Six Nations Predictions – Round 5

The 2026 edition of the Northern Hemisphere showpiece has served up more shocks than any before it and will go down to the wire with France, Scotland and Ireland all in title contention.

Ireland and Scotland will go head-to-head in Dublin to kick off the final round, before Wales play host to Italy in Cardiff. Then it’s time for a blockbuster finale as France face England in Paris.

Title Permutations:

The fate of the 2026 Championship remains firmly in the hands of the top three.

Here is how they can be crowned champions on Saturday:

France (16 points, +79 PD)

France remain in the driver’s seat thanks to their superior points difference.

The simplest path: A victory over England in Paris will secure the title for Les Bleus.

Safety net: Even if they do not secure a bonus point, a win is sufficient to hold off both Scotland and Ireland, given their massive advantage in points difference.

Scotland (16 points, +21 PD)

Scotland’s spectacular 50-40 win over France last weekend catapulted them into contention for their first-ever Six Nations title.

The path: Scotland must defeat Ireland in Dublin.

Title hope: If Scotland win and France lose to England, Scotland will be champions.

Bonus points: Scotland could potentially win the title if they secure a bonus-point victory over Ireland while France beat England without a bonus point (though this would still require a significant swing in points difference).

Ireland (14 points, +16 PD)

Ireland need to win and hope for a favour from England.

The path: Ireland must beat Scotland at the Aviva Stadium to reach 18 or 19 points.

Title hope: If Ireland defeat Scotland and France lose to England, Ireland would overtake France in the standings to reclaim the trophy.

Final Round Fixtures:

Ireland v Scotland

Saturday, 13 March – 16:10

Scotland are daring to dream of a first-ever Six Nations title after the most remarkable of recovery missions.

Using the opening round upset in Rome as motivation, the Scots ended England’s year-long undefeated streak emphatically, survived a scare in Cardiff and produced their best performance in the Gregor Townsend era to dismantle France and blow the title race wide open.

After so many false ‘dawns’ over the years, this could finally be Scotland’s time to go to the next level. Victory in Dublin would earn them their first Triple Crown since 1990, and possibly their maiden Six Nations title.

Even if France do beat England to retain the title in the tournament finale, a Triple Crown triumph and runner-up finish would be a breakthrough Scottish rugby has needed for decades.

Ireland stand in their way and have their own hopes of pulling off a trophy double. Like Scotland, they’ve won three on the trot since starting their campaign with a loss in Paris to keep their championship aspirations alive.

Coming off a hard-fought 27-17 win over Wales last weekend, they would retain the Triple Crown with victory on Saturday and give themselves a shot at snatching the Six Nations title.

Given how many shocking results there have been this year and that this Scotland side are on a high they’ve never experienced before, I’m backing the visitors to edge it.

Prediction: Scotland by 1.

Suggested Bet: Scotland at 2.75.

Wales v Italy

Saturday, 13 March – 18:40

Wales can’t escape the indignity of another wooden spoon, but they’ll be desperate to avoid a third consecutive winless campaign when they battle the impressive Italians.

The Dragons have been unable to break their Championship drought, with their losing streak now at 15, but they showed vast improvement in their last two outings. If they can replicate the showings that saw them push Scotland and England close, they might just secure that elusive win they’re yearning for.

That said, Italy are firm favourites and rightfully so after their historic 23-18 triumph over England last weekend. They’re a rising force, as their tournament-opening victory over Scotland also showed, and if they keep their feet on the ground, they should finish with a third win to wrap up a strong campaign.

Prediction: Italy by 6.

Suggested Bet: Italy -4 at 1.90.

France v England

Saturday, 13 March – 22:10

With their Grand Slam dreams dashed in stunning fashion by the Scots, France face a major examination of their mental makeup on Saturday.

As the Championship decider, ‘Le Crunch’ is the biggest game for Les Bleus since their 2023 Rugby World Cup quarter-final against the Springboks at the same venue.

It took ages for Fabian Galthie and his troops to get over that devastating defeat to South Africa, and this is the first time they’re facing similar pressure to what they did in that seismic showdown.

After the shock loss to Scotland, one has to wonder if the French, who’d looked unshakable before the Murrayfield nightmare, are wrestling demons of doubt this week.

Yes, they have home ground advantage but with that comes the weight of expectation from a crowd demanding a silverware-sealing rebound. It’s all or nothing time for Antoine Dupont and company, and if they melt in the Paris cauldron, heads could and should roll.

Fortunately for France, the fact that England are enduring a full-blown identity crisis counts in their favour. Many believe Steve Borthwick’s men have been exposed as pretenders in recent weeks.