EPCR Challenge Cup Predictions – Round of 16

The Durbanites – who kick off the action against Connacht in Galway on Friday night – are Mzansi’s lone representatives in the knockouts of Europe’s second-tier club competition, having dropped down from the Investec Champions Cup, while the Lions and Cheetahs failed to progress from the pool phase.

Montpellier, Benetton and Ulster set the pace by topping their respective pools and claiming home advantage in the knockouts, with Stade Francais, Zebre, Newcastle Red Bulls, Connacht and the Exeter Chiefs also confirming home advantage in the Round of 16.

All three Welsh representatives – the Dragons, Ospreys and Cardiff – are still in the running, alongside Perpignan, with the Sharks, Munster, La Rochelle and Pau entering the fray after finishing fifth in their Champions Cup pools.

Connacht v Sharks

Friday, 3 April – 21:00

Sharks coach JP Pietersen finds himself in a pickle. Since taking over from John Plumtree, the former World Cup-winning Springboks winger has gotten the Durbanites back on the right track.

They’ve climbed up to 10th place on the United Rugby Championship ladder, seven points behind the eighth-placed Bulls. The burning question now is, do they go all in on the URC front in their quest to secure an all-important place in next year’s Champions Cup, or do they pivot and go all out to win the Challenge Cup, like they did in 2024?

Either way, Galway is a terrible place to play rugby for visiting teams. The Sharks know this all too well, having been battered there 44-17 last November. Stylistically, the Irish outfit seem to have the Sharks’ number, with them having won four of the five meetings between the sides.

Stuart Lancaster’s men are also on a roll, with their 21-14 victory over the Ospreys last weekend stretching their winning streak to five and moving them up to ninth place in the URC.

Ultimately, while the Sharks have grown significantly as a collective and developed doggedness that will serve them well in Galway, home ground advantage gives Connacht the edge.

Prediction: Connacht by 3.

Montpellier v Perpignan

Saturday, 4 April – 13:30

Septeo Stadium will stage an all-French showdown where hosts Montpellier are poised to march on.

The two-time Challenge Cup winners were flawless in the pool stage, collecting maximum points, and the top seeds have their sights firmly set on the silverware.

They won’t overlook Perpignan, though. Despite winning just one of their pool games, against the Dragons (41-17), and sitting second last in the TOP 14, Perpignan picked up a timely 36-20 win over a solid if not full-strength Toulon side last weekend.

Thus, Montpellier will take them seriously, all but eliminating chances of an upset.  

Prediction: Montpellier by 20.

Exeter Chiefs v Munster

Saturday, 4 April – 13:30

The big game of the weekend, aside from the Sharks’ assignment, will see former Champions Cup winners go blow for blow in a heavyweight showdown at Sandy Park.

The English club secured home ground advantage with two wins and a draw in the pool stage, while Munster are amongst the teams who’ve dropped down from the Champions Cup.

Nothing separates the sides, with each having won two of the previous meetings after the first ended in a 10-all draw. The Chiefs won the most recent encounter, though, triumphing 32-24 in the 2023/24 season.

Even though Munster have won just two of their last nine games in all competitions, they showed what tough customers they are by pushing the Bulls close in Pretoria last weekend.

I do expect Exeter, who’re 7-1 in their last eight matches across competitions, to win, but I won’t be shocked if the visitors snatch it.

Prediction: Exeter Chiefs by 3.  

Benetton v Cardiff

Saturday, 4 April – 18:30

The tussle in Treviso is a repeat of the 2023 quarter-final, which Benetton won 27-23. The two URC clashes since then have also gone the way of the home team.

Benetton may be down in 12th position in the URC, but they’ve been brilliant in the Challenge Cup, topping their pool with four wins from four. The Italians also lead multiple stat categories, including points, carries, metres made, clean breaks, and defenders beaten.

Cardiff, who booked their playoff place with two home wins, have been focusing on the URC, where they’re currently sixth and looking to finish in the top four. They look set to qualify for next year’s Champions Cup, whereas Benetton’s hopes rest on them winning the Challenge Cup.

Therefore, this game means much more to the hosts, and that extra motivation should get them over the line.

Prediction: Benetton by 2.

Newcastle Red Bulls v La Rochelle

Saturday, 4 April – 21:00

How the mighty have fallen.

La Rochelle have gone from recent two-time Champions Cup winners to falling by the wayside.

In addition to their Champions Cup pool stage exit, they’re also outside the top eight in the TOP 14 in ninth position, leaving them in the wilderness.

Newcastle bagged three wins from four outings in the pool stage. However, with them being on an eight-game losing streak, I have to go with La Rochelle in this first-ever encounter.

Prediction: La Rochelle by 6.

Ulster v Ospreys

Saturday, 4 April – 21:00

URC rivals battle it out in Belfast.

Ulster topped their pool to secure third seed, while the Ospreys qualified for the knockouts in 14th.

Add their URC log positions (Ulster are third and the Ospreys 11th) and that the Irish club have a flawless record against the Welsh side at home, and there’s a clear winner in this one.

Prediction: Ulster by 18.

Stade Francais v Dragons

Sunday, 5 April – 13:30

Stade Francais enter this clash in the French capital as strong pool performers with three wins from four, while the Dragons secured their place in the playoffs with two victories.

The hosts are hoping to replicate the heroics of the 2017 class who clinched the silverware. That might be a bridge too far for the current crop, but they do have enough firepower to blow the Dragons away. 

Prediction: Stade Francais by 19.

Zebre v Pau

Sunday, 5 April – 18:30

Zebre have been out there living double lives this season. They’re dead last in the URC, and yet, they’ve impressed in the Challenge Cup with three pool wins.

Relegated from the Champions Cup, Pau could be strong title contenders…if they choose to be. However, as they’re currently second in the TOP 14, chances are they see the Challenge Cup that they’ve falling into as an inconvenience.

Therefore, I’m expecting them to field a weakened team, which would open the door for Zebre to advance to the quarter-finals. 

Prediction: Zebre by 4.