Analysis: Orlando Pirates’ Finishing Problems

Over the course of the 2025/26 PSL season, Orlando Pirates are one of the league’s most intriguing statistical puzzles. Under Abdeslam Ouaddou, the Buccaneers are playing exciting football, dominating space and creating a high volume of chances and shots in each game. As much as this is good news, the title race with Sundowns is reaching boiling point. Over the last few weeks, a familiar aspect continually haunts them: the inability to convert chances into goals. We break down Pirates’ Achilles heel.

The Main Issue: Big Chance Conversion

As of mid-March 2026, Pirates have netted 34 goals in 21 matches and conceded only nine. They may not be the top scorers in the division (that honour belongs to Sundowns), but Pirates are the only team to have taken more than 300 shots this season. Historically, they have also never been a team to score more than 46 goals over a 30-game league campaign (they have done this once in 2004/05). Their current average of 1.62 goals per game should bring them close to that tally, yielding about 50 goals for the season. While this average seems healthy on paper, the underlying metrics reveal a different reality.

• Expected Goals (xG) Underperformance: Pirates’ projected xG for the season sits near 37, meaning they should have three more goals than they have actually scored.
• Shooting locations: Of the 338 shots Pirates have taken, 163 have come from outside the box. Last season, they found a lot of luck with long-range goals, scoring more than any other team. This season, long-range shots are not converting into goals as often.
• Big chance conversion: The more worrying aspect has been that the team has had 73 big chances, but failed to convert 74% of them.

Big chance: A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, usually in a one-on-one scenario or from very close range when the ball has a clear path to goal and there is low to moderate pressure on the shooter. Penalties are always considered big chances.

Last season, Pirates missed 50 big chances in a full 28-game season. This term, they have already missed 55 big chances from 21 games. At this rate, they are on course to miss 80 big chances in the full season. While other teams struggle to create good enough chances, Pirates’ main issue is converting the chances they create. Pirates’ 26% big chance conversion rate is the third-lowest in the division. For a title contender, that is simply not good enough, especially when their nearest rivals are converting at 42%.

The Individual Struggles

With the defence doing its job, the pressure has mounted on the frontmen. Following the departure of Tshegofatso Mabasa, who last year scored seven goals, the burden has fallen on a fairly young line-up in Evidence Makgopa (5 goals in 18 appearances), Yanela Mbuthuma (4 goals in 15 appearances) and Boitumelo Radiopane (0 goals in two appearances), with support also coming from the midfield. On the one hand, giving young players a chance is admirable. But inexperience can also cost a team. Chances have come from various individuals, yet the fact that an attacking midfielder, Patrick Maswanganyi leads the scoring charts with six goals highlights a worrying trend: the scorers are being outshone by the creators.

Out of Pirates’ hands

Sundowns retook top spot in the log table after putting three goals past Marumo Gallants on Tuesday evening. Unfortunately for Pirates, they do not play Sundowns again in the league this season, and therefore, the title is effectively out of their hands. They will have to keep up the pressure and hope Sundowns drop points along the way. But the only way to keep the pressure is to convert the good creative work that is being done.