Betting Notebook: Soweto Derby weekend

Anyone with a vague interest in local sport will be aware of how gigantic this weekend is. The 184th Soweto derby in the league sees Kaizer Chuiefs and Orlando Pirates lockhorns on Saturday afternoon. While that is the highlight of the weekend, the big bonus is that we have a full schedule of eight matches from Friday to Sunday, including the Top 4 teams facing off against each other. To help bring context to this mega weekend, we have selected three games to focus on with statistical previews.

Friday: Stellenbosch (11th) v AmaZulu (5th)

After narrowly losing out to Sundowns during the week, AmaZulu face another tough examination when they travel to Cape Town to face Stellenbosch. Stellies may have won ust one home game since domestic football resumed in January, but this remains a fixture AmaZulu have found challenging over the years. Since 2021, they have travelled five times to play Stellies, and have not tasted victory in that time. Three defeats and two draws are average results for a club with such lofty ambitions – an ordinariness that Arthur Zwane will be keen to address. The odds slightly favor Stellies (46% implied probability of victory vs 29% for the visitors), but Gavin Hunt and his charges must be wary of Usuthu’s away form.

4 – AmaZulu have won each of their last four away games in all competitions. Only once before have they won more away games in a row (a run of 5 ending May 2021 under Benni McCarthy)

You can bet on a draw or AmaZulu win

You can bet on Under 2.5 goals

Saturday: Kaizer Chiefs (4th) v Orlando Pirates (2nd)

Aside from all the pomp and show surrounding the big game, there is a game of football to be played over 90 minutes. Both teams have stuttered lately, and come into this on the back of Cup eliminations and losing their last league games. Psychologically, it’s a huge blow coming into a game of this size with the added pressure of needing to avert a crisis. Yet, that applies to both teams, and form usually matters for little in this one. Chiefs’ Cup victory in the Nedbank final will still be a pain for many Pirates players who were part of that. But on paper, Pirates (assigned an implied 42% chance of victory compared to 30% for their hosts) have the edge. A place at the top of the table is the additional prize for a win here.

4 – Pirates have won each of the last four league derbies, their best run in this fixture.

You can bet on Pirates win or Draw

You can bet on Both Teams to Score

Sundowns (1st) v Sekhukhune (3rd)

By the time Sundowns kick off against Sekhukhune, they will either be under pressure to retake their position at the top of the table or motivated to open their lead at the top. Downs returned to top spot with a midweek win over AmaZulu, somewhat repairing the damage caused by the Nedbank Cup exit a few days earlier. That said, they fired 29 shots at AmaZulu’s goal (a five-year high in the PSL), only scoring with the 28th, as they were frustrated by the low block. It’s only a month ago that these teams met in the reverse fixture, with the Brazilians needing two late goals to get a similar win. We anticipate yet another stifling of space, but Downs boasts the know-how from recent experiences.

0 – Sekhukhune are winless in all 10 games played against Sundowns (P10 W0 D1 L9)

You can bet on Sundowns winning

You can bet on Under 2.5 Goals