EPCR Challenge Cup Predictions – Round 4

Both South African teams are in France, with the Lions set to take on Perpignan at Stade Aime Giral on Saturday and the Cheetahs set to face Racing 92 at Paris La Defense Arena.

Dragons v Newcastle Red Bulls

Friday, 16 January – 22:00

The Newcastle Red Bulls booked safe passage into the playoffs and made it three wins from three after a 26-19 victory over Perpignan last weekend.

The Dragons, meanwhile, who are fifth, scored their first win of 2025 when they came back to beat Lyon 23-21 in Round Two. However, with knockout qualification unlikely and a quick turnaround for this game, they sent their dirt-trackers to Treviso last weekend and took a 74-21 thumping.

With their frontline players back, the Dragons will be competitive, but the Red Bulls should leave with another win.

Prediction: Newcastle Red Bulls by 9.

Ulster v Stade Francais

Saturday, 17 January – 15:00

We have a belter in Belfast, where top honours in Pool 3 are on the line.

Stade Francais have been flawless, banking the full 15 log points in their wins over Cardiff (38-17), the Cheetahs (45-22) and the Exeter Chiefs (27-25) last weekend.

Ulster are three points behind them in second place with a 2-1 record, although, they received a 28-0, five-point walkover after their scheduled clash against the Cheetahs last weekend was cancelled.

History in this brief rivalry shows that the home team triumphs, so Ulster is the pick.

Prediction: Ulster by 2.

Black Lion v Zebre

Saturday, 17 January – 15:00

Due to snow forecast and concerns about the playability of the surface at the Mikheil Meskhi Stadium in Tbilisi, Black Lion have proactively requested and been granted permission to move this match to their usual venue, the Avchala Stadium in the same city, where they are better able to protect and prepare the surface in the event of bad weather.

The Georgian’s edged Montauban 31-28 last weekend to end a five-match losing streak in all competitions and give themselves a slim chance of reaching the playoffs. However, they must win this game and hope winless Montauban stun Connacht.

Zebre withstood a late surge from the Ospreys to secure a 23-19 win last weekend, and with a victory here set to move them up from third to a second-place finish in Pool 1, the Italians will be switched on and will seal the deal. 

Prediction: Zebre by 8.

Perpignan v Lions

Saturday, 17 January – 19:30

The Lions are in Pool 2, where Benetton (14) and the Newcastle Red Bulls (13) are already through to the playoffs after three wins each, but the remaining four teams still have a shot at the knockouts.

After defeats to Benetton (26-18) and the Red Bulls (14-10), the Pride picked up their first win of the campaign last weekend, trumping Lyon 42-33 to finish the round in fourth place on six points.

Perpignan, in contrast, started with a win over the Dragons (41-13) before going down to the pool pacesetters in Treviso (44-31) and Newcastle (26-19). They’re third, also on six points, but with a better points’ difference than the Lions.

The Dragons (4) and Lyon (3) are expected to lose this weekend, so Ivan van Rooyen’s men should advance even if they don’t get the result. However, they have momentum on their side and will want to ride that wave to a third straight win in all competitions.

A second-string Lions side beat Perpignan 28-12 on French soil in the only previous game between the teams in 2023, so coach “Cash” could be tempted to go that route again. Perpignan have won their last three matches in their backyard across competitions, though, including pipping Toulouse 30-27 in their most recent home game.

As a result, the French side should have the edge.

Prediction: Perpignan by 7.

Connacht v Montauban

Saturday, 17 January – 22:00

It’s been a tumultuous last two months for Connacht as they’ve lost four games on the trot.

They did show a lot of fire away to Montpellier last weekend, though, pushing the Pool 1 leaders close in a 33-31 defeat, and are set to turn the corner in this one.

Winless in their first European campaign in 15 years, Montauban will be no match for their Irish hosts, who will cruise to victory to cement their place in the last 16.

Prediction: Connacht by 22.

Ospreys v Montpellier

Saturday, 17 January – 22:00

In what is another pool decider, the Ospreys (11) will hope home ground advantage will help them leapfrog Montpellier (15) to finish the regular season at the top of Pool 1.

The Welsh team could’ve been unbeaten like Montpellier had they gone with a full-strength team in last weekend’s game against Zebre, given the side they selected lost by just four points.

With a full house of 15 log points, Montpellier are on a serious roll, and with the Ospreys being inconsistent at home, the French team should sneak over the line.

Prediction: Montpellier by 2.

Exeter Chiefs v Cardiff

Sunday, 18 January – 15:00

After coughing up a 22-point lead in Paris last weekend to lose by two, the Exeter Chiefs will want to ensure they don’t make the same mistake on Sunday, especially considering Cardiff overturned Racing 92 with 25 unanswered points last weekend.

Already assured of their places in the knockouts, the winners of this one could move up to second place in Pool 3 if Ulster lose at home to Stade Francais.

At the very least, the Chiefs should move up one spot to third at their visitors’ expense as they’re tough to beat at Sandy Park, where they’re on a five-match winning streak.

Prediction: Exeter Chiefs by 5.

Lyon v Benetton

Sunday, 18 January – 15:00

Last season’s runners-up Lyon are in dire straits. They’re rooted at the bottom of Pool 2 with zero wins, and have won just two of their last 10 games in all competitions. 

Benetton, conversely, top the pool with three consecutive wins, including decimating a weakened Dragons team 74-21 last weekend. The cold conditions will be Lyon’s ally, but the in-form Italians should manage to get the W.   

Prediction: Benetton by 7.

Racing 92 v Cheetahs

Sunday, 18 January – 19:30

If the Cheetahs didn’t have bad luck, they’d have no luck at all.

A torrid campaign that started with heavy losses to the Exeter Chiefs (42-12) and Stade Francais (45-22) somehow got even worse when they were literally iced out of playoff contention.

Despite doing everything in their power to save their third round fixture against Ulster, including moving it from their ‘home’ base of the NRCA Stadium in Amsterdam to Dukes Rugby Club in ‘s-Hertogenbosch and individuals working to remove snow off the pitch for three days, the game was cancelled and Ulster were awarded a 28-0 win.

The winless run could not have come at a worse time for the Free Staters, as this season marks the end of their three-year invitation to play in the European second-tier competition.

With no word yet on whether they’ll receive another invitation, Sunday’s game could be the Cheetahs’ last in the Challenge Cup and leave them in the wilderness as far as international competitions are concerned.

Racing are also out of the playoff race following losses to Ulster (61-7) and Cardiff (32-13) on either side of a 31-all draw with Exeter, but you’d have to fancy them to win at home.

A spirited showing, you’d have to think, would boost the Cheetahs’ chances of receiving another invite, while a heavy defeat could close their European chapter.

Either way, I don’t see them finishing their campaign with a win.

Prediction: Racing 92 by 10.