Betting Notebook: PSL Matchday 24

In the 30-game PSL era, Matchday 24 marks the beginning of the fourth quarter of the season. The run-in begins with title challengers Orlando Pirates travelling to face Richards Bay on Friday night, with seven games spread out across the entire weekend. On Saturday, Golden Arrows and Durban City kick things off with a KZN derby. And then Kaizer Chiefs host TS Galaxy in Sunday’s afternoon game. Our Betting Notebook provides data-driven insights for the weekend’s key games.

Friday: Richards Bay (11th) v Orlando Pirates (2nd)

With Pirates scoring 11 goals in their last two games, it is only logical for us to focus our attention on their attack, which has clicked at the perfect time. It has taken them a while to get here, with numerous games leaving Pirates fans with the feeling of “what if”. Pirates have missed the most big chances in the league (56), and that profligacy threatened to derail a promising campaign. Now, balance is being restored. Ouaddou’s side have exceeded their goal total from last season, in five fewer games. At 1.4/1, the odds are heavily in their favour, implying a 12% chance for a Richards Bay win. The hosts will have to be at their best defensively to stop a relentless attack, and find a way to breach the league’s best defence. But, history is not on their side.

1 – Pirates have lost just one of the 10 games they have played against Richards Bay (W6 D3 L1 in all competitions) .

You can bet on a Pirates win

You can bet on Richards Bay scoring less than 1.5 goals

Saturday: Golden Arrows (8th) v Durban City (6th)

Both teams lost in their last games, but Arrows were brutally outclassed against Orlando Pirates, conceding 19 shots in the first half alone (a new 5-year PSL record). Manqoba Mngqithi may want to paint this as a once-off result, but it is the kind of result that can have a damaging effect on a team’s psyche. Two years ago, Arrows lost 7-1 to the same Pirates. That 7-1 defeat was followed by a six-game winless run that effectively ended their season. They went on to miss out on the Top 8 by a single point, and it has now been five seasons since they ended a campaign as a top–half team. In Durban City, they face the Nedbank Cup finalists, but more importantly a team that eliminated Arrows on the way to the final last month. Bookies are slightly in favour of City (2.3/1), and they may have a point.

1 – Arrows have won just one of their last eight matches against fellow-KZN sides, drawing four and losing the other three.

You can bet on a draw or Durban City win

You can bet on Under 2.5 goals

Sunday: Kaizer Chiefs (3rd) v TS Galaxy (12th)

Slowly and steadily, the narrative is starting to shift to a more positive tone around Kaizer Chiefs. After a difficult month that saw them lose five of their six games, they have bounced back convincingly. It is probably too late for a title push, but three wins in a row have at least restored some conviction in their project and Top 3 ambitions. Their opponents, meanwhile, reached the Nedbank Cup final recently. Yet, it seems that “success” may have come at the expense of their league form. Galaxy are winless in eight league games, their joint-worst run under Adnan Beganovic. Put in another way, they have picked up just one point from the last 24 available. That contrasting form makes Chiefs favourites to win here, at 1.6/1, but a draw could provide good value.

9 – Nine of the 11 meetings between these teams have ended in a draw, making it Galaxy’s most drawn fixture since their promotion.