STATS: WAFCON2024 FINAL PREVIEW

The hosts needed a penalty shootout to overcome a determined Ghana on Tuesday night and book a place in their 2nd consecutive final.

Likewise, Nigeria left it late to beat Banyana Banyana, thanks to an injury-time winner from Michelle Alozie. This is a statistical preview of the big game (and the related 3rd-place playoff).

Final: Nigeria v Morocco

Key stats

• Nigeria are in their 10th WAFCON final, and have won all previous nine before
• Morocco are the 5th nation to reach back-to-back finals
• This is the fourth time the teams have met at the WAFCON tournament, but the first time they have ever met in the final

For those who have followed the women’s game over the last three years, this is a final that many expected. Three years ago, at the end of the last WAFCON (2022), Nigeria were first in the CAF Women’s World ranking, a position that they have maintained until today. That said, the Super Falcons have had some mixed form in that time, but that’s mostly when they have come up against world-class opposition at the Olympic Games and the World Cup. Morocco, meanwhile, was ranked seventh on the continent at the end of the last WAFCON but they have since roared up the rankings to third. The Atlas Lions’ form more recently has been even more impressive – this is their 30th game since October 2023, and they have lost just twice in that time.

This tournament

The two teams have also stood out in the entire tournament, having scored the most goals so far (both 11). Morocco has the edge in that they have found the net in every game they have played, a record they have now extended across two tournaments (11 games since they also hosted the 2022 WAFCON). Nigeria may have blanked once (a 0-0 draw against Algeria), but they have taken more shots than any other team (83), and generated the highest xG (9.6) – a sign og their attacking potency. In addition, they have conceded just once (a penalty vs Banyana). The Moroccans have been leaky at the other end, however, conceding six goals at this tournament, and keeping one clean sheet. Ironically, the current Morocco coach, Jorge Vilda, also previously coached the Spanish women’s national team. He led them to victory at the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup, despite conceding a mammoth seven goals along the way.

Head-to-head

On the head-to-head, Nigeria have the edge. Saturday will be the fourth time the teams meet at this tournament, and Morocco has yet to win a game in regulation time. They lost 8-0 during the 1998 Group stage, before another heavy 6-0 loss at the same stage in the year 2000. However, the most recent meeting was a closer affair, showing how the gap has closed since then. It was the 2022 semi-final, and Nigeria needed an own goal to salvage a draw, before Morocco won the penalty shootout. The odds on offer also highlight how close the teams are, despite Nigeria being made slight favourites. Their 40% implied win probability is just above Morocco’s 35%, with a draw also very probable.

Team to win: Morocco to win

Value bet: Both teams to score

Third-place playoff: Banyana v Ghana

Banyana Banyana play Ghana in the consolatory third place playoff on Friday night. The teams have met already in the Group stages, with Banyana winning 2-0. Overall, this is the 4th time Banyana play a team on two occasions in the same tournament. They’ve never won both games before. However, they are still favourite here.

Team to win: South Africa

Value bet: Over 3.5 goals