F1: Italian Grand Prix Preview and Betting Tips

Oscar Piastri extended his lead in the standings to 34 points after Lando Norris’ spectacular retirement at the Dutch GP.

Now the team’s attention turns to the high-speed circuit of Monza known as the Temple of Speed. Can McLaren emulate their 2021 success of a one-two finish that saw Daniel Ricciardo lead home Norris? Let’s unpack what we can expect this weekend in Italy and if anyone can challenge the McLarens.

The Track

Built in 1922, Monza has been on the F1 calendar every year since 1950, except for one. 2025 marks the 75th anniversary of Monza hosting the Italian GP, showing how ingrained the circuit is in the sport. It’s Ferrari’s home race too, which means the team’s fans, known as Tifosi, are out in full force and turn the stands into a wave of red flags and red smoke.

The circuit is 5.793km in length and has two DRS zones. Due to its fast layout, all teams run their lowest aerodynamic downforce configuration to maximise their straight line speed. The longest flat-out section is 1520m, and the average number of gear changes are 36. Of course, the drivers must tiptoe around the chicane in the first sector, so it’s not all pedal to the metal.

Cars are on full throttle for 84% of the lap, and in last year’s pole lap, Norris averaged close to 265km/h.

According to Pirelli, overtaking at Monza can prove difficult because of the cars running low downforce, and the DRS isn’t as effective. This results in favour of a one-stop strategy, which proved a winning one for Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc last year.

The McLarens remain favourites, but will there be an upset?

McLaren has not won at Monza in four years and finished second and third to Leclerc last year. The papaya coloured team will keep a keen eye on reliability issues this weekend, after Norris’ unfortunate DNF at Zandvoort.

Team boss Andrea Stella said: “The team and drivers remain motivated to maximise our pace this weekend, taking on the low-down force challenges of Monza, where we strive to continue our current level of competitiveness.”

Piastri is the favourite to go one better than P2 in 2024, while Norris feels the pressure has been reduced on his chances of winning a maiden driver’s title. Max Verstappen, winner in 2022 and 2023, finished second in Zandvoort last week will be challenging in and around the podium spots. The Red Bull has been a handful dealing with kerbs, of which Monza has a few.

It would be silly to ignore the Ferraris. The team suffered a DNF in Zandvoort and will show off upgrades like most teams. Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton will have the home crowd behind them, but need a strong qualifying display to give them the best chance of scoring points on Sunday. The Monegasque driver remains one of the quickest in the world over one lap, and he’ll need to channel last year’s performance to try and win here again.

Further down the field, look out for Williams, whose car has strong straight-line speed. Carlos Sainz has had a bad run of form and luck and will hope to do well this weekend. Haas and Sauber could be dark horses in the race for points, while the midfield will be packed once again with Racing Bull and Aston Martin vying to be in the top 10.

It should be a fascinating weekend at the Temple of Speed.

Predictions

Grand Prix Winner: Piastri

Grand Prix Podium: Piastri, Leclerc, Norris

Pole Position: Leclerc

Top 4 and 5: Verstappen, Hamilton

Finish in the points: Albon, Sainz, Hadjar

Race Winning Margin: Under 5 seconds

Fastest Lap: Leclerc

First to Retire: Tsunoda

First car to retire: Red Bull

Most Team Points: McLaren

Both Cars Qualify for Q3 Shootout: Ferrari

Ferrari Practice 1/2/3 Winning Car: Leclerc / Ferrari

Safety Car: Yes

Fastest pit stop: Ferrari