EPCR Challenge Cup Predictions – Round 2

The Free Staters face Stade Francais at their Amsterdam ‘home’ base on Saturday afternoon, while the Lions look to take down the Newcastle Red Bulls at Kingston Park later in the day.

Montpellier v Zebre

Friday, 12 December – 22:00

Two-time Challenge Cup winners Montpellier showed they’re hungry for a third title with a 24-13 away win over Black Lion last weekend. Zebre also impressed as they thumped newcomers Montauban 41-17.

In a battle of power versus speed, Montpellier’s muscle at the gainline, in the set pieces and at the breakdown, should overwhelm their Italian visitors.

Prediction: Montpellier by 15.

Benetton v Perpignan

Saturday, 13 December – 15:00

The other Italian outfit went big game hunting in South Africa and earned a cherished scalp as they fought back to bank a 26-18 win over the Lions at Ellis Park.

Embattled Perpignan finally had reason to celebrate as they thrashed the Dragons 41-17 to claim their first win in all competitions since June. That joy will be short-lived, though, as Benetton will triumph comfortably in Treviso.

Prediction: Benetton by 18.

Cheetahs v Stade Francais

Saturday, 13 December – 15:00

With their lack of game time going into the competition, it was always going to be tough for the Cheetahs to hit the ground running, especially given that they had to start off at Sandy Park. The Exeter Chiefs proved far too switched on for the Free Staters, who went down 42-12.

With 80 minutes under their belt, the Cheetahs should be better this week, and even though they don’t have much of a home advantage in Amsterdam, at least both they and Stade Francais had to travel. There are significant cracks in the Cheetahs’ structures, but their strike power in transition makes them dangerous.

Stade Francais had a poor start but then shifted gears to leave Cardiff in their dust, winning 38-17. They struggle away from home, but their tactical intelligence, accurate kicking game and high conversion rate should see them get the better of the Cheetahs in this first meeting between the teams.

Prediction: Stade Francais by 7.

Montauban v Ospreys

Saturday, 13 December – 17:15

A team with a history in the lower tiers of French rugby, Montauban are back in the Challenge Cup for the first time in 15 years and their 24-point loss in Parma last weekend showed they’re going to find the going tough in the European second tier.

The Ospreys produced a famous comeback, rallying from 21 points down to beat Connacht 24-21 and lay down a marker of intent for Round Two. It’s not often that the Welsh side have a higher pedigree and superior depth than their opponents, and they’ll make those advantages count. 

Prediction: Ospreys by 17.

Newcastle Red Bulls v Lions

Saturday, 13 December – 19:30

No one, not even their coach Ivan van Rooyen, can figure out the Lions. They lose the games they’re expected to win and win the games they’re expected to lose. It’s a double-edged sword they’re simply unable to dodge and cost them big time against Benetton last weekend.

In control at 18-8, the Pride proceeded to implode at Ellis Park, and their 26-18 loss meant they came away empty-handed. They are erratic to the bone with persistent game management issues.

Newcastle are flying high after their historic 23-14 win as over last year’s finalists, Lyon. Two late Red Bulls tries confirmed the comeback as they claimed their first win following their headlining takeover and showed they’re here to play in the Challenge Cup.

With an eye on next weekend’s United Rugby Championship derby against the Stormers, the Lions have sent an understrength side to England, which, coupled with the high of the Red Bulls’ breakthrough win, should see the hosts prevail.

Prediction: Newcastle Red Bulls by 5.

Cardiff v Ulster

Saturday, 13 December – 22:00

No strangers to one another, these two URC clubs will collide in the Welsh capital.

Ulster have won seven of the last 10 games between the teams, with Cardiff winning two, while they played to a 24-all draw in 2017.

The Irish side were on a six-game winning streak in this rivalry before Cardiff eked out a 21-19 victory in their last meeting in 2024, proving they can beat the Ulstermen.

That said, Ulster made the most emphatic statement of the opening round with a 61-7 rout of Racing 92 and they’ll march to another victory here.

Prediction: Ulster by 10.

Connacht v Black Lion

Saturday, 13 December – 22:00

Connacht’s 24-21 loss to the Ospreys after leading 21-0 was the worst possible result for Black Lion as it means the Irish side won’t underestimate the Georgians, who succumbed 24-13 to Montpellier last weekend.

Black Lion have only won two Challenge Cup games in their history and they won’t add a third in Galway. Connacht, lest we forget, smashed the Sharks 44-17 in the URC last month, so expect them to pull clear and win comfortably. 

Prediction: Connacht by 19.

Racing 92 v Exeter Chiefs

Sunday, 14 December – 15:00

These two clubs carry heavy European pedigrees. Their rivalry was given global attention when Exeter beat Racing in the final of the 2020 Investec Champions Cup, and both teams are eager to return to the European top-flight.

The real Racing will turn up for this clash after a weakened team were walloped 61-7 by Ulster last weekend. Even with that in mind, Exeter looked so good in their 30-point win over the Cheetahs that they’re worth backing.

Prediction: Exeter Chiefs by 3.

Dragons v Lyon

Sunday, 14 December – 17:15

There will be no respite for the dreadful Dragons as they host a Lyon side hell-bent on making up for last weekend’s shock 23-14 loss to the Newcastle Red Bulls.

The Dragons, who’ve forgotten what winning feels like, took another L in France, crashing to a 41-17 defeat to Perpignan, and are set for more disappointment against last season’s finalists.

Prediction: Lyon by 16.