UFC 327: Prochazka v Ulberg Predictions

A second title was originally set to be on the line in the co-headliner at the Kaseya Center, with flyweight champion Joshua Van defending against Tatsuro Taira, but Van was forced to withdraw due to injury.

Former middleweight title challenger Paulo Costa will now share the co-main event spotlight with the dangerous and undefeated Azamat Murzakanov as he starts a new quest at 205 pounds.

Fellow lethal light heavyweight Dominick Reyes and Johnny Walker will also go to war, as will heavyweight powerhouses Curtis Blaydes and Josh Hokit, and featherweight veterans Cub Swanson and Nate Landwehr.

MAIN CARD:

Sunday, April 12, 3:00 AM SAST

Jiri Prochazka (1.85) v Carlos Ulberg (1.90) (Vacant Light Heavyweight Championship)

With Alex Pereira vacating the title and moving up to heavyweight to face Ciryl Gane for the interim championship at the White House in June in a bid to become the first-ever three-division champion, two of the best strikers in the division will duke it out for the 205-pound crown.

Predators of different persuasions promise to put on a striking delight. In one corner, you have a Czech samurai in Prochazka (32-5-1), in the other, you have a Maori warrior in Ulberg (13-1). Willing to do whatever it takes to seize the throne, these two will lay it all on the line.

Born in the wrong era, Prochazka is an old-school death machine. Obsessed with martial arts, he lives in isolation and embarks on solo training missions in the woods almost as much as he sharpens his tools with modern training methods.

He was crowned king of the light heavyweights when he submitted Pereira’s good friend Glover Teixeira in a barnburner in 2022 but was forced to relinquish the title after suffering a serious shoulder injury ahead of the scheduled rematch.

When he returned, it was Pereira who waited for him. After two losses in title bouts to Pereira, “BJP” has worked his way back into contention with a pair of thrilling knockout wins over former champion Jamahal Hill and former title challenger Khalil Rountree Jr last year.

Super athletic and animalistic, Prochazka fights with a kill-or-be-killed mindset that’s only seen him go the distance once in 38 fights. With all but three of his 28 finishes being knockouts, including an all-time great spinning elbow KO of Dominick Reyes, Prochazka is a multi-layered buzzsaw. He throws hands, kicks, elbows and knees and does so dynamically and creatively.

In Ulberg, you have the polar opposite of Prochazka, yet he’s just as dangerous. The New Zealander is a highly technical striker, calculated in his movements and shot selection.

He’s patient and precise, a combination that has seen him string together a nine-fight win streak, including outworking former champion Jan Blachowicz and starching Reyes last time out, the latter being his eighth knockout victory.

Prochazka, in his own way, contains himself early on. He doesn’t take any unnecessary risks. Rather, it’s when he’s down on the scorecards that he erupts like a human volcano. So, even if “Black Jag” builds a lead, as I believe he will, Prochazka’s trademark toxic tonic should see him turn the tables and go full circle back to the top of the mountain.

Prediction: Prochazka by knockout.

Best Bet: Prochazka by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.45 or by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 2.25.

Alternative Bet: Prochazka at 1.85.

Azamat Murzakanov (1.48) v Paulo Costa (2.65) (Light Heavyweight)

Unbeaten beast Murzakanov welcomes former middleweight title challenger Costa to his domain, namely the light heavyweight division, in the co-main event.

A savage southpaw, Murzakanov is a perfect 16-0 in his pro career and has earned five of his six UFC wins by knockout, including back-to-back first-round finishes of Brendson Ribeiro and Aleksandar Rakic last year.

With a dozen knockouts to his name, “The Professional” is a problem for anyone who steps inside the Octagon with him, and has climbed up to sixth place in the rankings.

It seems like a lifetime ago that Costa was the feared, undefeated destroyer who caused mayhem in the middleweight division.

The muscle-bound Brazilian was a big player at 185 pounds, both literally and figuratively, but his aura was shattered by then-champion Israel Adesanya, who made it look easy as he knocked out Costa.

“The Eraser” has never been the same since that emphatic first loss and with his record now at 15-4, he makes what many believe is a long-overdue move to 205 pounds.

No longer burdened by cutting weight, Costa has an opportunity to immediately establish himself as a top contender in his new weight class. He boasts 11 knockouts but has been gun shy since the Adesanya fight and hasn’t won by stoppage since 2018.

