United Rugby Championship Predictions – Round 12

It’ll be war on the Highveld with the Lions hosting the Stormers at Ellis Park and the Bulls battling the Sharks at Loftus Versfeld. Will home ground advantage prove decisive, or will the coastal sides strike gold?

Here’s how we see things playing out:

Cardiff v Leinster

Friday, 27 February – 21:00

Kicking off the action is a compelling clash of teams in the top five.

Cardiff have emerged as darkhorses this season, going 7-4 to put themselves in fifth place. The only Welsh team in the top half of the table, they fell short against Ulster (21-14) before the break, but that was in Belfast.

They’ve been outstanding at home, winning nine of their last 10 in all competitions, with the lone loss being a 21-17 reverse to the Scarlets in December. Thus, they’ll be confident and should receive a bit of backing on the betting front.

I’ll be sticking with Leinster, though. The Irish giants are third and on a five-match winning streak in all competitions, including a 34-23 away win over Connacht without their army of internationals.

It’s due to that remarkable depth that I see them getting it done in the Welsh capital.

Prediction: Leinster by 5.

Suggested Bet: Cardiff +7 at 1.90.

Edinburgh v Scarlets

Friday, 27 February – 21:45

Two teams who have been going through it this season square off in the other game on Friday night.

Edinburgh have been bitterly disappointing, with losses to the Bulls (19-17) at home and Leinster (28-20) away in their last two outings leaving them in lowly 13th position.

Even though the Scarlets were expected to struggle, it came as a surprise that they dropped below the Dragons as the poorest-performing Welsh team.

Second from bottom, they did make encouraging progress with a 27-22 upset over Ulster and a 20-all draw with Benetton, but the break robbed them of an opportunity to ride that small wave of momentum.

Edinburgh haven’t lost at home to the Scarlets since 2021 and that’s not going to change in this one.

Prediction: Edinburgh by 10.

Suggested Bet: Scarlets -13 at 1.90.

Lions v Stormers

Saturday, 28 February – 14:30

The Lions had a bit of a lay-up last weekend with the Sharks fielding an understrength team against them, but they still had to deliver and deliver they did. The Pride pulled off the perfect result, claiming the full five log points while sending the Sharks home empty-handed with their 34-22 victory.

It was the ideal way to bounce back from the humiliating 52-17 hammering by the Bulls, moving them up to seventh on the log and closing the gap between them and the Durbanites to one point in the South African Shield. Should they turn back the Stormers and the Bulls beat the Sharks, the Lions will clinch the South African Shield for the first time.

With that added motivation, and the Stormers’ desperation to get back on track after back-to-back defeats to the Sharks, sparks will fly at Ellis Park. Having hosted the only URC fixture last weekend, a rescheduled Round Eight encounter, the Lions could be sharper than their visitors and will look to get off to a fast start.

Unbeaten and topping the table prior to their mini series against the Sharks, the Stormers renew their campaign in third place and are hell-bent on rediscovering the balance and accuracy that made them the pacesetters for much of the first half of the regular season.

The break came at the perfect time for the Capetonians, affording them time to debrief and recalibrate. They’ve won seven of the nine URC meetings against the Lions, including a 34-27 triumph at home in December, but lost 30-23 on their previous visit to Joburg, so they know they’re in for a fight.

Given their quality and the time the Stormers have had to pinpoint where they went wrong and how to correct course, I see them doing just that with a narrow win.

Prediction: Stormers by 6.

Suggested Bet: Stormers -5 at 1.90.

Bulls v Sharks

Saturday, 28 February – 17:00

After taking two steps forward with brilliant wins over the Stormers, the Sharks took one step back at Ellis Park last weekend.

The decision to leave several Springboks out of the team was truly baffling, considering it was the first game under JP Pietersen as permanent head coach and the fact that victory would’ve sealed the South African Shield for a second successive season.

Because of the taxing schedule for South African players, man management has become more important than ever for local coaches. Springboks must, as per SA Rugby protocols, rest a certain number of weeks, but the decision to do it in bulk last weekend backfired spectacularly.

The damage, potentially, isn’t done as it could be doubled if the Bok-laden Sharks – who are in 10th place – falter against a talent-rich Bulls team at Loftus Versfeld on Saturday.

Miss a second bite at the South African Shield cherry, and they can kiss it goodbye. The Sharks are a world-class outfit at full-strength, as they will be this weekend, but can still struggle to find their rhythm.

The eighth-placed Bulls appear to have found their footing under Johan Ackermann and his new assistants. Their aforementioned thumping of the Lions last time out made it three wins in a row in all competitions and was vintage Bulls.

If they stick to that pragmatic power game, they should avenge their 21-12 defeat in Durban in December and keep their place in the top eight.

Prediction: Bulls by 3.

Suggested Bet: Sharks +10 at 1.90.

Connacht v Glasgow Warriors

Saturday, 28 February – 17:00

On the surface, you wouldn’t think that a team in 12th place would have much of a chance against the table-toppers who’ve lost just two games this season.

However, with Connacht far less affected by players on Six Nations duty than Glasgow, the lowly Irish side are small favourites.

A win for the hosts, which would be just their fourth, could see Leinster leapfrog the Warriors if the Irishmen triumph in Cardiff, and would also do the third-ranked Stormers a favour.

Galway is a miserable place to play rugby, especially as the visiting team, but Franco Smith has done such an excellent job with the Warriors that I’m backing their depth to extend their winning streak in all competitions to 10.

Prediction: Glasgow Warriors by 2.

Suggested Bet: Glasgow Warriors at 2.25.

Dragons v Benetton

Saturday, 28 February – 19:30

The Dragons have shown signs of life in recent outings but still struggle to get results.

Their 28-5 victory over the Scarlets in their last home game was just their second of the campaign and was followed by narrow losses to Munster (22-20) and the Ospreys (19-13).

With just 18 points to their name, the 14th-ranked Welsh team don’t have a realistic chance of rallying and snatching a place in the playoffs. Benetton do, but they have to win games like these to make such a push.

Winless in their last three games, the break would’ve done the 11th-placed Italians wonders and I expect their tactical superiority to prove decisive.

Prediction: Benetton by 6.

Suggested Bet: Benetton -1 at 1.90.

Munster v Zebre

Saturday, 28 February – 19:30

Munster’s drop-off since losing the battle of the unbeaten to the Stormers is well-documented. They’ve won just one of their last six games in all competitions and have fallen to sixth place on the log.

However, it’s that very decline that will ensure they don’t overlook Zebre. The Italians are bottom of the barrel with just two wins this season, and with Munster fully focused on the task at hand, they’ll condemn the visitors to their 10th straight defeat in the league.

Prediction: Munster by 18.

Suggested Bet: Zebre +24 at 1.90.

Ospreys v Ulster

Saturday, 28 February – 21:45

Sharks supporters should tune in for this clash.

The Ospreys are one spot and one point ahead of the Durbanites in ninth, so Sharks fans should be rooting for Ulster to do their team a favour.

Luckily for them, the fifth-placed Irish outfit should do just that. It’s not a given by any stretch, as Ulster haven’t triumphed over the Ospreys in Wales in almost six years, but the boys from Belfast should break that drought on Saturday night.

Prediction: Ulster by 3.

Suggested Bet: Ospreys +6 at 1.90.