UFC Fight Night: Evloev v Murphy Predictions

Murphy headlines a list of British fighters set to showcase their skills on home soil, including another unbeaten prospect in Luke Riley, who takes on Michael Aswell in the co-main event.

The other local stars on the main card are Michael Page, Sam Patterson, Christian Leroy Duncan and newcomer Kurtis Campbell.

Movsar Evloev (1.42) v Lerone Murphy (2.85) (Featherweight)

MAIN CARD:

Saturday, March 21, 10:00 PM SAST

Justice delayed is not justice denied.

Both of Saturday’s headliners were criminally overlooked to challenge featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski in his home country of Australia in January. The shot instead went to Diego Lopes, who predictably lost on points to “The Great” for a second time. 

Now, these two have one last roadblock to go through – each other. With the winner guaranteed to earn a championship opportunity, someone’s 0 has got to go at the O2 Arena.

It’s extremely rare that two fighters who have fought their way into the top five of their division are still undefeated. That’s what we have here – two men who have travelled long and rocky roads full of potential pitfalls, yet remain perfect when it comes to mixed martial arts competition.

No. 1-ranked Evloev has been nothing short of sensational in amassing a flawless record of 19-0. He might not be the most exciting fighter, with all nine of his Octagon wins coming by decision, but the Russian is a master at imposing his style on his opponent.

A wrestling-heavy tornado of perpetual motion, he holds a victory over Lopes and defeated former bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling last time out. He goes into enemy territory in England as a sizeable favourite to spoil Murphy’s party.

Third-ranked Murphy boasts a record of 17-0-1 and, like Evloev, has nine straight wins in the UFC.

He defeated three division staples in Edson Barboza, Dan Ige and Josh Emmett to enter the 145-pound elite and produced the highlight of his career to date when he starched former Bellator star Aaron Pico with the most spectacular spinning back elbow you’ll ever see in August.

“The Miracle” is a talented striker with eight knockouts to his credit. Full of intestinal fortitude, which helped him survive and recover from a shooting in 2013, the 34-year-old is adept at reading opponents and adjusting accordingly, and will have the crowd on his side.

Evloev has dealt with elite strikers before, whereas Murphy has never faced a grappler quite like Evloev. That’s a double-edged sword that should see Evloev control things and take the crowd out of it en route to a decision victory.

Prediction: Evloev by decision.

Best Bet: Evloev by decision at 1.90.

Luke Riley (1.40) v Michael Aswell (2.90) (Featherweight)

The UFC has rolled out the red carpet for unbeaten Brit Riley in the form of a co-headlining billing. It’s now up to the exciting and promise-filled featherweight to rise to the occasion, and he looks primed to do just that.

The former Cage Warriors standout made the step up to the UFC with aplomb in November by knocking out Bogdan Grad to extend his perfect record to 12-0 with nine KOs.

Coincidentally, Aswell faced Grad on Season 8 of Dana White’s Contender Series in a back-and-forth fight that saw him succumb by split decision.

As they say, though, you can’t keep a good man down, and he ultimately made it to the UFC. Coming off an impressive stoppage win over Lucas Almeida in October, “The Texas Kid” is out to play spoiler on Saturday.

Aswell is no easy out, but Riley is the better athlete and the more polished fighter and should seize the moment in style.

Prediction: Riley by knockout. 

Best Bet: Riley by KO/TKO/DQ at 3.10.

Alternative Bet: Under 2.5 rounds at 2.15.

Michael Page (1.53) v Sam Patterson (2.45) (Welterweight)

The featured bout is an all-English affair.

Page (24-3) is one of the best and most unique strikers in the world, and a showman on top of that. Formerly one of Bellator’s best, he boasts an internet-breaking highlight reel and a big fan base. And yet, the UFC doesn’t seem to know how to book him.

The fast and elusive “Venom” beat Kevin Holland in his promotional debut before being shaded by top contender Ian Machado Garry, who was undefeated at the time. With no welterweight fight offers coming his way, he moved up to middleweight last year and made serious noise by handing Shara Magomedov his first loss and defeating former title challenger Jared Cannonier.

