URC Final: Leinster v Bulls Preview And Prediction

For the fourth consecutive year, new champions will be crowned, and for the first year since the inception of the cross-hemisphere tournament four years ago, the final will be played outside of South Africa.

Having finished the regular season first and second, Leinster and the Bulls made the most of their home-ground advantage in the playoffs. The Irish giants saw off the Scarlets 33-21 in the quarter-finals and ended the Glasgow Warriors’ reign with an emphatic 37-19 semi-final win last weekend, while the men from Pretoria beat Edinburgh 42-33 in the last eight and the Sharks 25-13 in the last four.

Now, both teams are determined to break their finals hoodoo. Leinster have earned the unwanted reputation of chokers in recent years, having crashed out of each of the previous three URC seasons at the semi-final stage. They also lost three consecutive Investec Champions Cup finals and were dumped out by the Northampton Saints in the semis this year.

The Bulls, meanwhile, are hoping that third time’s the charm after they ended up on the wrong side of the ledger in their two previous URC final appearances. The Herd lost 18-13 to the Stormers in the inaugural final in Cape Town in 2022 and succumbed 21-16 to the Warriors in last season’s decider in Pretoria. The big question is thus, who will hold their nerve in the Dublin cauldron to claim the title?

All the pressure is on star-studded Leinster. Lose this one, and you’d have to think heads will roll. The confident way in which they cleared the semi-final hurdle for the first time last weekend suggests they’re mentally steeled for the all-or-nothing finale, and they’re overwhelming favourites to triumph.

Indeed, Leo Cullen’s charges should break their trophy drought. They have an army of Irish internationals, with Springbok lock RG Snyman – the URC Players’ Player of the Season – and All Black centre Jordie Barrett thrown in for good measure, they’ve been the pacesetters all season and they’re playing at home.

The key word there is should. The URC’s short history has shown you can win the trophy on the road, with both Munster and Glasgow doing so. The Bulls have also proved they can do the unthinkable in Dublin, famously stunning Leinster 27-26 in the 2021-22 semi-final, while their overall record in the rivalry will give them further confidence, having won four of the six showdowns between the sides.

Jake White’s troops are one of just two teams who beat Leinster during the league phase, a last-gasp penalty goal by David Kriel earning them a 21-20 home win, but that was against a side sans their Irish stars. Similarly, Leinster also fielded a second-string side in their 35-22 loss away to the Scarlets.

This time, the Bulls will be up against the real deal, and they wouldn’t want it any other way. The men in light blue love being counted out. It’s when they do their best work, and while Leinster led the way for most of the season, it’s the Bulls who are technically the form team of the competition with their eight-match winning streak. 

Leinster are the kings of continuity, playing a fast-paced, multi-faceted brand of rugby that’s incredibly tough to stop once they get going. The Bulls will, therefore, have to stop them from establishing rhythm if they are to have a shot at overcoming the odds.

That, and improving their discipline after conceding three yellow cards last weekend. They’re up to 19 yellow cards for the season and can’t afford to be down a man against the Irish giants, who know how to punish teams.

Looking at the stats, Leinster have scored the most points (612) and tries (89) this season, while they’re second in offloads (237) and third in metres gained (7861). For comparison’s sake, the Bulls are second in points (609) and tries (80), eighth in offloads (183) and seventh in metres gained (7359).

The bigger difference between the teams is on defence, where Leinster have conceded 105 less points than the Bulls thanks to Jacques Nienaber’s expertise. The Bulls boast the better set pieces, though, and will want to make the most of their dominant scrum, in particular.

Prediction: Again, Leinster should win. However, enough doubt about their mental makeup remains to make the Bulls live underdogs. Thus, I’m backing Ruan Nortje and company to pip it by a single point.

Suggested Bet: Bulls at 5.00.

Alternative Bet: Bulls +12 at 1.90.