STATS: Analysing PSL Trends

The PSL top-flight league is on a two-week break, in which the Nedbank Cup has taken centre stage. Just before this break, the league crossed the halfway stage as the 120th game was played. As at the time of writing, we are up to 129 games, with 111 games remaining.  However, the numbers at the halfway stage show that the goals are getting scarcer and scarcer. We dug through the numbers to understand this worrying trend.

229 – goals scored at the 120 game mark, the lowest total ever at the halfway stage of a season

1.92 – goals per game currently, the lowest goals per game ratio for any season in PSL history

60% – penalty conversion ratio, the lowest since we have full data available (2020+)

The good: a title race

It has been a while since the PSL was so closely fought at the halfway stage. While Sundowns and Pirates have set the pace at the top, Kaizer Chiefs have remained within touching distance. The Top 4 teams are separated by just five points, with the next four teams also just six points apart. The next batch of seven teams are also within five points of each other – a run of three wins in a row can separate any team from the rest.

The Expected Points table below paints a similar picture to the actual points table. Chiefs, Sundowns, and Pirates are still in the Top 3, albeit in different orderings. Surprisingly, Durban City makes the Top 4 (they are 6th on the actual table).

The shake up: Expected Goals

Things get a bit more interesting when we look at the Expected Goal Difference (xGD) table. The formula for Expected Goal Difference is Expected Goals minus Expected Goals against.

• xGD = xG – XGA

Pust simply it ranks teams on their season totals for quality of chances they have created, offset against the quality of chances they concede. Not only is xGD a better predictor of the future, it also a better descriptor of the present. With the xGD table, we can clearly see the gap between the top three sides and the rest of the league.

Yes, Durban City are still 4th on this table, but they are well below the third-best team in Sundowns. The rest of the division is even lower.

The ugly: A defensive season

If the PSL Player of the Year nominees were announced today, Brandon Petersen and Sipho Chaine would not be surprise nominees. They are breaking clean sheet records for fun (this is the first time in PSL history two goalkeepers have 11 clean sheets at the halfway stage). The top teams have built their dominance on defensive solidity. They are not excellent at attacking, but rather are good at defending. One can argue that they play not to lose, and that trend seeps into the lower echelons.

The “big games” between the Top3 have been classic examples of these tight margin games. Sundowns v Pirates, for example, saw a shot every six minutes. That game, and the Chiefs v Sundowns game have already ended in draws. They were not exactly thrillers, with the two matches averaging three shots on target per team, and a combined 2.58xG. Are these the symptoms of a cagey nature of the season?