UFC Fight Night: Bautista v Oliveira Predictions

UFC Vegas 113’s co-headliner will see elite flyweights Amir Albazi and Kyoji Horiguchi face off, while leading heavyweight Jailton Almeida collides with Rizvan Kuniev in the featured bout.

Plus, Michal Oleksiejczuk meets Marc-Andre Barriault at middleweight, Jean Matsumoto battles Farid Basharat at bantamweight and Dustin Jacoby dukes it out with Julius Walker at light heavyweight.

Mario Bautista (1.50) and Vinicius Oliveira (2.50) (Bantamweight)

MAIN CARD:

Sunday, February 8, 3 AM SAST

This weekend’s main event is a classic clash between a staple in the bantamweight elite and a rising star.

Bautista (16-3) has battled and beaten some of the best the 135-pound division has to offer. With his complete skillset and high fight IQ, he went on an impressive eight-fight win streak, including beating Hall of Famer Jose

Aldo and spoiling former Bellator champion Patchy Mix’s UFC debut.

Closing in on a title shot, Bautista’s momentum was brought to a halt by Umar Nurmagomedov, who outworked him in October to win on the scorecards. Losing to Nurmagomedov, whose only blemish is a decision defeat to then-champion Merab Dvalishvili, is nothing to be ashamed of, but it does put Bautista in a potentially sticky situation. 

Ideally, you want to fight someone higher ranked than you, but because of his setback, Bautista now has to defend his No. 9 ranking from the oncoming Oliveira (23-3), who’s ranked 11th. It’s a fight Bautista, as the veteran and favourite, can’t afford to lose, so the pressure is squarely on the 32-year-old.

Oliveira immediately established himself as one to watch when he won his UFC debut with a spectacular flying knee knockout against Benardo Sopaj and enters his first main event with a perfect 4-0 record inside the Octagon.

A powerful striker with great athleticism, “Lok Dog” has 16 knockouts to his credit, a very high number for a bantamweight. He banked valuable Octagon minutes in his last three fights, defeating Ricky Simon, Said Nurmagomedov and Kyler Phillips by decision, proving he’s not just a knockout artist.

That said, Oliveira’s only real path to victory in this fight is to catch Bautista with something big and get him out of there. That’ll be no easy feat considering Bautista has only been knocked out once, by Trevin Jones, in 2021.

He’s only gotten better and smarter since then and has been able to neutralise and control all comers aside from Nurmagomedov. Bank on Bautista to use his experience, wrestling and clinch work to suffocate and frustrate Oliveira en route to a decision win.

Prediction: Bautista by decision.

Best Bet: Bautista by decision at 3.00.

Alternative Bet: Bautista at 1.50.

Amir Albazi (3.80) v Kyoji Horiguchi (1.25) (Flyweight)

The co-main event is a case of making up for lost time for both members of the flyweight top 10

Plagued by injury, sixth-ranked Albazi (17-2) has only fought three times since 2022. Worse still, the last time we saw “The Prince”, he dropped a decision to former two-time champion Brandon Moreno in 2024. Thus, he’s looking to shake off rust and get back on track.

A blast from the past, Horiguchi (35-5) made a triumphant return to the UFC in November, submitting Tagir Ulanbekov to reintroduce himself and show he’s more than just a second-degree black belt in karate.

In his first term in the world’s leading mixed martial arts promotion, he lost just once in eight outings – in a championship bout with the great Demetrious Johnson in 2015.

After putting in work in Bellator and Rizin, the Japanese ace made the most of his shot back to the big time to instantly establish himself as a contender, landing at No. 8 in the rankings.

Albazi is a tough out as his record suggests, and has never been stopped, but all the momentum is with Horiguchi, who’s primed to extend his win streak to eight.

Prediction: Horiguchi by decision.

Best Bet: Horiguchi by decision at 1.83.

Jailton Almeida (1.66) v Rizvan Kuniev (2.15) (Heavyweight)

Replacing Ryan Spann on short notice, Almeida (22-4) is out to commit a smash-and-grab in the featured bout.

