Rugby Championship Predictions – Round 3

Before the blockbuster in Auckland, rugby lovers are in for a compelling contest as the Wallabies tackle the Pumas in Townsville. As the first two rounds showed, anything can happen in this year’s Southern Hemisphere showpiece, so strap in for an epic round of action.

Australia v Argentina

Saturday, 6 September – 06:30

“Who are you calling also-rans?” That’s what these two teams, written off as far as title contenders are concerned, said through their famous wins, Australia in their all-time epic 38-22 comeback victory over the Boks at Ellis Park in Round One, and Argentina with their 29-23 triumph over the All Blacks in Round Two.

The Wallabies punched well above their weight against South Africa, showing true grit and vast improvement to thoroughly trouble their hosts. Had James O’Connor not missed three crucial late kicks in Cape Town, they might’ve won both Tests instead of dropping the rematch 28-20, but they’ll nevertheless be buoyed having ‘won’ 58-50 on aggregate.

After a poor first-half performance led to a disappointing 41-24 opening round loss against New Zealand, the Pumas showed just what they’re capable of when they click to turn the tables and secure their first-ever win over the Kiwis on home soil in the rematch.

They’ve had good results against Australia in recent years as well, and while it should be close, the Argentinians are just too inconsistent for me to back them against the resurgent Wallabies.   

Prediction: Australia by 5.

Suggested Bet: Argentina +6 at 1.90.

New Zealand v South Africa

Saturday, 16 August – 23:10

It’s a clash of epic proportions. Not only is it the biggest Test of the year, but it’s also the biggest game since these two great nations and arch-rivals met in the 2023 Rugby World Cup final in Paris, which the Boks won 12-11. It’s the No. 1-ranked team on the planet, the All Blacks, against the No. 2-ranked back-to-back world champion Springboks at the home of New Zealand rugby.

The iconic Eden Park is rugby’s most notorious graveyard for visiting teams. The All Blacks are on an unprecedented 50-match unbeaten streak in the Auckland fortress, dating back 31 years. Rassie Erasmus’ charges will be storming the gates looking to break that streak and become the first South African side to triumph at the venue since the Bok vintage of 1937.

Currently on their longest winning streak over the Kiwis in the professional era, the men in Green and Gold will aim to make it five in a row against the old foe, while the All Blacks will be hell-bent on defending their yard and giving one of their legendary servants, Ardie Savea, a victory to savour in his 100th Test.

While they are indeed the top two teams in the world, both have been humbled and have plenty of work-ons heading into Saturday. South Africa may have bounced back from their shock 38-22 opening round loss to the Wallabies with a 30-22 victory in the rematch, but it wasn’t the Boklash that was expected.

The mass changes Erasmus has consistently made to the side this season have kept South Africa from establishing all-important synergy. By selecting his best possible team for Saturday’s blockbuster, the Boks should enjoy more familiarity and endure less frustration.

The All Blacks have the weight of a nation on their shoulders. All the pressure is on them, especially after their historic loss in Buenos Aires last time out. Scott Robinson hasn’t lived up to expectations as All Blacks mentor, and serious questions about his aptitude to coach at the highest level will be asked if the hosts lose this one.

Though the Boks have bounced around between strategies as of late, they should be their old bruising selves on Saturday. Expect them to bank on their traditional smash-mouth, territory-based ways. The breakdown remains an area of concern for them, but they always lift their physicality and intensity against the All Blacks tenfold, which should iron out a lot of their other gremlins.

Similarly, given who they’re playing against and what they’re playing for, one can expect the All Blacks to level up significantly. That said, their discipline has been dreadful. It cost them the rematch against Argentina, and considering the pressure they’ll be under, amplified by the physical onslaught they’ll have to survive, they may well bleed a card or two.

Therefore, the Boks – given their pedigree – are underdogs worth backing.

Prediction: South Africa by 1.

Suggested Bet: South Africa at 2.30.