Banyana face arch-rivals Nigeria, while host Morocco take on Ghana

The defending champions Banyana Banyana needed penalties to go past Senegal in the last round, setting up yet another heavyweight clash against the Super Falcons of Nigeria. Ghana also reached this stage via the longer route, where they will face hte hosts and last season’s beaten finalist Morocco. We review the semi-final action.

Semi-final 1

Key Stats

• This is the 12th meeting between Banyana and Nigeria at AFCON, making Nigeria our most common opponent (W3 D1 L7 before)
• Nigeria are yet to concede a goal at the tournament so far
• Nigeria have progressed to the final in nine of their 12 semi final apperances

Banyana Banyana will be aiming to reach a third consecutive WAFCON final tonight when they face Nigeria in the first semi-final. These two sides share a storied history in the competition, having met eleven times previously, including the finals in 2000 and 2018. Nigeria holds the edge in their head-to-head record at WAFCON, winning seven of those encounters compared to Banyana’s three. However, Banyana are unbeaten in the last three meetings, with many of the current players involved, which could give them confidence heading into this clash.

Still, they’ll need to be at their absolute best to upset the odds. Nigeria are widely seen as favourites, with a 57% implied probability of victory compared to Banyana’s 23%. Justin Madugu’s side have been dominant throughout the tournament, producing the highest expected goals (8.3) and conceding the lowest (just 0.9 xGA across four games). They’ve also taken the most shots and are expected to keep the pressure on. Quarter-final shootout hero Andile Dlamini is likely to have a busy night, and her performance could prove decisive.

Team to progress: Nigeria

Value bet: Under 2.5 goals in the game

Semi-final 2: Morocco v Ghana

Key stats

• Morocco are considered favourites to win 1.55/1
• Morocco have scored more goals than any other team at WAFCON (10)
• Ghana are into their seventh semi-final

Morocco, hosts of the current WAFCON, will be aiming to replicate their impressive 2022 run when they reached the final. Three years ago, they stunned Nigeria in the semi-finals, winning on penalties after a 1-1 draw. This time, they enter as clear favourites – not just as hosts, but as a team in form and full of talent. Leading the charge is Ghizlane Chebbak, Morocco’s most capped player and current top scorer in the tournament. She’s defending both her Golden Boot and Player of the Tournament titles from the previous edition. Add to that, Morocco have lost just once in their last 10 WAFCON matches, and the 65% implied probability of victory reflects that dominance.

Ghana (19% chance of winning), on the other hand, have had a mixed campaign. Their 4-1 win over Tanzania was a much-needed boost, but they’ve scored just once across their remaining 300 minutes of play. While Ghana’s experience (13 WAFCON appearances vs Morocco’s four) is unmatched, form favours the hosts. This year, Ghana have a 33% win rate (P12 W4), while Morocco have lost just once in 12 matches all year. That said, Morocco have only kept one clean sheet at this tournament, leaving the door open for Ghana to make their mark.

Team to win: Morocco

Value bet: Ghana to score at least one