chelsea FC), Ismaila Sarr (Crystal Palace), Ilihan Ndiaye (Everton).

DR Congo

The central African nation nicknamed “The Leopards” are previous AFCON winner from 1968 and 1974. Since then, their best finish has been third (twice – 1998 & 2015) and a fourth-placed finish at the 2023 edition (versus South Africa). They have considerable experience participating in AFCON, making this their 21st appearance of 35 and are projected to finish 2nd in the group (behind Senegal). If they fail to qualify from the group stage, it will be the first time since 2013 that they have done so. Their recent World Cup playoff effort (beating Nigeria) will be a massive confidence booster, and at 74% chance of going through, they are the second favourites in the Group.

Players to watch: Aaron Wan-Bissaka (West Ham), Fiston Mayele (Pyramids FC), Noah Sadiki (Sunderland FC).

Benin

The Cheetahs will be making their fifth appearance at the 2025 AFCON finals, the last appearance coming at the 2019 edition, where they were eliminated at the quarter-final stage. Head Coach Gernot Rohr (Germany) and his technical team will know that a second-place group stage finish is possible and if not possible, that a third-place group spot is well within reach between them and Botswana. 56% of tournament simulations see them go to the Last 16, as they are expected to make light work of Botswana and possibly shock the other two with a win or draw.

Players to watch: Steven Mounie (Alanyaspor), Junior Olaitan (Goztepe), Hassane Imourane (Grasshoppers)

Botswana

The Zebras are only making their second appearance at an AFCON tournament, with the previous appearance coming 13 years ago (2012 edition). They finished bottom of their group and had the worst record of all participating teams then. They lost all three games to Ghana (0-1), Guinea (1-6) and Mali (1-2).  South Africa’s Morena Ramoreboli has chosen mostly locally based players as they look to secure a third-place finish and beat predictions of finishing bottom of Group D. they will aim to cause upsets where they can, and three points anywhere would be celebrated back home, as the Batswana are known to do.

Players to watch: Thatayaone Ditlhokwe (Al-Ittihad SC), Gape Mohutsiwa (MC Oran)