UFC 316: Dvalishvili v O’Malley 2 Predictions

The co-main event is soaked in bad blood with Juliana Pena putting her women’s bantamweight title on the line against juggernaut Kayla Harrison.

Staying at 135 pounds, former Bellator champion Patchy Mix makes his UFC debut against Mario Bautista. Plus, Kelvin Gastelum and Joe Pyfer collide at middleweight and Vicente Luque and Kevin Holland face off at welterweight.

MAIN CARD:

When: Sunday, June 8, 4 AM SAST

Merab Dvalishvili (1.33) v Sean O’Malley (3.20) (Bantamweight Championship)

It was last September, in the main event of UFC 306 at the mind-blowing Sphere in Las Vegas, where Dvalishvili (19-4) and O’Malley (18-2-1NC) first met, with the former proving unstoppable. A man on a mission, the Georgian controlled the fight with his dominant grabbling and grabbed the gold following a decision victory.

O’Malley claims he was less than 100% going into the fight and underwent hip surgery after the loss. Fit and fully committed to reclaiming the crown, “Suga” will stand across from Dvalishvili this time with a better understanding of his movements and techniques.

Following his crowning moment, Dvalishvili returned to the Octagon just four months later and handed Umar Nurmagomedov his first loss to extend his remarkable win streak to 11. The epitome of relentlessness in mixed martial arts terms, Dvalishvili’s a tireless wrestler the likes of which the UFC has never seen before.

The all-time leader in takedowns, “The Machine” pushes an otherworldly pace and never slows down. His conditioning is out of this world and sees him either smother or overwhelm opponents. He’s not the most dangerous fighter around, with the last of his four finishes dating back to 2021, but he is one of the most efficient.

O’Malley, in contrast, is a knockout artist. He’s a sensational striker with bold self-belief and a flashy style that sees him either starch opponents or piece them up. He was on a seven-fight win streak prior to the loss against Dvalishvili and is convinced he’ll be the man to derail the 34-year-old.

Lean and lanky, his distance management, accuracy and shot selection are top tier and his unpredictability allows him to transform from a sniper into a berserker in the blink of an eye. He has a dozen KOs to his name, including a title-winning one over Aljamain Sterling – a standout grappler and Dvalishvili’s training partner – and nine first-round finishes.

Julianna Pena (5.75) v Kayla Harrison (1.12) (Women’s Bantamweight Championship)

Bad blood will boil over in the co-headliner.

Pena (11-5) is looking to start her second reign as 135-pound queen on a high whereas Harrison (18-1) is out to add to her legacy as one of the most decorated women’s combat sports athletes in history.

There’s no love lost between these ladies, and with the winner possibly earning a legacy fight against Amanda Nunes, the greatest female mixed martial artist of all time, the stakes can’t be higher.

Pena pipped Raquel Pennington by split decision last October to recapture the belt. She’s a powerful wrestler with vicious ground-and-pound (three knockouts) and good jiu-jitsu (five submission wins). As pivotal to her success as these strengths are her unwavering confidence and warrior spirit.

That mental strength and willingness to walk through fire to win are what fuels her and saw her pull off one of the biggest upsets in UFC history when she submitted Nunes to win the title for the first time in 2021. She was a massive 7.00 underdog in that fight, so she knows how to defy the odds as she heads into this clash as a big dog again.

Kelvin Gastelum (3.90) v Joe Pyfer (1.25) (Middleweight)

Since winning season 17 of The Ultimate Fighter back in 2013, Gastelum (19-9) has been a staple in the upper echelons of the welterweight and middleweight divisions.

With a nickname like “Bodybagz”, it should come as no surprise that Pyfer (13-3) is a potent predator. He’s finished all but one of his wins (nine knockouts and three submissions) and is coming off a KO victory over Marc-Andre Barriault.

Given how lethal he is, and the fact that he’ll have a big size advantage, Pyfer is the overwhelming favourite. While I do see him winning, I see it happening on the scorecards as the durable Gastelum has never been knocked out.

Prediction: Pyfer by decision.
Best Bet: Pyfer by decision at 2.50.
Alternative Bet: Fight to go the distance at 2.00.

Mario Bautista (2.45) v Patchy Mix (1.53) (Bantamweight)

All eyes will be on Mix (20-1) as he makes his UFC debut.

Tenth-ranked Bautista (15-2) was originally set to face Marlon Vera, but with the former title challenger forced to withdraw due to injury, Mix gets an opportunity to jump straight into the bantamweight elite on the pay-per-view stage.

A phenomenal grappler, Mix has no less than 13 wins by submission and made another successful defence of his Bellator 135-pound title against Magomed Magomedov last time out to stretch his win streak to seven.

Vicente Luque (3.00) v Kevin Holland (1.36) (Welterweight)

The main card opener is a fun fight between two fan-friendly finishers.

Both men are complete competitors out for blood, with Luque (23-10-1) having 20 stoppage wins (11 knockouts and nine submissions) and Holland (27-13) 22 (14 knockouts and eight submissions).

They’ve both battled in recent times, Luque going 3-3 in his last six fights and Holland 2-4. However, both were victorious last time out, Luque earning a technical submission win over Themba Gorimbo and Holland outworking Gunner Nelson.

Both men are super dangerous, but there’s a significant difference in their durability at this stage, with Luque’s last two losses coming by knockout. Tough as nails for most of his career, “The Silent Assassin” can no longer take a punch like he used to.