Porto v Nottingham Forest – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

The clubs met in the League Phase in October as Forest won 2-0 at home. FC Porto have lost just once at home all season, with 18 wins in 21 matches.

Porto Form

Porto are formidable at home this season and have five wins from five Europa League matches on their own turf. The Dragons sit top of their domestic league with a five-point gap over Sporting Lisbon. After a 1-0 loss at Sporting in the Taca de Portugal Cup, they drew 2-2 at Benfica in the league.

They won 2-1 at Stuttgart in Germany in the Europa League round-of-16 before a 3-0 home league win vs Moreirense. They beat Stuttgart 2-0 in the second leg to reach this stage. Since then, they’ve won 2-1 at Braga before a surprise 2-2 home draw vs Famalicao on Saturday as they managed just eight shots in the match.

Porto Team News

Coach Francesco Farioli is without two top strikers for this match. Samu Aghehowa and Luuk de Jong are both injured up front. Terem Moffi is set to play up front in their place.

Young winger Rodrigo Mora and centre back Nahuen Perez are both doubts to feature. Thiago Silva is tipped to return to the starting XI in defence. Seko Fofana will also be recalled after a partial rest in the last match.

Porto Motivation

Porto are very confident at home. They will take the game to Forest from the start and look to dominate.

A first-leg draw would feel like a defeat. The Dragons will go all out for the win, knowing that they already lost away to Forest earlier this season.

Nottingham Forest Form

Forest have been inconsistent of late. Their last match saw a resounding 3-0 win away at Tottenham in a relegation battle as they ended a seven-match winless streak in the league. After winning 3-1 at Fenerbahce in Turkey, they lost 1-0 in the last minute to Liverpool. Forest lost 2-1 at home to Fenerbahce in the second leg but progressed to the last-16.

A 2-1 loss at Brighton was followed by a fine comeback to draw 2-2 at Man City. They lost 1-0 at home to Midtjylland in the Europa League before only drawing 0-0 at home vs Fulham. A 2-1 win at Midtjylland and a victory on penalties followed, despite using a second-string XI. Before the FIFA break, they picked up that key win at Spurs.  

Nottingham Forest Team News

Key midfield Elliot Anderson is suspended for this match, a real blow to Forest. Nicolas Dominguez is set to take his place in midfield, with Ryan Yates another option.

Coach Vítor Pereira is without Willy Boly and Chris Wood due to injuries. Ola Aina and Omari Hutchinson should shake off knocks to play some part in this clash.

Nottingham Forest Motivation

Forest would dearly love to reach the semi-finals. However, survival in the English Premier League is their main priority.

They could rest several players in this match, ahead of hosting Aston Villa on Sunday. A first-leg draw or a loss by one goal would be seen as a decent result from this clash.

Key Stats

• Porto have lost just 1 of their 21 home matches this season (18 wins, 2 draws)
• Porto have won their 5 home Europa League matches this season (12-3 aggregate)
• Nottingham Forest have won 3 of their last 5 away matches
• Forest have lost 4 of their last 8 matches in all competitions

Verdict

FC Porto are very strong at home and can give more focus to this competition than Forest can. I see the hosts taking a first-leg lead.

Best Bet: Porto win at 2.24

Value Bet: Porto win and both teams to score at 5.00