By The Numbers: Gavin Hunt departs Durban City

Earlier this week, Durban City formally announced the departure of veteran coach Gavin Hunt. In a short statement on their website, the club added that “the decision follows a review of the footballing strategy conducted by the Board of Directors, which concluded a new approach is required to achieve the Club’s objectives”. While rumours had been afloat for a few days, the confirmation of the news came as a shock to some sections of the general football fanbase and the medua. Whether it was the right decision or the wrong one was the leading question, given that only one game remains before the AFCON break? In this By The Numbers analysis, we look back at Gavin Hunt’s six-month tenure (most notably the four months of competitive football) since he joined the newly promoted club.

Why Durban City appointed Hunt for life in the top-flight

The appointment of Gavin Hunt in the off-season made perfect sense for Durban City. Newly promoted to the top division after a multi-year absence (as Maritzburg), City’s main priority for the season would have been clear: survival. They could not afford the yo-yo cycle of promotion-relegation in a strained economy, particularly the difficult football economy. In Gavin Hunt, City found a partner with the ideal profile for the task at hand – a coach whose CV boasts 1000+ games in the top-flight, and experience varied from winning league titles, lifting Cup finals and helping newly promoted sides adjust to the top-flight. If he could achieve just one of these milestones for Durban City, the marriage would be deemed a success.

16 games later, the two have parted ways.

The case for relieving Hunt?

City started life in the top-flight with back-to-back wins against TS Galaxy and Chippa United. This marked only the second time in PSL history a newly promoted team opened their campaign with six points from two games. Notably, the only prior instance was also under Gavin Hunt – 24 years ago, when he led Black Leopards to three straight wins immediately after promotion. It was a dream start, which soon slowed down. A run of three winless matches saw them slide down to 6th by the end of August, but even then their Expected Points and actual points totals were still within the Top 3-4 range.

The chief reasons to part ways with Hunt are difficult to decipher from the short statement put out, and there is a possibility off-field matters had more bearing on it. However, on the field, the last 10 league games in isolation provide some justification for action – the impression may have been that the team was heading backwards under Hunt. City failed to score in six of the 10 games, winning just three times (two of the wins were decided in the final 15 minutes of games). The trendline above shows a downward trajectory in the team’s results, but still within Top8 range and far from relegation danger. The case for letting him go may have been based on the direction of declining results coupled with an early Cup exit, rather than immediate danger based on league position.

The case for keeping Hunt?

As such, the case for keeping Hunt seems stronger. Historically, 30 points is enough to avoid relegation, while 40 points is the benchmark for a Top8 spot. With 19 points in 14 games, City were on the right path for a Top-8 berth. While the team’s attack was not then most dynamic (they scored more than once just three times all season), Hunt’s solid defensive foundations were the perfect foil for a first season in the top-flight. His team kept a clean sheet in every other game (7 in 14), and were on pace for 15 clean sheets at the same rate. They were 6th best on actual goals conceded and 6th best on Expected Goals conceded, suggesting the presence of a solid defensive structure.

Extrapolating their current Expected Points, City were on course for a 47-point total – in each of the last five seasons, this would have been enough for 4th place. Indeed, their 21.7 xPts total was the 4th highest in the division at the time of Hunt’s departure, behind only Orlando Pirates, Sundowns and Kaizer Chiefs. Off-field dynamics or differences in preferences for football styles may have driven the decision more than on-field data, which points to a strong tenure.