Betting Notebook: AFCON semi-finals

Four of the best African football nations clash in Morocco, as the Africa Cup of Nations nears its conclusion with a blockbuster semi-final stage. Senegal and Egypt face off in the first semi-final, with former Liverpool teammates Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah reuniting as opposing captains on the national stage. Later in the evening, hosts Morocco and high-flying Nigeria battle for the other place in Sunday’s final. While many narratives have arisen, the most obvious is the geographical split in the fixtures – both semis are North Africa vs West Africa affairs. Will we see a North African final, a West African final, or will the North-West battle go all the way to the final? Our Betting Notebook brings you the statistical context ahead of the big games.

Senegal v Egypt

The first semi-final will be a repeat of the 2021 final, where Senegal triumphed via penalties after a 0-0 draw. Egypt will be looking to avenge that painful defeat on their way to a record extending eighth title.

If anything, that closely fought game is emblematic of the tight margins when these two teams collide. In five previous AFCON meetings, the teams have two wins each and one draw – none have a clear upper hand. Having said that, Senegal are favourites here both according to the odds and Opta’s simulations. Both teams have been constant features at this stage in the last few editions. This is Senegal’s third semifinal in the last four AFCONs and they progressed on the first two occasions. Meanwhile, should Egypt reach the final, it will be their third in five editions and first since 2021. Egypt, with a mostly local-based squad who were not really convincing against Ivory Coast last time out, may find the going tough against Senegal’s European superstars.

16 – Senegal are unbeaten in 16 matches at AFCON (P16 W11 D5, since losing in the 2019 final to Algeria)

Team to progress: Senegal

Value bet: Over 2.5 goals

Anytime Goalscorer bet: Sadio Mane

Morocco v Nigeria

What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? The Morocco and Nigeria clash will be a meeting of the tournament’s best attacking team and the best defensive team. Nigeria have already scored 14 goals in their 5 games at the tournament so far. Not only is that the highest tally the Super Eagles have ever scored at one AFCON, it is also the best goals per game ratio (2.8) for any team to play more than 3 matches in a single edition. Opposing them are Morocco, who boast the best records for fewest goals conceded (1), shots on target faced (4) and additionally have the most clean sheets (4). Victor Osimhen and Ademola Lookman have been the shining stars in the Nigerian attack, but against the likes of PSG’s Achraf Hakimi and Manchester United’s Noussair Mazraoui, they will be facing their toughest test so far. Morocco are favourites to win this one based on bookmakers, but it will be tight.

Team to progress: Morocco

Value bet: Both teams to score

Goalscorer bet: Victor Osimhen