AFCON 2025 Preview: Group E

We are two days away from the start of the 35th edition of the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON), which kicks off this coming weekend. The tournament, which will be hosted by Morocco, kicks off on Sunday 21 December 2025, when the hosts play Comoros at the Prince Moulay Abdellah Stadium in Rabat. The event will stretch over into 2026, with the final scheduled for 18 January at the same stadium. As we continue our statistical previews of the tournament, today we turn our attention to Group E, which contains Algeria, Burkina Faso, Equatorial Guinea and Sudan. Enjoy

Who will win Group E

Group favourites: Algeria

Algeria will be participating in their 21st AFCON, looking to shake off the embarrassment of back-to-back group exits in the last two editions, both while anchoring their group. The 2019 champions have not done a good job since winning the title in Egypt, with no wins in six matches played in the next two tournaments (D3 L3). Yet, a strong qualifying round (W5 D1 L0), playing in a neighbouring country and the sheer talent at their disposal are contributors to making them favourites to progress from this group. 95% of the time, they qualify from this group based on Opta simulations. The predicitions are comfortable in backing them to top the group as well, with Algeria given a 65% chance of finishing 1st.

Players to watch: Riyad Mahrez (Al-Ahli), Aissa Mandi (Lille), Ramy Bensebaini (Borussia Dortmund)

Group contenders: Burkina Faso

The Stallions of Burkina Faso will be making their 14th appearance at AFCON, with most of these coming in the last two decades. Since 2010, they have made it to the finals eight times, with the 2013 silver medal their best ever finish. Since then, they have taken the bronze medal (2017) and finished 4th (2021), underlining their ability to deliver on the big stage. Burkina Faso are second favourites to advance from Group C, based on this model. They are more likely to finish second in the group, with the prediction for third spot just below that (29.4% to 29.1%). The opening game against Equatorial Guinea will go a long way in determining how high they finish.

Players to watch: Bertrand Traoré (Sunderland), Dango Ouattara (Brentford), Edmond Tapsoba (Bayer Leverkusen)

Group Contenders: Equatorial Guinea

The Red Devils of Equatorial Guinea wil be at the finals for a third consecutive tournament, and fifth overall. That said, counting appearances alone does not capture their true profile. The Equato-Guineans have always made a mark in their four previous appearances, advancing past the group stages each time. This includes two quarter-final exits in 2012 & 2021. They are allocated a 55% chance of going past the groups once again, and will be eager to continue that record. With a 42% win rate at AFCON (the 7th best of all nations and better than Morocco, Algeria & Tunisia), they remain a side not to be taken lightly.

Players to watch: Emilio Nsure (Intercity), Basilio Ndong (Tirana FC), Iban Salvador (Wisla Plock)

Outsiders: Sudan

The outsiders in this group are Sudan, who are making a 10th appearance at AFCON. They will want to improve on their difficult run of winning just one of their last 10 games at the finals (D2 L7). At the last edition, they managed a single goal in the Groups (a penalty), but oddly did not finish bottom of that group. Opening the tournament against Algeria will be a severe early test for the Sudanese, but a good performance (irrespective of the result), could set them up well for the rest of the campaign. While they are fourth favourites in the group, the difference between them and the two contenders is not that big.

Players to watch: Mohamed Abdelrahman (Al-Hilal), Yaser Muzmel (Al-Hilal), Abuaagla Abdalla (Al Ahly Benghazi)