United Rugby Championship Predictions – Round 4

The Bulls and Stormers, meanwhile, will continue their overseas excursions. The men from Pretoria are the only South African side in action on Friday evening; they have a date with Connacht in Galway.

On Saturday, the Lions host the Scarlets at Ellis Park, the Sharks welcome Ulster to Kings Park, and the high-flying Stormers face Zebre in Parma.

Dragons v Cardiff

Friday, 17 October – 20:45

As much as I’d like to be respectful to the Dragons, there’s a reason why they’re on a 19-match winless streak and those were all apparent in their 49-0 drubbing by the Glasgow Warriors last weekend.

Meanwhile, Cardiff are coming off a 14-8 win over Connacht and also cruised to a 33-20 victory over the Lions in Round One. Add the fact that they haven’t lost to the Dragons since 2015 and there’s only one winner here.

Prediction: Cardiff by 14.
Suggested Bet: Cardiff -6 at 1.90.

Edinburgh v Benetton

Friday, 17 October – 20:45

After coming up agonisingly short on the road against Zebre (31-28) and Munster (20-19) last weekend, Edinburgh will be desperate to get over the line in their first home fixture. They were much improved against the Irishmen, so they’ll feel they’re heading in the right direction.

Benetton have momentum on their side after following up their 16-14 win over the Glasgow Warriors with a 41-15 rout of the Lions last weekend. The Italians, who averaged 22 points a game last season, loved the time on the ball the Lions gave them and ran rampant, but they’ll know it’ll be far tougher in the Scottish capital.

The safe bet is to side with Edinburgh, but I believe Benetton have the strength and slickness to cause an upset.

Prediction: Benetton by 1.
Suggested Bet: Benetton at 4.00

Connacht v Bulls

Friday, 17 October – 20:45

The Bulls will be determined to get back to winning ways after their nightmare stop in Belfast last weekend. The return of a couple of Rugby Championship-winning Springboks, with Handre Pollard chief among them, was meant to elevate the three-time finalists to another level, but instead resulted in a 28-7 loss to a fired-up Ulster side.

Johan Ackermann’s team were extremely disjointed and simply couldn’t get out of first gear. With Pollard having returned to South Africa to be with his wife for the birth of their second child and set to miss the remainder of the tour, Keagan Johannes will start at flyhalf. However, this game will be won and lost upfront.

Connacht won their only home game of the season so far 26-15 against Benetton, before losing 14-8 to Cardiff last weekend. The Bulls prevailed 28-14 in the previous meeting between the two teams in Galway, and are up 3-1 in the rivalry.

They received a dressing down from club president Willem Strauss, who called last weekend’s showing “arguably our worst performance since joining the URC,” and the players will use that as fuel to bounce back.

Prediction: Bulls by 3.
Suggested Bet: Bulls -1 at 1.90.

Lions v Scarlets

Saturday, 18 October – 13:45

Usually one of the better South African touring teams, the Lions endured a dreadful three-week overseas odyssey. It’s not just that they lost all three of their assignments, it’s also the lacklustre performances that were so disappointing.

Ivan van Rooyen has long operated as coach on borrowed time and the calls for him to finally get the axe are growing louder by the week. I’m among those who believe “Cash” should’ve been long gone by now, but to be fair, the players were largely at fault in last weekend’s 41-15 battering by Benetton.

The amount of elementary mistakes they made in the attacking 22 was staggering, and their defence was uninspired and full of holes, with them leaking three tries in the opening quarter alone. Fortunately for them, they’ve been given a bit of a gimme in their first home game.

The Scarlets are also winless and produced one of the worst performances I’ve ever seen from a professional rugby side against the Stormers last weekend. Nothing more than antagonizers, they conceded 15 penalties in the first half alone and ultimately two yellow cards in their 34-0 humiliation.

A bonus point win is non-negotiable for the Lions, and they should be good for it on the Highveld.

Prediction: Lions by 17.

Suggested Bet: Lions -11 at 1.90.

Sharks v Ulster

Saturday, 18 October – 16:00

The Sharks’ European sojourn wasn’t much better than the Lions’, as they too went winless, but they did show some fight and managed a draw. They were always going to struggle against a bolstered Leinster side in Dublin last weekend and went down 31-5.

Ulster aren’t Leinster, but they’re still a quality side as they showed in their 21-point win over the fancied Bulls last weekend. They made it clear from the jump that they were ready for the physical battle, and overpowered the Pretoria side in all departments.

The manner of their win, which followed a 42-21 triumph over the Dragons in their only other game, will give them confidence that they can defeat the Sharks in Durban, as will the memories of their 31-24 victory at Kings Park in 2023.

However, with the Sharks welcoming back more of their Springbok big hitters, they should get their campaign on track.

Prediction: Sharks by 7.

Suggested Bet: Ulster +10 at 1.90.

Leinster v Munster

Saturday, 18 October – 18:15

The big Irish derby in Dublin is the game of the weekend.

Leinster, bolstered by some of their British & Irish Lions stars, set the record straight with their resounding win over the Sharks last weekend and should be even stronger on Saturday. Their dominant display against the Durbanites was a reminder of how strong and slick they are, and I expect them to step up another gear against their arch-rivals.

Munster survived a massive scare to edge Edinburgh 20-19 last weekend. They’ve done well to be unbeaten after three games, as they appeared undercooked against both Edinburgh and Cardiff, who they’d pipped 23-20 after their 34-21 opening round win over the hapless Scarlets.

If Munster were firing on all cylinders, they might’ve been worth backing, but as things are, Leinster should make it five in a row in this rivalry.

Prediction: Leinster by 12.
Suggested Bet: Munster +14 at 1.90.

Zebre v Stormers

Saturday, 18 October – 20:45

The Stormers will be out to consolidate their place at the top of the log in Parma. Guilty of being slow starters in the past, the Capetonians have flipped the script in some style this season, collecting 14 out of a possible 15 log points from their three wins.

On top of that, their 34-0 whitewash of the Scarlets last weekend was their second clean sheet of the campaign, with them having also blanked Leinster 35-0 in the opening round. It was complete domination from John Dobson’s men from the kick-off in Llanelli, and the fact that they were still some way off their best is ominous for the rest of the teams.

After narrow wins over Edinburgh (31-28) and the Lions (22-20) at home, Zebre were brought back down to earth in Wales last weekend, failing to fire a shot in their 24-0 loss to the Ospreys. The Stormers are 4-0 against the Italian side, which includes 37-20 and 36-5 away wins, and should continue on that trajectory.

Prediction: Stormers by 10.
Suggested Bet: Zebre +12 at 1.90.

Ospreys v Glasgow Warriors

Saturday, 18 October – 20:45

In an extreme rarity, two teams that blanked the opposition last weekend will collide head-on to wrap up the round.

As mentioned above, the Ospreys shut out Zebre 24-0 to pick up their first win of the season, while the Warriors whipped the Dragons 49-0.

Had it not been for a last-gasp Benetton drop goal, Glasgow would’ve been unbeaten. They’ve shown a lot more than their hosts and should deliver an away win.

Prediction: Glasgow Warriors by 5.
Suggested Bet: Glasgow Warriors -4 at 1.90.