By The Numbers: Kaizer Chiefs’ shot volumes mask conversion woes

Eight games into the 2025/26 PSL season, Chiefs are heading towards replicating their attacking woes from last season. The data paints a picture of a dominant side in terms of build-up and defensive solidity, yet a deeply frustrating one in the final third. With 127 shots taken against just 64 conceded, Amakhosi are showing a clear intent and control in their matches, averaging an impressive 12.7 shots per game compared to facing 8.1. This defensive effort places them 2nd lowest in the league for shots conceded.

127 – Kaizer Chiefs have taken more shots than any other team in the league.

Opportunities

This positive shot differential is exactly what Chiefs fans have craved, suggesting the team is creating ample opportunities. Their total Expected Goals (xG) further supports this offensive output. At 11.86 xG after eight games, they sit 3rd in the league for highest xG, indicating the quality of chances they are generating is high. However, the alarming disconnect lies in the actual outcome: only 8 goals scored, against 5 conceded, has kept their total points tally conservative. The biggest Achilles heel is glaring: shot conversion. At a poor 6.3%, Chiefs are languishing at 12th in the league for efficiency. They are simply not clinical enough to translate their dominance and quality chances into goals – an issue that was obviously clear last season.

Makabi Lilepo

The spotlight falls heavily on the forwards, particularly Makabi Lilepo. The star forward is Chiefs’ most frequent shooter, firing off 40 shots in 8 games, a staggering average of 5 per match. Not only is it more than he managed throughout last season, it is also twice as many as the next highest player in the league.This volume of shooting, however, is heavily disproportionate to his return. With an xG of 3.21, Lilepo has been presented with a high quality of chances, yet he has managed only 1 goal. The proportion of his shots is also an issue with him taking 50% of his shots as long-range efforts. His xG Differential of -2.21 highlights a stark underperformance, suggesting he is missing clear-cut opportunities that a player of his calibre should be burying.

Lilepo is not the only one contributing to the shot tally; Mduduzi Shabalala (13 shots in 6 games), Gastón Sirino (11 in 8), Wandile Duba (9 in 5), and Pule Mmodi (7 in 4) are all adding to the attack. However, the collective failure to convert means the team is not reaping the benefits of their tactical play and defensive strength.

The way forward

Chiefs have managed to secure 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss from their 8 games. While the defensive record (5 goals conceded) provides a solid foundation, the goal-scoring drought is a serious concern. The new co-coaches, following the departure of Nasreddine Nabi, will know that the blueprint for success is already there: maintain the defensive shape and chance creation, but crucially, fix the finishing. Until then, the story of their 2025/26 season remains one of huge potential overshadowed by frustrating inefficiency.

PSL Midweek matches:

• Kaizer Chiefs v Siwelele
• Pirates v Polokwane City
• Stellenbosch v Gokden Arrows