A Brazilian behemoth who’s been close to earning a crack at the heavyweight title a couple of times, he put on a typically smothering grappling performance in his crucial clash against Alexander Volkov in October.

His inactivity on top came back to bite him, though, as he lost by split decision, and stepping up to fight this weekend shows how eager he is to put that behind him and get back on the horse.

It’s clear that the UFC is high on Kuniev (13-3-1). A man who dominated outside of the promotion, the Dagestani was thrust straight into a showdown with fifth-ranked Curtis Blaydes in his Octagon debut in June.

The result didn’t go his way, with the split decision loss snapping his 12-fight win streak, but as things turned out, he’s getting another massive opportunity against sixth-ranked “Malhadinho” this weekend.

As predictable and one-dimensional as Almeida is, he’s taken down everyone he’s faced and controlled most of them. He should be able to do the same to Kuniev and will be more active in top control to come away with the win.

Prediction: Almeida by decision.

Best Bet: Almeida by decision at 5.00.

Alternative Bets: Almeida by submission at 3.25 or outright at 1.66.

Michal Oleksiejczuk (1.20) v Marc-Andre Barriault (4.50) (Middleweight)

This mouth-watering middleweight matchup is the favourite to claim the Fight of the Night honours and $100,000 that comes with it for both combatants.

Veteran finishers, these two will slug it until there’s only one left standing.

Oleksiejczuk (21-9) has only gone to a decision four times. All but one of his 17 stoppages are knockouts, including his back-to-back first-round wins over Sedriques Dumas and Gerald Meerschaert in his last two fights.

Barriault (17-10) is anything but a man to bank on on the betting front, but one thing is certain, he’ll put on a show win, lose or draw.

“Powerbar” has a dozen finishes, 11 by knockout, including against Bruno Silva in his most recent win. Outpointed by Shara Magomedov last time out, he’s keen to upset the apple cart.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=toOGx16VRKw

However, there’s a reason why Barriault is the biggest underdog of the main card and Poland’s “Hussar” will show why by putting the French-Canadian down.

Prediction: Oleksiejczuk by knockout.

Best Bet: Oleksiejczuk by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.57.

Jean Matsumoto (3.25) v Farid Basharat (1.33) (Bantamweight)

Up-and-coming bantamweights with impeccable records battle it out in this one.

Matsumoto is 17-1, with his lone loss coming against veteran Rob Font by split decision on short notice. The Brazilian has since returned to winning ways by outworking Miles Johns in August and plans to start another streak this weekend.

That will be no easy feat as Basharat is a perfect 14-0. “Ferocious” has continued to impress since arriving in the Octagon in 2023, and a sixth straight win in the promotion should earn him an opportunity to break into the rankings in his next bout.

The Afghan ace is too clever to get ahead of himself and should get the nod from the judges in a fight destined to finish in a decision.

Prediction: Basharat by decision.

Best Bet: Basharat by decision at 1.76.

Dustin Jacoby (1.53) v Julius Walker (2.45) (Light Heavyweight)

Lethal light heavyweights will want to throw their hats in the ring for Fight of the Night in the main card opener.

Like the main event, this is a case of an established UFC veteran taking on a young prospect. Jacoby (21-9-1) will look to rely on his wealth of experience, while Walker (7-1) will bank on his explosiveness.

“The Hanyak” is on a high after consecutive knockout victories over Bruno Lopes and Vito Petrino, proving that at 37, he’s still sharp and deadly.

A killer on the regional circuit, Walker is still finding his feet in the UFC. He lost his only true test against Alonzo Menifield and didn’t show much in his points win over Raffael Cerqueira in August (to make him 1-1 in the promotion).

Jacoby will be too wily and skilled for “Juice Box.”

Prediction: Jacoby by knockout.

Best Bet: Jacoby by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.50.

Alternative Bet: Jacoby at 1.53.