Now he’s back at welterweight, where he’s ranked 13th, for a scrap that makes no sense. With respect to Patterson (14-2-1), he’s not close to the calibre of opponents Page has fought up to now inside the Octagon, and it’s only out of frustration and the fact that time is ticking that the 38-year-old accepted this bout against his unranked countryman.

For Patterson, this is the biggest fight of his career by a long shot. After being knocked out by Yanal Ashmuz in his UFC debut three years ago, he’s been on quite the run, racking up four straight first-round stoppage wins.

Showing his versatility, the 29-year-old submitted Yohan Lainesse and Kiefer Crosbie before knocking out Danny Barlow and Trey Waters. It goes without saying that he’s a dangerous man, and if he is to pull off an upset, it’ll likely be by an early stoppage.

That said, Page is incredibly hard to hit and better men (including the aforementioned high-profile quartet) than Patterson have tried and failed to stop him. He’s very light on his feet and should chip away to get his hand raised at home.

Prediction: Page by decision.

Best Bet: Page by decision at 3.10.

Alternative Bet: Page by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.75.

Iwo Baraniewski (1.15) v Austen Lane (5.25) (Light Heavyweight)

Don’t blink in this barney between potent finishers.

Poland powerhouse Baraniewski is a perfect 7-0 with a 100% finishing rate and has never seen a second round. “Rudy” was a raging bull in his UFC debut in December, KO’ing Ibo Aslan in just 90 seconds in a wild slugfest, and is set to welcome his opponent to the light heavyweight division.

Former NFL star Lane has fought exclusively at heavyweight up till now, going 13-7 with 12 finishes. However, with just one win and four stoppage losses inside the Octagon, he drops down to 205 pounds seeking to save his UFC career.

Weight cuts get harder with time and for a 38-year-old giant standing 6’6″, making 205 will be a battle in itself for Lane. Should he do so successfully, his ‘prize’ is being mauled and sparked out by a 27-year-old with a major speed and skill advantage.

Prediction: Baraniewski by knockout.

Best Bet: Baraniewski in round one at 1.57.

Roman Dolidze (4.75) v Christian Leroy Duncan (1.18) (Middleweight)

After one loss, to a surging Anthony Hernandez who was the favourite going into his recent title eliminator against Sean Strickland, it would be unfair to suddenly label Dolidze (15-4) as a gatekeeper, but that’s what the odds-makers are implying by having him as a major underdog in this clash.

A solid striker, high-level grappler and wily tactician, he was on a three-fight win streak before the loss to “Fluffy”, besting Kevin Holland and former title challengers Anthony Smith and Marvin Vettori, so he’s by no means past his sell-by date.

As the local favourite and younger fighter with heaps of momentum, Duncan (13-2) is rightfully the favourite. He’s 5-2 in the UFC and coming off successive spinning strike knockout wins over Eryk Anders and Marco Tulio Silva.

However, 11th-ranked Dolidze is a cut above the competition “CLD” has faced thus far and I have a sneaky suspicion that the veteran is going to upset the applecart with his fight IQ and vast experience.

Prediction: Dolidze by decision. 

Best Bet: Dolidze at 4.75.

Alternative Bet: Dolidze by decision at 9.00.

Kurtis Campbell (1.40) v Danny Silva (2.90) (Featherweight)

The main card opener pits “The Pink Panther” against “El Puma.”

It’s a massive night for Campbell as he not only realises his dream of fighting in the UFC but does so on home soil. He punched his ticket to the big show with a knockout win over Demba Seck on Dana White’s Contender Series in September and is a flawless 8-0 with six stoppages.

Silva (10-2) is a big test straight out of the gate for Campbell. The American shaded Joshua Culibao and Lucas Almeida by split decision to start his UFC tenure before dropping a decision to Kevin Vallejos last time out.

Considering the Argentine ace ran through divisional staple Josh Emmett in last weekend’s UFC 114 main event, that points loss is nothing to be ashamed of.

In what should be a high-octane show opener, the slicker striker and more defensively sound Campbell should come away with the win.

Prediction: Campbell by decision.

Best Bet: Campbell by decision at 2.00.

Alternative Bet: Campbell at 1.40.