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Six Nations Predictions – Round 1

Steeped in history and tradition, this year’s Six Nations will get underway with a new wrinkle in the form of a Thursday night blockbuster in Paris, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

Over the course of seven weeks, defending champions France, England, Ireland, Italy, Scotland and Wales will compete across five rounds of fixtures.

The Championship concludes with the iconic Super Saturday on March 14th, where all three final-round matches are played, often deciding the title in dramatic fashion.

The odds-makers have France as title favourites at 1.66 outright, followed by England (3.40) and Ireland (7.00), with Scotland (13.00) being rank outsiders and Wales (1.51.00) and Italy (151.00) also-rans.

The Northern Hemisphere showpiece kicks off on Thursday night with France hosting Ireland in a blockbuster opening clash at Stade de France. It will be the first time a Championship match is played on a Thursday in the Six Nations era, and the first overall since 1948, when it was the Five Nations and Ireland claimed a rare win on French soil on New Year’s Day.

The action resumes on Saturday with Italy and Scotland crossing swords in Rome, and England facing Wales in the annual Anglo-Welsh clash at Twickenham.

France v Ireland

Thursday, 5 February – 22:15

Heavy is the head that wears the crown. Defending champions France don’t just have a target on their chests, they are also saddled with the weight of expectation.

No other team in world rugby, bar the No. 1-ranked Springboks, have greater depth than Les Bleus, so even though they enter the Championship with some key players out injured, their deep talent pool – headlined by the returning Antoine Dupont – is expected to carry them to a successful title defence.

Their favourable draw is another reason why they are tipped to go back-to-back as they will have all-important home ground advantage in both of the Championship’s key clashes, Thursday night’s showdown with Ireland, and the tournament-ending Le Crunch.

Winners in 2023 and 2024, Ireland’s predictable regression saw them finish third last year and suffer emphatic losses to the All Blacks (26-13) and Springboks (24-13) at the end of the season.

With seemingly no succession plan and an over-reliance on veteran stars, Ireland were always going to fall from grace, and with injuries aplenty, their struggles are set to continue unless Andy Farrell somehow cooks up a fresh winning formula.

The Irish are particularly light and vulnerable upfront due to injuries, so expect France to get off to a perfect start in Paris and become the inaugural winners of the new Solidarity Trophy.

Prediction: France by 14.

Suggested Bet: France -12 at 1.90.

Italy v Scotland

Saturday, 7 February – 16:10

No longer wooden spoonists by default, Italy have made notable strides over the last two seasons. Gonzalo Quesada’s men had a strong 2024 Championship, which included wins over Scotland and Wales, and a draw against France.

And even though they couldn’t replicate those results last year, with just a 22-15 win over Wales to their name, their 26-19 victory over the Wallabies in November showed they shouldn’t be overlooked. 

That the ever-optimistic Scots went 6-6 overall last year, and four of those wins came over the Maori All Blacks, Samoa, USA and Tonga, tells you everything you need to know about a side, who, to put it kindly, are spinning their wheels.

Finn Russell is one of the game’s great playmakers and an attraction Scottish rugby needs to draw crowds at home and, in this case, generate buzz and interest, but he’s consistently inconsistent and to be fair, can only do so much on his own. 

The Azzurri will fancy their chances of pipping the Scots, like they did the last time they met on Italian soil (31-29), but the fact that the rumble in Rome is Scotland’s first assignment as opposed to later in the Championship where complacency could’ve been more of a possibility, should see the visitors leave victorious.

Prediction: Scotland by 8.

Suggested Bet: Italy +9 at 1.90.

England v Wales

Saturday, 7 February – 18:40

Will this be England’s year?

That’s the question on everybody’s lips going into the 2026 Championship.

The sleeping giant that was England emerged from its slumber after a 2025 campaign-opening 27-22 defeat in Dublin and went the rest of the year unbeaten.

A 26-25 triumph over France sparked the fire that would set the rugby world ablaze, with Steve Borthwick’s men marching to 11 straight wins, including statement victories over the All Blacks (33-19) and Wallabies (25-7).

The form team in world rugby, they’ll launch an all-out assault on the Six Nations crown, which they last held in 2020, and are equally driven to clinch their first Grand Slam since 2016.

Their first step on that journey will see them walk all over Wales, who endured a second successive winless Championship last term and seem destined to finish with the wooden spoon for a third year in a row.

The Dragons did manage to snap their record 18-game losing streak with a 31-22 away win over Japan in July, but only earned one more win in 2025, a last-gasp 24-23 triumph against the selfsame Brave Blossoms in Cardiff in November, which marked their first victory under new coach Steve Tandy.

England walloped them 68-14 last year and they’ll use the hapless Welsh to send a message to France and Ireland.

Prediction: England by 30.

Suggested Bet: England -29 at 1.90.

Quintin Van Jaarsveld is a former MDDA-Sanlam SA Local Sports Journalist of the Year and a former three-time Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal Sports Journalist of the Year. Formerly the sports editor and Outstanding Journalist of the Year award winner at The Fever Media Group, deputy editor at eHowzit, editor at SARugby.com and senior staff writer at Rugby365.com, he boasts over 15 years’ experience and is currently a freelance sports writer.

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