EPCR Challenge Cup Predictions – Round 1

Joining the South African representatives on the gold rush are clubs from France, England, Wales, Georgia, Italy and Ireland.

The 18 clubs have been split into three pools of six, with two TOP 14 clubs in each pool. Clubs from the same United Rugby Championship Shield and from the PREM, as well as the two invitees, have been kept apart.

The four highest-ranked clubs from each pool will qualify for the knockout stage, where they will be joined by the clubs who finished fifth in their respective Investec Champions Cup pools.

The Lions will be the first South African side in action when they welcome Benetton to Ellis Park on Saturday, while the Cheetahs start their campaign at Sandy Park, where they collide with the Exeter Chiefs.

Ulster v Racing 92

Friday, 5 December – 22:00

Ulster enter the competition in good shape. The Irish outfit have won all but one of their six URC games to date, including battering Benetton 47-13 last weekend.

On the flip side, Racing have struggled for consistency in the TOP 14, where results have not met expectations. They’ve also lost their last four away fixtures.

With the form Ulster are in, they should clinch a comfortable win.

Prediction: Ulster by 14.

Lions v Benetton

Saturday, 6 December – 15:00

With no shortage of skill, ambition and momentum, the Lions will look to produce their best Challenge Cup campaign yet this season. In their inaugural season (2022-23), they reached the quarter-finals, where they were eliminated by the Glasgow Warriors, and have bowed out at the Round of 16 stage in the last two seasons.

Fresh off a fantastic 43-33 win over a much-fancied Bulls team at Loftus Versfeld that stretched their winning streak to three, the Pride are full of confidence. Benetton, meanwhile, are on a three-match skid and, as mentioned above, went down by 34 against Ulster last weekend.

The Italians have lost their last five away games and nine of their last 10. Their last triumph on the road? A 42-31 win over the Lions in April. However, the men from Joburg are showing a greater tactical appreciation now than they did back then, whilst still being lethal in transition, and should thus get the job done.

Prediction: Lions by 10.

Stade Francais v Cardiff

Saturday, 6 December – 15:00

One of the competition’s glamour sides, Stade Francais boast powerful forwards, dynamic ball-carriers and a home crowd that turns Stade Jean-Bouin into a cauldron.

Their blend of heavyweight Parisians and explosive young talent makes them difficult to contain once they build momentum, and the Challenge Cup has often been a platform for them to unleash their attacking flair with fewer restraints than in the TOP 14 grind.

Cardiff are in cracking form, with their 29-14 away victory over Zebre last weekend stretching their winning streak to four and moving them up to second place in the URC. What they lack in star power compared to Stade Francais, they often make up for in work rate, tactical smarts and an ability to hang in contests longer than expected.

However, travelling to Paris and matching the hosts’ physicality over 80 minutes will be a tough ask. Expect Stade Francais to pull away down the stretch.

Prediction: Stade Francais by 11.

Black Lion v Montpellier

Saturday, 6 December – 17:15

Black Lion continue to grow in confidence on the European stage, and this is a chance for them to show how far they’ve come. The Georgian outfit are rugged, intensely physical and incredibly proud at home, where their scrum and maul often become genuine weapons.

Montpellier, however, bring a level of depth, speed and top-tier experience that Black Lion have not faced often. Their pack is powerful enough to meet Georgia’s finest head-on, and their backline carries far more cutting edge when the game loosens up.

Even with their inconsistency in recent seasons, Montpellier still possess international-calibre players and should secure a hard-earned away win.

Prediction: Montpellier by 7.

Lyon v Newcastle Red Bulls

Saturday, 6 December – 19:30

Last season’s runners-up Lyon come into this fixture as clear favourites, especially at home, where their blend of size, skill and tempo tends to overwhelm visiting sides.

In front of their home supporters, Lyon typically play with greater ambition and physical authority, and their set-piece is strong enough to give them a steady platform throughout the match. If they dictate the pace, they can put points up quickly.

Newcastle Red Bulls, meanwhile, are 0-6 and at the bottom of the PREM table. They have moments of individual sparks, but sustaining pressure against a team as polished as Lyon, especially away from home, will be a major challenge for them.

Chalk up a commanding win for the French hosts.

Prediction: Lyon by 35.

Zebre v US Montauban

Saturday, 6 December – 22:00

Under Massimo Brunello, Zebre have shown signs of real improvement in the URC, grabbing early wins over Edinburgh and the Lions. Their backline may still struggle for consistency, but their pace provides a dangerous counter-attacking weapon that can punish any lapse.

US Montauban make their long-awaited return to European competition after 15 years away. They will be hungry, but their results in the TOP 14, where they just have one win, show they’re set to struggle.

Prediction: Zebre by 5.

Perpignan v Dragons

Sunday, 7 December – 15:00

Bar a stalemate, which would just be cruel, one of these two embattled teams will finally end their drought on Sunday.

Bottom-dwellers in the TOP 14 and URC respectively, Perpignan are 0-11 this season, while the Dragons are winless in their last 19 games. Home ground advantage should prove decisive in this one.

Prediction: Perpignan by 5.

Ospreys v Connacht

Sunday, 7 December – 17:15

The Ospreys have only managed one win in the UFC so far, a 24-0 victory over Zebre, and drew 19-all with the dreadful Dragons, leaving them 13th.

Connacht got their campaign back on track with a 44-17 win over the Sharks last weekend, which moved them up to eighth position. They have a lot more weapons in their arsenal and should shoot down their hosts.

Prediction: Connacht by 10.

Exeter Chiefs v Cheetahs

Sunday, 7 December – 19:30

The Cheetahs return to the international stage as one of the two invited teams hungry to reach the quarter-finals for the first time. The Free Staters have twice made it to the Round of 16 and want to give a better representation of who they are and their potential this time around after failing to progress out of the pool phase last season.

Unfortunately, they have a tough opener away from home against an inform Chiefs side, who are second in the PREM with four wins, one loss and a draw from their six matches to date. They’ve earned back-to-back wins on the domestic front, while the Cheetahs are coming out of the freezer, so the hosts should prevail.

Prediction: Exeter Chiefs by 12.