Betting Notebook_ AFCON Quarter-Finals

The AFCON quarter finals take place this weekend with four heavyweight fixtures lined up for Friday and Saturday. By many measures, the eight remaining teams represent the elite of African football. For the first time in 30 years, all eight quarterfinalists are among the Top 10 ranked African teams. The last eight also includes all top-seeded teams when the draw was made and the six group winners from the Group stages. Indeed, these teams have won the trophy 22 times and played 732 matches combined in the tournament. Let’s preview this gigantic weekend.

Mali v Senegal

Four consecutive draws have somehow propelled Mali to the quarterfinal stage, but they will need to show a bit more adventure to overcome one of the pre-tournament favourites in Senegal. Mali had just 28% possession against Tunisia in their last match, completing a mere 140 passes, while their 96th minute penalty was their only shot on target. Should they set up in a similar way against Senegal, a nation that has dominated them over the years they may end up on the losing side again here. The simulations heavily favour Senegal here, giving the Lions of Teranga a 51% chance of victory.

1997 – Senegal are unbeaten against Mali in 13 games (W6 D7 since 1997).

Team to progress: Senegal

Value bet: Under 2.5 goals

Goalscorer bet: Sadio Mane

Cameroon v Morocco

After eliminating South Africa in the previous round, Cameroon will meet hosts Morocco in the second quarterfinal on Friday night. Home advantage could play a major role at the Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah. However, Cameroon have never lost a game at AFCON against Morocco, winning twice and drawing once in their previous three AFCON meetings. They beat Bafana with just 34% possession, their lowest possession figure since 2010, and could stick to that formula given their opponents’ style of play. Morocco have completed more passes than any other team (2184), and you can expect them to hoard possession against here, waiting to create opportunities for their dangermen.

4 – Real Madrid’s Brahim Diaz has scored four goals so far, which is already a Moroccan record for a single AFCON.

Team to progress: Morocco

Value bet: Both teams to score

Goalscorer bet: Brahim Diaz

Algeria v Nigeria

West Africa & North Africa clash again when 2019 champions Algeria take on the losing finalists from 2023, Nigeria. The Algerians were not that convincing in the Last 16, needing a 119th minute goal to go past DRC. They come up against arguably the best attacking team in the tournament so far. Nigeria have created more big chances than any team (19) and generated the highest Expected Goals tally (xG – 9.40). Unsurprisingly, they are the tournament’s top scorers, averaging three goals per game. Yet,on the other hand, Algeria have a strong defence – they have allowed the least xG of all teams (2.0) and conceded one goal in four games. This could be an intriguing clash of styles to watch out for.

12 – Nigeria are into the Last 8 of AFCON for the 12th time, more than any other team.

Team to progress: Nigeria

Value bet: Both teams to score

Goalscorer bet: Victor Osimhen

Ivory Coast v Egypt

Egypt are chasing a record-extending eighth AFCON title, but have to navigate a tricky tie against Ivory Coast on their way there. They needed a hard-fought late win over Benin to reach this stage, despite going into that game as overwhelming favourites. The Pharaohs will be hoping for a less complicated path against Ivory Coast, but this is easier said than done. With the likes of Amad Diallo in flying form, Egypt will be tested in a way they haven’t experienced at AFCON so far. The Ivorians were dominant in their Last 16 tie, cruising past Burkina Faso 3-0. But history is against them here.

12 – This will be the 12th match between the two teams at the AFCON finals, making it the most played fixture in the history of the tournament (Egypt 7 wins, D3, Ivory Coast 1 win).

Team to progress: Egypt

Value bet: Over 2.5 goals

Goalscorer bet: Amad Diallo