WAFCON 2024: Quarter-Finals Preview

Friday sees one of the tournament favourites, Nigeria, face off against COSAFA representative Zambia in the afternoon. Later in the evening, tournament hosts Morocco take on Mali in a match they are strongly favoured to win. On Saturday, Algeria and Ghana kick off the day’s proceedings, before our own Banyana Banyana take on Senegal in the fourth quarter-final late on. This is a preview of the weekend action.

QF1: Nigeria v Zambia

Following a solid group-stage display in which they won their group without conceding a goal, Nigeria face Zambia in the 1st quarter-final on Friday night. The Super Falcons are the highest-ranked team on the continent (36th in the world), and always carry expectations of victory given their history. They cruised through their group and should have had maximum points, but Zambia (ranked 5th in Africa) will provide a sterner test. Based on rankings, this is the most difficult quarter-final, and the bookmakers are having a hard time splitting the teams. Nigeria’s 2.5/1 return implies a 40% win probability, while Zambia are just behind on 36%.

Team to Win: Nigeria

Value Bet: Under 2.5 Goals

QF2: Morocco v Mali

Hosts Morocco will be aiming to reach only their second ever semi-finals (after 2022) when they play Mali later on Saturday. The teams have never met before at WAFCON, but their last head-to-head match was a friendly late last year, which Morocco won 1-0. Bookies are more confident of a Morocco win here, with a 71% win probability implied by the odds at the time of writing. Mali, with (18% implied probability), only made this round under a superior 3rd-place finish. But as the 4-0 defeat to Banyana Banyana showed, this may be a bridge too far for them.

Team to Win: Mali

Value Bet: Morocco to Score Over 2.5 Goals

QF4: Algeria v Ghana

This is the only quarter-final that features first-time quarter-finalists, despite this being only the second tournament with a quarter-final round. Yet, it’s the first time that Algeria are in the knockouts, and the first time since 2016 that Ghana find themselves here. Overall, it’s the sixth time Ghana has been in the knockouts, indicating some level of experience for the Black Queens. They were comfortable 4-1 winners over Tanzania in their final group game, and will be confident after that result. History favours them in this fixture, with two wins to one in previous WAFCON meetings, and so do the bet.co.za win probabilities (36% – 31%), but only just.

Team to Win: Ghana

Value Bet: Both Teams to Score

QF3: South Africa v Senegal

After a slow-ish start, Banyana seem to have found some goalscoring form in their last game, netting four with no reply against Mali on Matchday 3. The defending champions (64% win probability) are strongly favoured to progress in this one, with Senegal (15%) needing somewhat of a miracle to reach their first-ever semi-finals. The Lionesses of Teranga advanced to this stage as the worst-placed team, but proved formidable in front of goal. Four goals in their first group game were followed by another two against Mali, despite a 3-2 defeat. They have shown that they are capable of springing a surprise.

Team to Win: Banyana

Value Bet: Banyana to Score Over 2.5 Goals