URC Predictions – Semi-finals

Perennial title favourites Leinster will cross swords with the defending champion Glasgow Warriors at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin, while the Bulls and Sharks will face off in an all-South African showdown at Loftus Versfeld in Pretoria.

Leinster v Glasgow Warriors

When: Saturday, 7 June – 15:45 SAST

It’s gut-check time for mighty Leinster. They’ve marched into the playoffs in each of the past three seasons only to trip up in the semi-finals time and time and time again. They’ve similarly choked in the Investec Champions Cup knockouts, so all the pressure is on them.

The Irish giants humiliated Glasgow 52-0 in the Investec Champions Cup quarter-finals and while they won the URC fixture between the teams as well, it was a different ball game, with Leo Cullen’s charges having to be satisfied with a 13-5 victory.

Add the fact that the top seeds looked sloppy against the Scarlets, who they were expected to thump yet only beat 33-21 last weekend, and they do appear a tad vulnerable.

Glasgow’s emphatic 36-18 win over the Stormers last Friday was a confidence-builder at the most crucial time. Going into the quarter-final clash on a three-match losing skid, the crushing of the Capetonians was just what the doctor ordered for the defending champions.

Franco Smith’s side looked super slick on attack, almost breaking the line at will and running in five tries, but they’ll receive no such open invitation from Leinster and their Jacques Nienaber-designed defence.

They’ll likely look to target Leinster’s lineout after having disrupted the Stormers so effectively in this set piece. On the flip side, they’ll have a target on their chests in the scrum, where they were dominated by the inaugural champions.

Leinster will be feeling the heat and the past three seasons have shown us it’s not a bad idea to wager a buck or two against them at this vital stage of the season, but I do see them being too strong for their Scottish visitors.

Prediction: Leinster by 12.
Suggested Bet: Glasgow Warriors +14 at 1.90.

Bulls v Sharks

When: Saturday, 7 June – 18:15 SAST

South African rugby fans are thrilled that a local team will be in the final for a fourth consecutive year, but who will it be?

Both teams had to overcome adversity last weekend, the Bulls battling back from a 21-8 deficit to triumph 42-33 over Edinburgh and the Sharks edging Munster in a historic penalty shootout.

Both teams have momentum, with the Herd entering the mouth-watering clash on a seven-match winning streak and the Sharks having won five on the trot. However, the Bulls have a clear advantage when it comes to cohesion. They operate like a well-oiled machine, whereas the Durbanites remain disjointed.

That said, the dramatic way John Plumtree’s men won last weekend could be the spark that ignites their fire. That, and the fact that they’re breaking new ground with a first URC semi-final appearance. Consider, also, that they did the double over the Bulls in the league phase, backing up a 20-17 home win with a 29-19 success at Loftus.

Both teams will be looking to start strong. The Bulls stumbled out of the gate against Edinburgh, Sebastian de Klerk’s yellow card gifting the Scots a 14-3 lead in as many minutes, while the Sharks failed to get out of the blocks and trailed Munster 7-0 at halftime.

In addition to the rhythm of the Bulls and the blues of the Sharks in general play, both teams have strong set pieces, and the battle at scrum time – particularly Wilco Louw going up against fellow Springbok brute Ox Nche – will be worth the price of admission alone.

The one area where the Sharks have the edge, and this was highlighted last weekend, is goal-kicking. If they can slow things down and force a set piece to set piece game, they could maximise this advantage. Jake White’s men, on the other hand, will look to play a fast-paced game and stretch the Sharks.

The Springbok-laden visitors have the power to match the hosts’ physicality, but the 100-minute war against Munster would’ve taken a lot out of them. The Bulls not only have superior synergy but should also have more left in the tank, which should take them to their second successive final.

Prediction: Bulls by 5.
Suggested Bet: Sharks +7 at 1.90.