UFC Fight Night: Taira v Park Predictions

The co-headliner at the UFC APEX pits Mateusz Rebecki against Chris Duncan in an exciting lightweight battle, while fellow 155-pounders Elves Brener and Esteban Ribovics will battle it out in the featured bout.

The first half of the main card consists of a bantamweight bout between Karol Rosa and Nora Cornolle, a welterweight tilt between Neil Magny and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, and a featherweight fight between Danny Silva and Kevin Vallejos.

MAIN CARD:                                                                                             

When: Sunday, August 3, 3 AM SAST

Tatsuro Taira (1.25) v HyunSung Park (3.80) (Flyweight)

Sixth-ranked Taira (16-1) has been thrown a late curveball as his original opponent, fourth-ranked Amir Albazi, was forced to withdraw on Monday. Determined to stay on the card, he welcomed a fresh challenge, and the unbeaten Park answered the call.

For Taira, it’s a chance to get back on track after he suffered the first loss of his career against Brandon Royval last October, while for Park, it’s a golden opportunity to propel himself into the top 10. Expect fast and furious action in this one.

One of the hottest prospects in mixed martial arts, Taira was cooled off by his split decision loss to perennial title challenger Royval. With a bit of luck, the decision could’ve gone his way, so the result wasn’t the end of the world.

If anything, it was a learning experience for the bright 25-year-old, and it’ll be interesting to see how he responds now that he is no longer undefeated. While he’s mainly known as a grappler, he’s showcased a well-rounded skillset since joining the UFC two years ago.

Taira, who has five knockouts and seven submissions to his name, is not just impressive inside the Octagon, where he has speed and skill in equal measure, but outside of it as well. He’s as humble, hard-working, and calm as can be with composure well beyond his years.

Park was scheduled to face former title challenger Steve Erceg next week, but happily traded that tilt for a maiden main event.

The former Road to UFC winner brings a perfect record of 10-0 and nine finishes (four knockouts and five submissions) into the clash. The South Korean is aggressive, well-rounded, and resilient. However, he’s been hittable in exchanges and has shown moments of vulnerability when forced to grapple off his back.

Park is a real threat, but he’s still raw in certain areas and has never faced anyone close to Taira’s calibre. Taira, in turn, has elite-level and main event experience, along with superior tactical and technical prowess. He’s also defensively responsible and has superior grappling, so bank on the Japanese prodigy to return to winning ways.

Prediction: Taira by submission.

Best Bet: Taira by submission at 2.50.

Alternative Bet: Under 4.5 rounds at 1.55.

Mateusz Rebecki (1.48) v Chris Duncan (2.60) (Lightweight)

The co-main event promises to be an action-packed affair. These two are willing to engage everywhere and take damage to dish it out, so this should be a fun one.

While both men have gone 4-1 in the UFC, Rebecki (20-2) has faced the stiffer competition. The Pole had a remarkable 16-fight win streak snapped by Diego Ferreira last May, but rebounded with a split decision win over Myktybek Orolbai last time out, with the duo taking home Fight of the Night honours.

Best known for his explosive grappling, he has very effective takedowns and is aggressive on top with good ground-and-pound and submissions. A berserker on the feet, he lands a high volume of strikes (4.7 significant strikes per minute) and showed his toughness in his win over Orolbai.

While mainly a striker, Duncan (13-2) showed his evolution to string together consecutive submission wins over Bolaji Oki and Jordan Vucenic. That said, “The Problem” won’t want to go to the ground with Rebecki, who’s the superior grappler.

Duncan is an accurate striker and possesses wicked knockout power, so the Scottish fighter shouldn’t be counted out. However, Rebecki has the toughness to push through and the strength and wrestling advantage to get Duncan out of there. 

Prediction: Rebecki by stoppage.

Best Bet: Rebecki by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 2.10.

Alternative Bet: Rebecki by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.50.

Elves Brener (3.00) v Esteban Ribovics (1.36) (Lightweight)

Lightweights looking to course correct collide in the featured bout.

Brener (16-5) burst onto the UFC scene in some style, scoring a hat-trick of wins, including back-to-back knockout victories over Guram Kutateladze and Kaynan Kruschewsky. The Brazilian went off the boil from there, though, and is desperate to stop a two-fight skid.

Win, lose or draw, Ribovics (14-2) is a must-watch fighter with his balls-to-the-wall mentality. He’s coming off consecutive Fight of the Night bangers, winning the first against Daniel Zellhuber and dropping the second by split decision to Nasrat Haqparast.

What makes the aggressive Argentinian a sizeable favourite is the fact that he has solid takedown defence that should enable him to keep the fight on the feet, and that he’s an absolute machine gun, landing a whopping 8.08 significant strikes per minute.

“El Gringo” isn’t the hardest hitter, though, so I’m favouring a decision win over a stoppage.

Prediction: Ribovics by decision.

Best Bet: Ribovics by decision at 3.00.

Alternative Bet: Fight to go the distance at 2.20.

Karol Rosa (1.55) v Nora Cornolle (2.40) (Bantamweight)

This bout between top-15 bantamweights has upset written all over it.

Veteran striker Rosa (18-7) has been consistently inconsistent, trading wins and losses over her last eight fights. Last time out, the Brazilian was outpointed by Ailin Perez, and I don’t see her bouncing back this time. Ranked 10th, she’s high on volume, but far from sophisticated.

Three wins out of four have seen Cornolle (9-2) climb to No. 12 in the rankings. Fighting out of France, “Wonder” has more weapons at her disposal as she’s a former European Muay Thai champion with an evolving ground game, which earned her a submission win over Hailey Cowan in April. More balanced, she has my backing.

Prediction: Cornolle by decision.

Best Bet: Cornolle at 2.40.

Alternative Bet: Cornolle by decision at 2.87.

Neil Magny (2.62) v Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (1.45) (Welterweight)

Stalwarts on the slide square off in this welterweight matchup.

Magny (29-13) is aiming to avoid the first three-fight losing streak of his career, while Zaleski dos Santos (25-9-1) is 1-2-1 in his last four fights and 4-4-1 in his last nine.

Magny is used to playing the gatekeeper role, serving as the acid test for promising up-and-comers, so this battle against a fellow veteran is a change of pace for him.

“The Haitian Sensation” has made a career of overcoming the odds, and while he couldn’t stop the rise of Michael Morales and Carlos Prates in his last two outings, his well-roundedness and high-level experience make him a juicy underdog.

Prediction: Magny by decision.

Best Bet: Magny at 2.62.

Alternative Bet: Magny by decision at 3.60.

Danny Silva (3.95) v Kevin Vallejos (1.22) (Featherweight)

Hot prospects in the featherweight division will engage in a fire-fight to get the main card underway.

A silky boxer, Silva (10-1) is on a four-fight win streak. “El Puma” hasn’t been convincing in the UFC, though, with both of his wins inside the Octagon being by split decision.

Vallejos (15-1), meanwhile, made an immediate impact with a first-round stoppage win over SeungWoo Choi in his promotional debut to take his knockout tally up to 11.

“El Chino” very much looks like a prodigy, and with a serious power advantage and smooth footwork, he’s primed to pick up another win in impressive fashion. 

Prediction: Vallejos by knockout.

Best Bet: Vallejos by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.90.

Alternative Bet: Under 2.5 rounds at 1.76.