Big Game Preview: The 2025 Carling Cup Knockout Final

Orlando Pirates and Marumo Gallants square off in the final of the Carling Knockout Cup on Saturday evening (kickoff 1800hrs). Both teams are vying to secure the second knockout trophy of the season. The Buccaneers, who have already reached and won the MTN8 final earlier this year, are many people’s favourites. However, they will be cautious, coming up against an opponent that has already gotten the better of them once this season (2-1 in the league). While Marumo Gallants may not boast the same Cup history as their esteemed sparring partner, their big game record has been impressive under Alexandre Lafitte, setting the stage forna compelling showdown. We preview this weekend’s Carling Cup final.

Pirates’ favourites for yet another Cup

The Bucaneers’ journey to the final has been a mirror of their league form – a sequence of professional, narrow wins built on a solid defence. Two 1-0 wins are sandwiched by a 2-1 triumph over Magesi – a game in which Pirates’ clean sheet record was spoiled in the last kick of the game. Pirates have reached the final of every domestic competition this year, but have not been triumphant in all of them. They lost to Kaizer Chiefs in the Nedbank Cup final in May, before beating Stellenbosch in September’s MTN8 final.

Orlando Pirates’ journey to the final
Last 16	Orlando Pirates	1	0	Siwelele
Quarters	Orlando Pirates	2	1	Magesi
Semis	Richards Bay	0	1	Orlando Pirates

The Buccaneers’ Cup heritage is not in question – they have reached their 31st knockout final in the PSL era, a record surpassing any other club. A lot of that success has come in recent years, with Pirates reaching 10 domestic finals in the five years post-pandemic. Impressively, they have lost just one of the previous nine finals (the aforementioned 2025 Nedbank Cup). While this is only the second time Pirates reached three domestic finals in the same year (mirroring 2011), this is one Cup that has been elusive.

1 – Pirates have won just one League Cup in the PSL era (the 2011 Telkom Knockout).

Marumo’s big game experience could be crucial

Marumo Gallants’ path to the final has been defined by the calibre of their opponents, particularly how they have defied the odds in all games. The run includes eliminating South African champions Sundowns in the Last 16, they thrashed another CAF-level team Stellenbosch 4-0 in the quarter-finals.The shootout win over Arrows in the semis was less glamorous, but some pundits had Arrows as favourites then.

Marumo Gallants’ journey to the final
Last 16	Sundowns	0	0	Marumo Gallants
Quarters	Marumo Gallants	4	0	Stellenbosch
Semis	Golden Arrows	2	2	Marumo Gallants

1.6 – xG for Chiefs here, compared to 0.2 for Chippa

If this journey is not enough to show ther ability to rise to the occasion in “big” games, we can look back at some league results as well. Under Lafitte, Gallants are unbeaten in league matches against Orlando Pirates (won), Sundowns (drew) and Kaizer Chiefs (drew). Indeed, their league record in 2025 has seen them lose just once in six league matches against the “Big 3” (P6 W3 D2 L1). Of the three wins, two of them have come against this weekend’s opponent. Not only can they thrive when the lights are bright, they also have the blueprint to successfully nullify Saturday’s Cup opponent.

3 – No team has won more games against Sundowns, Chiefs & Pirates than Gallants in 2025 (3)

Head-to-head

The recent head-to-head record makes this one fascinating. Marumo holds a minor psychological edge, having already beaten Pirates this season in the league. However, they were eliminated by the same side in the Nedbank Cup semi-finals in April. Interestingly, current Pirates coach Abdeslam Ouaddou was Marumo coach when Pirates knocked them out. A year ago, Pirates thrashed Marumo 8-1 in the league – a memory that may motivate the Bucaneers and frighten Marumo in equal measure. Yet, both teams were under different leadership back then, and the current coaches will be aiming to create their own piece of history. The winner on Saturday will become the first non-South African coach to lift the Carling Knockout (South Africans Steve Barker & Clinton Larsen won before).

2018 – The last non-South African coach to lift the overall League Cup was Wedson Nyirenda (Baroka/Zambia) in 2018.

Our team to win the Cup: Orlando Pirates

Our other value bet: Both teams to score