UFC Fight Night: Imavov v Borralho Predictions

What promises to be a chaotic co-headliner between France’s own Benoit Saint Denis and Mauricio Ruffy is one of two lightweight fights on the main card. The other tilt at 155 pounds will see Bolaji Oki battle Mason Jones.

Plus, Modestas Bukauskas meets Paul Craig in a clash of lethal light heavyweights, unbeaten French prospect Axel Sola makes his UFC debut against Rhys McKee at welterweight, and former two-division Bellator champion Patricio Freire welcomes Losene Keita to the Octagon in a fascinating featherweight showdown.

MAIN CARD

Nassourdine Imavov (2.00) v Caio Borralho (1.76) (Middleweight)

When: Saturday, September 6, 9 PM SAST

Winds of change are blowing through the middleweight division. There’s a new king in Khamzat Chimaev, who dethroned South Africa’s Dricus du Plessis last month, and new contenders have come through the ranks.

Two of those will meet in this weekend’s main event, and two more – Reinier de Ridder and Anthony Hernandez – will headline UFC Vancouver in October. Whoever wins and does so more impressively will likely be the first to challenge Chimaev, providing all the incentive in the world for these four to show out.

Imavov (15-4) is the highest-ranked of the bunch, sitting second, and heads into his headlining showdown on a four-fight win streak. Beating the likes of Roman Dolidze, Jared Cannonier, and Brendan Allen is impressive, but the surging “Sniper” reached the next level in his career when he knocked out former two-time champion Israel Adesanya in February.

Born in Russia and fighting out of France, Imavov’s only loss since mid-2021 was against former titleholder Sean Strickland in January 2023. While he’s well-rounded, stand-up is where he thrives. The 29-year-old is dynamic with a diverse arsenal and is adept at distance control. He’s good in close and at range, and given the stylistic matchup, he’ll likely look to tee off on the outside.

Borralho (17-1) remains unbeaten inside the Octagon after graduating from Dana White’s Contender Series in late 2021. That run has seen him get past seven men, with the last two, in particular, speaking to his potential as they came over veteran Craig and former title challenger Cannonier.

The seventh-ranked Brazilian’s overall win streak is 16 and dates all the way back to his second pro fight in 2015. What makes him so successful is his pressure game and smothering grappling. His striking is improving but is mostly used to mask takedown attempts.

Once he gets hold of an opponent, “The Natural” is strong in the clinch and on the mat, where he wears on his foe and executes methodical ground-and-pound and submission attempts to keep them guessing and tire them out.

This is a compelling clash of styles between two red hot rising stars that could go either way. While both have stopped their fair share of opponents on the feet and on the ground, neither is known as a finisher, and this high-stakes headliner will most likely go the distance.

Both men have gone five full rounds before, so cardio shouldn’t be an issue. In the end, it boils down to whether Borralho can take down his bigger opponent and keep him down for significant periods. I doubt it. Imavov is physically strong, which along with his footwork and range management, should see him make it a striking battle for the most part, which he’ll win.

Prediction: Imavov by decision.
Best Bet: Imavov by decision at 3.75.

Alternative Bet: Imavov at 2.00.

Benoit Saint Denis (2.50) v Mauricio Ruffy (1.50) (Lightweight)

The co-main event is a case of kill-or-be-killed as the combatants are two highly trained killers in the lightweight top 15.

France’s Saint Denis (14-3) was on a five-fight win streak prior to his clash with Dustin Poirier last March, in which he went toe to toe with the former interim champion until he was knocked out in the second round.

A main event loss to Renato Moicano in last year’s Paris event followed, however, he bounced back from that bitter defeat with a submission win over Kyle Prepolec in May.

As dangerous as they come, No. 13-ranked Saint Denis is a former French Army Special Forces paratrooper who lives up to his “God of War” moniker with a 100% finish rate (four knockouts and 10 submissions).

Ruffy (12-1) is on a serious roll and is the ideal dance partner for Saint Denis. The Brazilian has won seven straight fights, three of which were inside the Octagon.

