EPCR Challenge Cup Predictions – Semi-finals

Edinburgh will want to make home-ground advantage count when they welcome Bath to the Hive on Saturday, as will Lyon when they play host to Racing 92 at Matmut Stadium on Sunday.

Edinburgh v Bath

Saturday, 3 May – 16:00 SAST

South African coaches will go head-to-head in the first semi-final with Edinburgh’s Sean Everitt and Bath’s Johann van Graan aiming to outdo one another.

Looking back to the quarter-finals, Edinburgh beat the Bulls 34-28 in a game of two halves. The Scottish side dominated the opening half, heading into the break with a commanding 31-7 lead. But the momentum quickly shifted after the restart, as the Bulls crossed twice in the space of 10 minutes, reigniting their hopes and flipping the game’s dynamic.

Sustained pressure from the visitors saw two more tries, cutting Edinburgh’s lead to just six points with four minutes remaining. But the home side held their nerve in a tense finale, with Pierre Schoeman securing a crucial penalty in the dying seconds to seal the win.

As for Bath, they made a big statement with a 61-26 win over Gloucester. The hosts led after a frantic first half in which they scored five tries to three. In the second half, Bath went up another gear to overpower their West Country rivals, limiting them to a single try while Bath racked up another four.

Edinburgh have since the quarters, though, lost 19-18 to the Sharks at home and drew 25-all with lowly Zebre last weekend in the United Rugby Championship, where they’re 10th. Bath, meanwhile, are first in the Premiership and on a nine-match winning streak.

Coming off a 55-19 victory over the Newcastle Falcons, they have the balanced squad, explosiveness and momentum to edge Edinburgh in what should be an entertaining encounter.

Prediction: Bath by 6.

Lyon v Racing 92

Sunday, 4 May – 13:30 SAST

French rivals face off in the second semi-final.

Lyon have a second Challenge Cup title in their sights after pipping the Ospreys 20-18 in the quarter-finals. With just two points separating the teams and nine minutes remaining, the tension was high. Heartbreakingly for the Ospreys, Dan Edwards’ conversion attempt of George McGuigan’s try – which would have tied the scores and pushed the game into extra time – struck the post, allowing the French side to edge through.

Meanwhile, after having gone down to 14 men after just 12 minutes, Racing 92 came from 21-5 down to edge past Connacht 43-40 away from home. Four tries apiece in the first half meant Connacht took a slender four-point advantage into the break, but Owen Farrell came on after 47 minutes and had an immediate impact.

Just a minute after taking to the pitch, he took the French upfield, which resulted in a Nolann Le Garrec try and conversion, before slotting a drop goal to put Racing 92 37-28 up. Two more penalties from Le Garrec to add to his two tries were enough to see Racing 92 over the line and into the semi-finals, despite two late tries from the hosts to test the nerves.

In the TOP 14, Lyon are eighth and Racing 92 10th. Lyon had a three-match winning streak snapped by a 39-31 away loss to Clermont last weekend, while Racing 92 romped to a 49-24 win over Stade Francais to bounce back from a 28-24 loss to Perpignan the previous week.

While these two teams played to a 25-all draw in December, Lyon have won the last three meetings at home and should keep that streak going to progress to the final.

Prediction: Lyon by 3.