Murzakanov will pile on the pressure and it’ll be interesting to see if he can reignite the fire in Costa. Either way, the Russian should add Costa to his list of casualties.

Prediction: Murzakanov by knockout.

Best Bet: Murzakanov by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.90.

Alternative Bet: Under 2.5 rounds at 1.95.

Curtis Blaydes (1.70) v Josh Hokit (2.10) (Heavyweight)

A perennial top contender looks to shut up and shut down a loud and lethal rising star in the featured bout at heavyweight.

Blaydes (19-5) boasts high-profile wins over the likes of Alexander Volkov, Junior dos Santos, Alistair Overeem and Mark Hunt, and has only lost to champions or fellow former title challengers in his UFC career.

He went from losing to Tom Aspinall in an interim title bout to fighting UFC newcomer Rizvan Kuniev last June, coming away with a split decision victory to hold onto his No. 5 ranking.

Arguably the most powerful wrestler in the heavyweight division with vicious ground-and-pound, “Razor” is risking his ranking against another unranked fresh face.

Blaydes has more fights in the UFC than Hokit has in his professional career. Yet, a combination of a 100% finish rate and an over-the-top pro wrestling-like persona puts Hokit in a position to take everything his veteran foe has worked for.

Unbeaten at 8-0 with five knockouts and three submissions, Hokit is entertaining inside and outside of the Octagon, but this is a massive leap up in competition for him. Blaydes should be able to outclass him with a wrestling-heavy approach. If not, he might as well pack it up.  

Prediction: Blaydes by decision.

Best Bet: Blaydes at 1.70.

Alternative Bet: Blaydes by decision at 3.40.

Dominick Reyes (1.66) v Johnny Walker (2.15) (Light Heavyweight)

Top-15 light heavyweights will bring the fireworks in this explosive encounter. Don’t blink as these two share a seek-and-destroy mindset, setting the stage for a scrap that’s all but guaranteed to finish by stoppage. 

A tremendous athlete, Reyes (15-5) gave Jon Jones all he could handle in a decision loss in their title fight back in 2020, and came up short in another championship clash against Jan Blachowicz that same year.

“The Dominator” worked his way back up the ladder with three straight knockout wins over Dustin Jacoby, Anthony Smith and Nikita Krylov, earning the aforementioned title eliminator with Ulberg, which brought his resurgence to a screeching halt. 

Still ranked 10th, he’s not giving up on his title dream and welcomes a fire-fight with Walker (22-9).

A towering tornado of a striker, Walker’s size and unpredictability make him a tall order for even the best at 205 pounds. Standing 6’6″ with a massive 82-inch reach, the 12th-ranked Brazilian can strike from anywhere. Inconsistency has been Walker’s biggest issue. One thing you cannot do, however, is count him out.

After back-to-back knockout losses to former champion Magomed Ankalaev and Volkan Oezdemir, he was seemingly being fed to young killer Zhang Mingyang in the main event of UFC Shanghai in August.

He didn’t get the script, though, as he pulled off a massive upset in the form of a second-round knockout that bounced the local favourite from the ranks of the unbeaten and put himself back on track. 

Walker has calmed down since the wild early days of his UFC career, but he still offers opponents openings and a striker the calibre of Reyes should take advantage of that to bag the win.

Prediction: Reyes by knockout.

Best Bet: Reyes by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.10.

Alternative Bet: Reyes at 1.66.

Cub Swanson (1.90) v Nate Landwehr (1.85) (Featherweight)

Battle-hardened veterans immune to boring fights will start the main card with a bang when they finally meet.

Swanson (30-14) is one of the last of a special breed of fighters who lit up the mixed martial arts world in the WEC back in the day, and has carved out a career to be proud of in the UFC.

“Killer Cub” heads into his last dance as a UFC Hall of Famer and fresh off a knockout win over Billy Quarantillo last time out.

Landwehr (18-7) is coming off successive knockout losses, but his ridiculous knockout power and do-or-die style make him super dangerous and earned him the honour of being Swanson’s swansong opponent.

Even at 42, Swanson’s last few performances have proved he can still go. He’s choosing to retire rather than the sport retiring him, and as the more technical fighter, he should ride off into the sunset with a win.

Prediction: Swanson by knockout.

Best Bet: Swanson at 1.90.

Alternative Bet: Swanson by KO/TKO/DQ at 3.90.