Flashy and unpredictable, “One Shot” has claimed all but one of his 11 pro wins by knockout and is coming off a KO of the Year contender against King Green in March. 

Modestas Bukauskas (1.25) v Paul Craig (3.65) (Light Heavyweight)

The featured bout is a classic striker versus grappler matchup between dangerous light heavyweights.

Proficient stand-up fighter Bukauskas (18-6) has momentum on his side with three wins on the trot and has won five of his six bouts since returning to the UFC in 2023.

“The Baltic Gladiator” scored his 10th knockout win over Raffael Cerqueira to kick off his 2025 campaign and edged Ion Cutelaba by split decision in May.

Craig (17-9-1), a former top-15 contender at light heavyweight and middleweight, is back at 205 pounds after three consecutive losses at 185 pounds.

The super intense Scotsman’s only fight this year, against Rodolfo Bellato in June, ended in a no-contest due to an illegal upkick, so it’s been a testing time for him.

As a submission magician with 13 tapout wins, including over current champion Magomed Ankalaev, “Bearjew” remains a threat, but Lithuania’s Bukauskas should dictate terms and get him out of there.

Prediction: Bukauskas by knockout.

Best Bet: Bukauskas by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.80.

Bolaji Oki (2.10) v Mason Jones (1.70) (Lightweight)

Hungry up-and-comers will go after it in the first of the two lightweight fights on the main card.

Despite his obvious talent, Oki (10-2) hasn’t been able to build momentum early in his UFC career, so this is a golden opportunity for him to earn successive wins inside the Octagon for the first time.

“The Zulu Warrior” has alternated results through his first three UFC appearances and most recently outpointed Michael Aswell in May. A striker who’s especially good to the body, Oki is yet to fully let his hands go on the ultimate proving ground.

After a disappointing first stint in the UFC that saw him go 1-2 with one no contest, Jones (16-2) rolled up his sleeves and got back to work on the regional circuit.

“The Dragon” strung together an impressive four-fight win streak (three by knockout) in Cage Warriors to earn his way back to the UFC and started his second term with a decision victory over veteran Jeremy Stephens in May.

Rhys McKee (2.10) v Axel Sola (1.72) (Welterweight)

Having only fought once in each of the last three years and dropping his first two fights in the UFC by decision, it took McKee (14-6-1) time to find his feet inside the Octagon.

The well-rounded Irishman finally broke his duck with a first-round TKO victory over Daniel Frunza in April and aims to build a head of steam. Aggressive by nature, “Skeletor” has a 100% finish rate (11 knockouts and three submissions).

The spotlight will shine on Sola as the 27-year-old Frenchman makes his UFC debut in front of his home crowd. He boasts an unbeaten record of 10-0-1 with five knockouts and one submission.

McKee lost his previous fight at the Accor Arena by decision to Ange Loosa in 2023, and he should experience a case of déjà vu.

Prediction: Sola by decision.

Best Bet: Sola at 1.72.

Alternative Bet: Sola by decision (check markets).

Patricio Freire (2.75) v Losene Keita (1.44) (Featherweight)

One of Bellator’s all-time greats, Freire stumbled when tasked with making the step up to the UFC in April, losing his Octagon debut to Yair Rodriguez by decision.

However, the former two-weight Bellator champion came good and broke into the rankings when he outworked No. 11-ranked Dan Ige in July and now has to defend his spot against a potent promotional newcomer.

Keita (16-1) is a highly-touted 27-year-old whose only loss came due to injury. “Black Panther” became a two-division Oktagon MMA champion when he stopped Ronald Paradeiser to clinch the lightweight title in December and now seeks to make a serious splash in his UFC debut.   

As his 10 knockouts suggest, Keita is a dangerous man, but I’m surprised that he’s the favourite. “Pitbull” isn’t done yet, and given his pedigree and complete skillset, the Brazilian veteran is worth backing. 

Prediction: Freire by decision.

Best Bet: Freire at 2.75.

Alternative Bet: Freire by decision (check markets).