United Rugby Championship Predictions – Round 1

After finally coming good last season and seizing the trophy, Leinster are the overwhelming favourites to retain the title at 1.57 outright. The Bulls follow at 5.50, and the Sharks and Munster share 9.00 odds each. The Stormers and Glasgow Warriors come next with odds of 15.00, while the Lions are 11th at 81.00.

The competition kicks off with a blockbuster in Cape Town, where the Stormers square off against Leinster on Friday night, where after the Sharks have a tough opener against the Warriors in Glasgow.

The Bulls and Lions face Welsh opposition on Saturday. The men from Pretoria play host to the Ospreys, while the Pride take on Cardiff in the Welsh capital.

Stormers v Leinster

Friday, 26 September – 19:00

It’s a juicy one to get us going as the inaugural champions face the defending champions. Neither side is at full strength, with their respective internationals MIA, but it should still be a cracker.

Sporting a new logo, their first rebrand in nearly three decades, the Stormers are out to make a fresh start by firing a significant shot first up against the Irish giants.

The Capetonians had to rally in the back end of their campaign to qualify for the quarter-finals last season, where their journey ended in Glasgow; hence, they’re hell-bent on making home ground advantage count come Friday.

John Dobson’s men have a winning record of 2-1-1 against Leinster, which not many teams can boast. They won both previous clashes between the sides in Cape Town, triumphing 20-13 in 2022 and 42-12 in 2024, and I’m tipping them to keep that streak intact.

Prediction: Stormers by 2.

Ulster v Dragons

Friday, 26 September – 21:05

Ulster were last season’s biggest disappointments. For a club with a proud history, the men from Belfast under-delivered big time, finishing 14th, the worst of the Irish teams.

The Dragons were even more dreadful, managing just a solitary win to end a long campaign with the wooden spoon, but the Welsh side were expected to struggle.

Ulster will be keen to get off on the right foot, and they should against a side they haven’t lost to in a decade. 

Prediction: Ulster by 17.

Glasgow Warriors v Sharks

Friday, 26 September – 21:05

Last season’s losing semi-finalists will cross swords in Glasgow.

The Sharks had their best campaign last term, winning the South African Shield and reaching the final four for the first time, where they were bested 25-13 by the Bulls, while the Warriors’ reign came to an end courtesy of a 37-19 loss to Leinster.

Having a plethora of Springboks has been a double-edged sword for the Durbanites. They can look like world-beaters at full strength, but go from contenders to pretenders without them. Thus, they’re in for a tough tour to start with, which includes a stop in Dublin.

Factor in that they start off with a flyhalf problem, and the Warriors should be too strong for them.  

Prediction: Glasgow Warriors by 20.

Bulls v Ospreys

Saturday, 27 September – 14:00

After being the bridesmaids in three of the four seasons under Jake White, Johan Ackermann has been brought in to seal the deal this season, and with excellent acquisitions like Handre Pollard, Jan Serfontein, and Nicolaas Janse van Rensburg (to name a few), the Bulls could very well clinch the crown this time around.

Ackermann is not only a world-class coach, but a genuine, top-tier man manager as well. The God-fearing, hard-grafting maestro who took the Lions to back-to-back Super Rugby finals in 2016 and 2017 is a perfect fit for the Pretoria franchise and has been focusing on foundations and fitness in the pre-season.

He has a long list of injuries to deal with already, on top of having his star players on national duty, but there’s no reason why the Ackermann era shouldn’t kick off with a commanding win, as the Ospreys had a losing record (7-10-1) and finished 12th last season.

Prediction: Bulls by 21.

Zebre v Edinburgh

Saturday, 27 September – 16:05

Zebre showed vast improvement last season. The Italian minnows recorded five wins, which saw them avoid the wooden spoon and earned Massimo Brunello the Coach of the Season award.

Edinburgh, meanwhile, progressed to the playoffs but had more hiccups than anticipated, winning just eight games, the least of the top eight. Fifteen bonus points helped them finish seventh, setting up a date with the Bulls in Pretoria, where they went down 42-33.

Even though the Scottish side were unable to get one over Zebre last season, with a 25-all draw in Parma following a shock 22-17 home loss earlier in the campaign, they should be good for the win this time around.

Prediction: Edinburgh by 4.

Scarlets v Munster

Saturday, 27 September – 18:30

Both of these teams reached the playoffs last season and will seek to position themselves a bit better this campaign.

Munster finished sixth, which meant a last-eight trip to Durban, where they were eliminated via a dramatic penalty shootout, while the Scarlets’ reward for finishing eighth was a trip to Dublin, where they lost 33-21.

Champions in the second season of the cross-hemisphere competition, Muster harbour hopes of returning to those heights, and they should have enough class to kick things off with a win.

Prediction: Munster by 5.

Connacht v Benetton

Saturday, 27 September – 20:45

After a disappointing 13th-place finish last season, Connacht are determined to climb the ladder this season. However, they have a challenging opening assignment against Benetton, who missed out on the playoffs by just two points last term.

The key for me in this matchup is where it’s being played. Connacht have a dominant run of 10 straight wins over the Italians, all at home, including a 38-30 victory last season.

Add to that the fact that Benetton generally struggled on the road last season, winning just three of their nine away games, and Connacht look set to prevail.   

Prediction: Connacht by 7.

Cardiff v Lions

Saturday, 27 September – 20:45

Qualifying for the playoffs for the first time will once again be the Lions’ goal this season, and one has to think it’s last chance saloon for Ivan van Rooyen.

The Pride are an exciting bunch but so often get in their own way. Their fans will be hoping last weekend’s Currie Cup final isn’t a sign of things to come after their side suffered a shock 27-25 defeat to major underdogs Griquas at Ellis Park and lost newly recruited flyhalf Chris Smith to injury in the process.

Cardiff won the Welsh Shield and finished two spots above the Lions in ninth place last season. They’re a team the Johannesburg side have had success against with three wins from four, including a 31-18 victory in Cardiff in 2022, but they did lose their last game there 20-17.

The Lions are certainly capable of winning in the Welsh capital but after last weekend’s Currie Cup decider disaster, I have to side with the home team.

Prediction: Cardiff by 3.