Preview: Bafana host Nigeria on verge of World Cup qualification

When Bafana Bafana take on Nigeria on Tuesday evening, they will potentially be one result away from qualifying for the 2026 World Cup.

A win would place them on 19 points from eight games in a 6-team group, with Benin (their nearest challengers) only playing later in the evening at home to Lesotho. Should Benin fail to win that game, it is possible Bafana may have opened up an insurmountable lead at the top of the table. We preview this coming massive home game against Nigeria using numbers.

100% – Bafana Bafana have won every home World Cup qualifier under Hugo Broos (P6 W6 across qualifying rounds for the 2022 & 2026 World Cups).

Last game

Bafana qualified for the World Cup as hosts in 2010, but they did not have to “compete” to qualify. In beating Lesotho comfortably in their last game played on Friday, they set the nation up for a historic first qualifying appearance at the World Cup since 2002, more than two decades ago. Goals from Mohau Nkota, Lyle Foster and Oswin Appolis were enough to ward off the minimal threat posed by Lesotho on the day. Leading the possession with 68%, Bafana were equal in shot attempts with their opponents (8-8), but outnumbered them for big chances created (2-0), which proved to be the key difference. Efficiency in both boxes won the evening.

3 – This is the first time Bafana have kept three consecutive clean sheets in World Cup qualifiers under Hugo Broos.

Nigeria

That said, Tuesday’s game against Nigeria will be a different proposition. The fixture has become a showpiece event on the African football calendar, with some tense history between the sides. The teams have met eight times in the last 12 years, with both teams winning one game apiece (excluding penalty shootouts), while the other six games have ended in a draw. In the first leg played in June last year, Bafana took the lead through Themba Zwane in the first half, before Nigeria equalised in the second, adding to the drawn games. Statistically, it was not a good look for Bafana, with the hosts taking 15 shots – the only time Bafana have conceded more than 10 shots in this qualifying campaign. Yet, leaving Uyo (arguably the toughest fixture in the group) with a point was the result that brought added to belief that this World Cup could be Bafana’s turn.

43% – The first game against Nigeria is the only game where Bafana had less ball possession than the opponents.

A dilemna

On the field, results look good for Bafana Bafana, but there is a shroud of uncertainty off the field. Teboho Mokoena picked up two yellow cards in qualifiers (vs Benin in 2023 & Zimbabwe in 2024). Based on the rules, the two cards should have made him ineligible for Bafana’s next game (a 2-0 Lesotho), but he started the match. A three point deduction has been mentioned in the press as a result, but given that Lesotho were late to file their complaint and did not play the game under protest, Bafana could still get away without a points deduction. It would be a sour note to an otherwise promising campaign.

7 – Bafana have received just 7 yellow cards in 7 qualifying games, the fewest of all teams in Group C.